The Ascent Collection
A case on csgo.net (Collection), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is csgo.net's own item price.
Price
$0.40
Advertised RTP
77.14%
EV $0.31 from 6 items
Observed RTP, 30d
100.28%
224 openings, odds method
Variance
0.9×
of price², per opening
Tail share
33.5%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
66.5%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Outside band, 30 days. Advertised 78.01% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (87.20% – 113.36%, 224 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values6 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 224 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M4A1-S | Stratosphere (Field-Tested)weapon · Classified | 1 in 171 | $3.44 | 6.5% | 4 | 1.3 | 3.06× |
| AK-47 | Midnight Laminate (Field-Tested)weapon · Mythical | 1 in 57 | $2.32 | 13.1% | 6 | 3.9 | 1.54× |
| USP-S | Royal Guard (Field-Tested)weapon · uncommon | 31.2% | $0.46 | 46.7% | 92 | 69.8 | 1.32× |
| P2000 | Royal Baroque (Field-Tested)weapon · blue | 22.8% | $0.16 | 11.9% | 26 | 51.0 | 0.51× |
| FAMAS | Yeti Camo (Field-Tested)weapon · milspec | 22.6% | $0.16 | 11.7% | 44 | 50.7 | 0.87× |
| MP9 | Cobalt Paisley (Field-Tested)weapon · milspec | 21.1% | $0.15 | 10.1% | 36 | 47.3 | 0.76× |
Values are csgo.net's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgo-net:pf_case_ranges, 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 77.14%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC | $0.40 | 77.14% | 6 |
| 11 Nov, 02:44 UTC | $0.40 | 76.93% | 7 |
| 10 Nov, 20:44 UTC | $0.40 | 76.95% | 7 |
| 10 Nov, 14:44 UTC | $0.40 | 77.20% | 7 |
| 10 Nov, 08:34 UTC | $0.40 | 77.51% | 6 |
| 10 Nov, 02:24 UTC | $0.40 | 77.54% | 6 |
| 9 Nov, 20:24 UTC | $0.40 | 77.51% | 6 |
| 9 Nov, 14:24 UTC | $0.40 | 77.62% | 6 |
| 9 Nov, 08:24 UTC | $0.40 | 77.63% | 5 |
| 9 Nov, 02:14 UTC | $0.40 | 78.11% | 7 |
| 9 Nov, 01:55 UTC | $0.40 | 78.14% | 7 |
| 9 Nov, 00:05 UTC | $0.40 | 78.05% | 7 |
| 8 Nov, 18:22 UTC | $0.40 | 78.09% | 7 |
| 8 Nov, 12:22 UTC | $0.40 | 78.11% | 6 |
| 8 Nov, 06:22 UTC | $0.40 | 78.09% | 7 |
| 8 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $0.40 | 78.10% | 7 |
| 7 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $0.40 | 78.10% | 6 |
| 7 Nov, 12:02 UTC | $0.40 | 78.11% | 7 |
| 7 Nov, 06:02 UTC | $0.40 | 78.09% | 7 |
| 7 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $0.40 | 78.06% | 7 |
| 6 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $0.40 | 78.09% | 6 |
| 6 Nov, 11:41 UTC | $0.40 | 78.14% | 7 |
| 6 Nov, 05:21 UTC | $0.40 | 78.46% | 7 |
| 5 Nov, 22:51 UTC | $0.40 | 78.58% | 7 |
| 5 Nov, 16:41 UTC | $0.40 | 78.42% | 5 |
| 5 Nov, 10:41 UTC | $0.40 | 78.17% | 5 |
| 5 Nov, 04:41 UTC | $0.40 | 78.16% | 5 |
| 4 Nov, 22:41 UTC | $0.40 | 78.17% | 5 |
| 4 Nov, 16:31 UTC | $0.40 | 78.23% | 5 |
| 4 Nov, 14:19 UTC | $0.40 | 78.14% | 5 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedClassified 0.6%Mythical 1.7%uncommon 31.2%blue 22.8%milspec 43.8%best hit —