Canals

A case on csgo.net (Collection), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is csgo.net's own item price.

Price

$6.79

Advertised RTP

76.25%

EV $5.18 from 17 items

Observed RTP, 30d

286.01%

1 openings, odds method

Variance

1.5×

of price², per opening

Tail share

23.4%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

89.0%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

7 days

1 openings · below min

30 days

1 openings · below min

since tracking started

1 openings · below min

53.5%286.0%518.5%

Small sample. 1 openings and 0.2 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	0	—	—	—
7d	1	286.01%±231.8	—	odds
30d	1	286.01%±231.8	—	odds
All	1	286.01%±231.8	—	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values17 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Expected	Hot / cold
AWP \| The Prince (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 198,466	$2,205	0.2%	0.0	—
MAC-10 \| Red Filigree (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 2,559	$102	0.8%	0.0	—
Nova \| Baroque Orange (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 1,558	$85.88	1.1%	0.0	—
MP9 \| Stained Glass (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 1,308	$80.89	1.2%	0.0	—
Dual Berettas \| Emerald (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	1 in 52	$25.35	9.3%	0.0	—
SSG 08 \| Orange Filigree (Minimal Wear)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 51	$25.12	9.5%	0.0	—
P90 \| Baroque Red (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec	1 in 36	$21.75	11.5%	0.0	—
G3SG1 \| Violet Murano (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec	1 in 24	$17.85	14.6%	0.0	—
P250 \| Dark Filigree (Field-Tested)weapon · industrial	12.4%	$4.01	9.6%	0.1	—
SG 553 \| Candy Apple (Field-Tested)weapon · Industrial	11.7%	$3.58	8.1%	0.1	—
Tec-9 \| Orange Murano (Well-Worn)weapon · industrial	11.7%	$3.56	8.0%	0.1	—
AK-47 \| Baroque Purple (Field-Tested)weapon · Uncommon	11.1%	$3.28	7.1%	0.1	—
Negev \| Boroque Sand (Minimal Wear)weapon · consumer	10.4%	$2.95	5.9%	0.1	—
CZ75-Auto \| Indigo (Minimal Wear)weapon · consumer	1 in 10	$2.73	5.2%	0.1	—
AUG \| Navy Murano (Field-Tested)weapon · #777777	1 in 13	$2.09	3.2%	0.1	—
SCAR-20 \| Stone Mosaico (Field-Tested)weapon · Consumer Grade	1 in 14	$1.84	2.6%	0.1	—
R8 Revolver \| Canal Spray (Field-Tested)weapon · Pistols	1 in 15	$1.70	2.2%	0.1	—

Values are csgo.net's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgo-net:pf_case_ranges, 11 Nov, 14:55 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

SSG 08 | Orange Filigree (Field-Tested)weapon · mil specSniG_DP$6.79$19.422.86x6d

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 76.25%

No data in this window

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
11 Nov, 14:55 UTC	$6.79	76.25%	17
11 Nov, 08:54 UTC	$6.79	76.02%	17
11 Nov, 02:44 UTC	$6.79	75.85%	17
10 Nov, 20:44 UTC	$6.79	75.84%	17
10 Nov, 14:44 UTC	$6.79	76.14%	17
10 Nov, 08:34 UTC	$6.79	76.48%	17
10 Nov, 02:24 UTC	$6.79	76.49%	17
9 Nov, 20:24 UTC	$6.79	76.48%	17
9 Nov, 14:24 UTC	$6.79	76.51%	17
9 Nov, 08:24 UTC	$6.79	76.60%	17
9 Nov, 02:14 UTC	$6.79	77.04%	17
9 Nov, 01:55 UTC	$6.79	77.01%	17
9 Nov, 00:05 UTC	$6.79	76.99%	17
8 Nov, 18:22 UTC	$6.79	77.00%	17
8 Nov, 12:22 UTC	$6.79	77.00%	17
8 Nov, 06:22 UTC	$6.79	77.01%	17
8 Nov, 00:02 UTC	$6.79	77.02%	17
7 Nov, 18:02 UTC	$6.79	76.99%	17
7 Nov, 12:02 UTC	$6.79	77.00%	17
7 Nov, 06:02 UTC	$6.79	77.00%	17
7 Nov, 00:02 UTC	$6.79	77.02%	17
6 Nov, 18:02 UTC	$6.79	76.92%	17
6 Nov, 11:41 UTC	$6.79	77.05%	17
6 Nov, 05:21 UTC	$6.79	77.41%	17
5 Nov, 22:51 UTC	$6.79	77.39%	17
5 Nov, 16:41 UTC	$6.79	77.33%	17
5 Nov, 10:41 UTC	$6.79	77.01%	17
5 Nov, 04:41 UTC	$6.79	77.10%	17
4 Nov, 22:41 UTC	$6.79	77.12%	17
4 Nov, 16:31 UTC	$6.79	77.11%	17

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 0.0%restricted 0.2%mil spec 8.9%#4b69ff 1.9%industrial 24.1%Industrial 11.7%Uncommon 11.1%consumer 20.2%#777777 8.0%Consumer Grade 7.2%Pistols 6.7%best hit —