The Boreal Collection
A case on csgo.net (Collection), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is csgo.net's own item price.
Price
$0.48
Advertised RTP
77.83%
EV $0.37 from 5 items
Observed RTP, 30d
88.42%
211 openings, odds method
Variance
0.1×
of price², per opening
Tail share
50.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
73.4%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Outside band, 30 days. Advertised 78.61% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (83.10% – 93.74%, 211 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values5 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 211 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWP | Green Energy (Field-Tested)weapon · #d32ce6 | 1 in 3,299 | $5.84 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| M4A4 | Sheet Lightning (Field-Tested)weapon · #8847ff | 11.3% | $0.62 | 18.8% | 33 | 23.9 | 1.38× |
| Glock-18 | Glockingbird (Field-Tested)weapon · #8847ff | 15.2% | $0.55 | 22.4% | 51 | 32.2 | 1.59× |
| AK-47 | Wintergreen (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff | 23.4% | $0.44 | 27.5% | 38 | 49.3 | 0.77× |
| USP-S | Tropical Breeze (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff | 50.0% | $0.23 | 30.8% | 83 | 105.5 | 0.79× |
Values are csgo.net's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgo-net:pf_case_ranges, 11 Nov, 14:55 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 77.83%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Nov, 14:55 UTC | $0.48 | 77.83% | 5 |
| 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC | $0.48 | 77.60% | 5 |
| 11 Nov, 02:44 UTC | $0.48 | 77.40% | 5 |
| 10 Nov, 20:44 UTC | $0.48 | 77.47% | 5 |
| 10 Nov, 14:44 UTC | $0.48 | 77.75% | 5 |
| 10 Nov, 08:34 UTC | $0.48 | 78.00% | 5 |
| 10 Nov, 02:24 UTC | $0.48 | 78.07% | 5 |
| 9 Nov, 20:24 UTC | $0.48 | 78.05% | 5 |
| 9 Nov, 14:24 UTC | $0.48 | 78.09% | 5 |
| 9 Nov, 08:24 UTC | $0.48 | 78.14% | 5 |
| 9 Nov, 02:14 UTC | $0.48 | 78.63% | 5 |
| 9 Nov, 01:55 UTC | $0.48 | 78.60% | 5 |
| 9 Nov, 00:05 UTC | $0.48 | 78.59% | 5 |
| 8 Nov, 18:22 UTC | $0.48 | 78.63% | 5 |
| 8 Nov, 12:22 UTC | $0.48 | 78.59% | 5 |
| 8 Nov, 06:22 UTC | $0.48 | 78.54% | 5 |
| 8 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $0.48 | 78.37% | 5 |
| 7 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $0.48 | 78.50% | 5 |
| 7 Nov, 12:02 UTC | $0.48 | 78.48% | 5 |
| 7 Nov, 06:02 UTC | $0.48 | 78.42% | 5 |
| 7 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $0.48 | 78.51% | 5 |
| 6 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $0.48 | 78.50% | 5 |
| 6 Nov, 11:41 UTC | $0.48 | 78.63% | 5 |
| 6 Nov, 05:21 UTC | $0.48 | 78.93% | 5 |
| 5 Nov, 22:51 UTC | $0.48 | 78.95% | 5 |
| 5 Nov, 16:41 UTC | $0.48 | 79.17% | 5 |
| 5 Nov, 10:41 UTC | $0.48 | 78.63% | 5 |
| 5 Nov, 04:41 UTC | $0.48 | 78.39% | 5 |
| 4 Nov, 22:41 UTC | $0.48 | 78.89% | 5 |
| 4 Nov, 16:31 UTC | $0.48 | 78.98% | 14 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listed#d32ce6 0.0%#8847ff 26.6%#4b69ff 73.4%best hit —