The Genesis Collection
A case on csgo.net (Collection), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is csgo.net's own item price.
Price
$1.39
Advertised RTP
73.72%
EV $1.02 from 9 items
Observed RTP, 30d
82.10%
149 openings, odds method
Variance
0.9×
of price², per opening
Tail share
34.5%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
93.5%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values9 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 149 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AK-47 | The Oligarch (Field-Tested)weapon · red | 1 in 10,264 | $36.29 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| M4A4 | Full Throttle (Field-Tested)weapon · red | 1 in 8,206 | $33.55 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| AWP | Ice Coaled (Field-Tested)weapon · pink | 1 in 70 | $6.49 | 9.0% | 5 | 2.1 | 2.36× |
| MP7 | Smoking Kills (Field-Tested)weapon · uncommon | 1 in 44 | $5.46 | 12.1% | 3 | 3.4 | 0.89× |
| Glock-18 | Mirror Mosaic (Field-Tested)weapon · pink | 1 in 36 | $5.05 | 13.7% | 2 | 4.1 | 0.48× |
| M4A1-S | Liquidation (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted | 28.0% | $1.20 | 32.8% | 34 | 41.7 | 0.82× |
| MAC-10 | Cat Fight (Well-Worn)weapon · violet | 23.1% | $0.54 | 12.2% | 11 | 34.4 | 0.32× |
| Dual Berettas | Angel Eyes (Field-Tested)weapon · violet | 21.5% | $0.48 | 10.1% | 36 | 32.0 | 1.13× |
| Nova | Ocular (Well-Worn)weapon · common | 21.0% | $0.47 | 9.5% | 2 | 31.2 | 0.06× |
Values are csgo.net's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgo-net:pf_case_ranges, 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 73.72%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC | $1.39 | 73.72% | 9 |
| 11 Nov, 02:44 UTC | $1.39 | 73.60% | 9 |
| 10 Nov, 20:44 UTC | $1.39 | 73.45% | 9 |
| 10 Nov, 14:44 UTC | $1.39 | 73.78% | 10 |
| 10 Nov, 08:34 UTC | $1.39 | 74.20% | 10 |
| 10 Nov, 02:24 UTC | $1.39 | 74.09% | 10 |
| 9 Nov, 20:24 UTC | $1.39 | 74.06% | 10 |
| 9 Nov, 14:24 UTC | $1.39 | 74.04% | 10 |
| 9 Nov, 08:24 UTC | $1.39 | 74.25% | 10 |
| 9 Nov, 02:14 UTC | $1.39 | 74.76% | 10 |
| 9 Nov, 01:55 UTC | $1.39 | 74.72% | 10 |
| 9 Nov, 00:05 UTC | $1.39 | 74.69% | 10 |
| 8 Nov, 18:22 UTC | $1.39 | 74.68% | 10 |
| 8 Nov, 12:22 UTC | $1.39 | 74.65% | 10 |
| 8 Nov, 06:22 UTC | $1.39 | 74.74% | 10 |
| 8 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $1.39 | 74.80% | 10 |
| 7 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $1.39 | 74.79% | 10 |
| 7 Nov, 12:02 UTC | $1.39 | 74.81% | 10 |
| 7 Nov, 06:02 UTC | $1.39 | 74.57% | 10 |
| 7 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $1.39 | 74.56% | 10 |
| 6 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $1.39 | 74.56% | 10 |
| 6 Nov, 11:41 UTC | $1.39 | 74.67% | 10 |
| 6 Nov, 05:21 UTC | $1.39 | 75.03% | 10 |
| 5 Nov, 22:51 UTC | $1.39 | 74.97% | 10 |
| 5 Nov, 16:41 UTC | $1.39 | 74.95% | 10 |
| 5 Nov, 10:41 UTC | $1.39 | 74.63% | 10 |
| 5 Nov, 04:41 UTC | $1.39 | 74.69% | 10 |
| 4 Nov, 22:41 UTC | $1.39 | 74.69% | 10 |
| 4 Nov, 16:31 UTC | $1.39 | 74.59% | 10 |
| 4 Nov, 14:19 UTC | $1.39 | 74.65% | 10 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedred 0.0%pink 4.2%uncommon 2.3%restricted 28.0%violet 44.6%common 21.0%best hit —