The Graphic Design
A case on csgo.net (Collection), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is csgo.net's own item price.
Price
$2.69
Advertised RTP
76.56%
EV $2.06 from 8 items
Observed RTP, 30d
125.68%
22 openings, odds method
Variance
0.4×
of price², per opening
Tail share
52.7%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
85.1%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 22 openings and 11.1 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 22 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWP | CMYK (Field-Tested)weapon · red | 1 in 9,530 | $111 | 0.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| Desert Eagle | Starcade (Field-Tested)weapon · rare | 1 in 2,854 | $29.95 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| AUG | Lil' Pig (Field-Tested)weapon · uncommon | 1 in 1,225 | $21.05 | 0.8% | 1 | 0.0 | — |
| M4A4 | Polysoup (Field-Tested)weapon · Mythical | 1 in 72 | $7.68 | 5.2% | 1 | 0.3 | — |
| P90 | Attack Vector (Field-Tested)weapon · uncommon | 1 in 22 | $5.00 | 10.9% | 1 | 1.0 | — |
| CZ75-Auto | Slalom (Field-Tested)weapon · uncommon | 1 in 11 | $3.83 | 16.5% | 6 | 1.9 | 3.08× |
| AK-47 | Crossfade (Field-Tested)weapon · blue | 37.8% | $1.78 | 32.7% | 4 | 8.3 | 0.48× |
| SG 553 | Berry Gel Coat (Minimal Wear)weapon · Rare | 47.3% | $1.43 | 32.9% | 0 | 10.4 | 0.00× |
Values are csgo.net's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgo-net:pf_case_ranges, 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 76.56%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC | $2.69 | 76.56% | 8 |
| 11 Nov, 02:44 UTC | $2.69 | 76.34% | 9 |
| 10 Nov, 20:44 UTC | $2.69 | 76.29% | 13 |
| 10 Nov, 14:44 UTC | $2.69 | 76.61% | 9 |
| 10 Nov, 08:34 UTC | $2.69 | 76.97% | 8 |
| 10 Nov, 02:24 UTC | $2.69 | 76.95% | 9 |
| 9 Nov, 20:24 UTC | $2.69 | 76.98% | 8 |
| 9 Nov, 14:24 UTC | $2.69 | 77.08% | 9 |
| 9 Nov, 08:24 UTC | $2.69 | 77.06% | 8 |
| 9 Nov, 02:14 UTC | $2.69 | 77.59% | 8 |
| 9 Nov, 01:55 UTC | $2.69 | 77.52% | 8 |
| 9 Nov, 00:05 UTC | $2.69 | 77.43% | 8 |
| 8 Nov, 18:22 UTC | $2.69 | 77.45% | 8 |
| 8 Nov, 12:22 UTC | $2.69 | 77.45% | 8 |
| 8 Nov, 06:22 UTC | $2.69 | 77.57% | 8 |
| 8 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $2.69 | 77.49% | 8 |
| 7 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $2.69 | 77.57% | 8 |
| 7 Nov, 12:02 UTC | $2.69 | 77.52% | 8 |
| 7 Nov, 06:02 UTC | $2.69 | 77.41% | 8 |
| 7 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $2.69 | 77.51% | 8 |
| 6 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $2.69 | 77.38% | 8 |
| 6 Nov, 11:41 UTC | $2.69 | 77.60% | 8 |
| 6 Nov, 05:21 UTC | $2.69 | 78.05% | 8 |
| 5 Nov, 22:51 UTC | $2.69 | 78.01% | 7 |
| 5 Nov, 16:41 UTC | $2.69 | 77.88% | 7 |
| 5 Nov, 10:41 UTC | $2.69 | 77.45% | 8 |
| 5 Nov, 04:41 UTC | $2.69 | 77.51% | 8 |
| 4 Nov, 22:41 UTC | $2.69 | 77.56% | 8 |
| 4 Nov, 16:31 UTC | $2.69 | 77.52% | 8 |
| 4 Nov, 14:19 UTC | $2.69 | 77.54% | 8 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedred 0.0%rare 0.0%uncommon 13.4%Mythical 1.4%blue 37.8%Rare 47.3%best hit —