Control

A case on csgo.net (Collection), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is csgo.net's own item price.

Price

$3.39

Advertised RTP

76.06%

EV $2.58 from 19 items

Observed RTP, 30d

395.87%

4 openings, odds method

Variance

1.5×

of price², per opening

Tail share

10.4%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

89.6%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

7 days

4 openings · below min

30 days

4 openings · below min

since tracking started

4 openings · below min

76.0%297.5%519.0%

Small sample. 4 openings and 0.4 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	0	—	—	—
7d	4	395.87%±122.5	—	odds
30d	4	395.87%±122.5	—	odds
All	4	395.87%±122.5	—	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values19 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 5 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
AWP \| Fade (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 186,385	$569	0.1%	0	0.0	—
M4A1-S \| Blue Phosphor (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 178,068	$478	0.1%	0	0.0	—
USP-S \| Target Acquired (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 62,022	$182	0.1%	0	0.0	—
Five-SeveN \| Berries And Cherries (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 6,083	$74.76	0.5%	0	0.0	—
FAMAS \| Prime Conspiracy (Minimal Wear)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 5,894	$73.95	0.5%	0	0.0	—
UMP-45 \| Crime Scene (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 4,684	$68.32	0.6%	0	0.0	—
M4A4 \| Global Offensive (Minimal Wear)weapon · Rare	1 in 82	$16.60	7.9%	2	0.1	—
SSG 08 \| Threat Detected (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec	1 in 45	$13.09	11.4%	1	0.1	—
SCAR-20 \| Magna Carta (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mil Spec Grade	1 in 29	$10.92	14.6%	0	0.2	—
P2000 \| Dispatch (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec	1 in 29	$10.86	14.6%	1	0.2	—
MAG-7 \| Carbon Fiber (Minimal Wear)weapon · Industrial Grade	14.5%	$2.16	12.1%	0	0.7	—
MP5-SD \| Nitro (Field-Tested)weapon · Industrial Grade	13.2%	$1.78	9.1%	0	0.7	—
Dual Berettas \| Switch Board (Field-Tested)weapon · uncommon	12.9%	$1.71	8.5%	0	0.6	—
Desert Eagle \| The Bronze (Minimal Wear)weapon · Uncommon	12.7%	$1.67	8.2%	0	0.6	—
P250 \| Forest Night (Minimal Wear)weapon · gray	1 in 13	$0.90	2.7%	0	0.4	—
XM1014 \| Charter (Minimal Wear)weapon · Common	1 in 13	$0.86	2.5%	0	0.4	—
AUG \| Surveillance (Minimal Wear)weapon · grey	1 in 14	$0.82	2.3%	0	0.4	—
MP9 \| Army Sheen (Field-Tested)weapon · grey	1 in 14	$0.81	2.2%	0	0.4	—
CZ75-Auto \| Jungle Dashed (Field-Tested)weapon · grey	1 in 15	$0.76	2.0%	0	0.3	—

Values are csgo.net's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgo-net:pf_case_ranges, 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

SSG 08 | Threat Detected (Field-Tested)weapon · mil specFS|B|$3.39$12.983.83x2d

P2000 | Dispatch (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil specJota$3.39$11.123.28x3d

M4A4 | Global Offensive (Minimal Wear)weapon · Rarenonyamis$3.39$14.394.24x3d

M4A4 | Global Offensive (Minimal Wear)weapon · Rareg0_0se$3.39$15.194.48x5d

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 76.06%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
11 Nov, 08:54 UTC	$3.39	76.06%	19
11 Nov, 02:44 UTC	$3.39	75.78%	19
10 Nov, 20:44 UTC	$3.39	75.83%	19
10 Nov, 14:44 UTC	$3.39	76.11%	19
10 Nov, 08:34 UTC	$3.39	76.40%	19
10 Nov, 02:24 UTC	$3.39	76.44%	19
9 Nov, 20:24 UTC	$3.39	76.38%	19
9 Nov, 14:24 UTC	$3.39	76.46%	19
9 Nov, 08:24 UTC	$3.39	76.51%	19
9 Nov, 02:14 UTC	$3.39	76.99%	19
9 Nov, 01:55 UTC	$3.39	76.97%	19
9 Nov, 00:05 UTC	$3.39	76.92%	19
8 Nov, 18:22 UTC	$3.39	76.97%	19
8 Nov, 12:22 UTC	$3.39	76.97%	19
8 Nov, 06:22 UTC	$3.39	76.93%	19
8 Nov, 00:02 UTC	$3.39	76.97%	19
7 Nov, 18:02 UTC	$3.39	76.92%	19
7 Nov, 12:02 UTC	$3.39	76.96%	19
7 Nov, 06:02 UTC	$3.39	77.00%	19
7 Nov, 00:02 UTC	$3.39	76.94%	19
6 Nov, 18:02 UTC	$3.39	76.94%	19
6 Nov, 11:41 UTC	$3.39	77.04%	19
6 Nov, 05:21 UTC	$3.39	77.34%	19
5 Nov, 22:51 UTC	$3.39	77.36%	19
5 Nov, 16:41 UTC	$3.39	77.28%	19
5 Nov, 10:41 UTC	$3.39	76.96%	19
5 Nov, 04:41 UTC	$3.39	77.05%	19
4 Nov, 22:41 UTC	$3.39	77.06%	19
4 Nov, 16:31 UTC	$3.39	77.04%	19
4 Nov, 14:19 UTC	$3.39	77.02%	19

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 0.0%classified 0.0%restricted 0.0%#8847ff 0.0%Rare 1.2%mil spec 5.7%Mil Spec Grade 3.4%Industrial Grade 27.7%uncommon 12.9%Uncommon 12.7%gray 7.8%Common 7.5%grey 21.0%best hit —