TheGreenLegendTV

A case on csgo.net (Blogger), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is csgo.net's own item price.

Price

$4.49

Advertised RTP

75.98%

EV $3.41 from 39 items

Observed RTP, 30d

73.00%

906 openings, odds method

Variance

0.6×

of price², per opening

Tail share

31.2%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

91.1%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

64 openings · below min

7 days

73.09%±5.81756 openings

30 days

73.00%±5.26906 openings

since tracking started

73.00%±5.26906 openings

38.5%59.0%79.5%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	64	58.50%±19.2	—	odds
7d	756	73.09%±5.81	−1.2σ	odds
30d	906	73.00%±5.26	−1.3σ	odds
All	906	73.00%±5.26	−1.3σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values39 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 906 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
Five-SeveN \| Hyper Beast (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 155,791	$241	0.0%	0	0.0	—
★ Bowie Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New)knife · sunny	1 in 110,024	$170	0.0%	0	0.0	—
★ Gut Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New)knife · Immortal	1 in 89,152	$147	0.0%	0	0.0	—
★ Specialist Gloves \| Forest DDPAT (Well-Worn)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 70,970	$130	0.1%	0	0.0	—
P250 \| See Ya Later (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 37,285	$96.97	0.1%	0	0.0	—
Glock-18 \| Wasteland Rebel (Field-Tested)weapon · red	1 in 35,839	$95.42	0.1%	0	0.0	—
AWP \| Asiimov (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 34,547	$94.01	0.1%	0	0.0	—
AK-47 \| Wasteland Rebel (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 20,654	$77.05	0.1%	0	0.0	—
AUG \| Chameleon (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 20,538	$76.88	0.1%	0	0.0	—
Glock-18 \| Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear)weapon · Covert	1 in 16,381	$70.73	0.1%	0	0.1	—
★ Broken Fang Gloves \| Jade (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 14,084	$66.97	0.1%	0	0.1	—
M4A1-S \| Player Two (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 6,851	$51.91	0.2%	0	0.1	—
AWP \| Containment Breach (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 6,637	$51.34	0.2%	0	0.1	—
★ Bowie Knife \| Boreal Forest (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 5,504	$48.11	0.3%	0	0.2	—
AWP \| Hyper Beast (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 4,414	$44.58	0.3%	1	0.2	—
★ Shadow Daggers \| Forest DDPAT (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 4,298	$44.17	0.3%	0	0.2	—
Desert Eagle \| Printstream (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 3,022	$39.13	0.4%	0	0.3	—
FAMAS \| Waters of Nephthys (Field-Tested)weapon · pink	1 in 2,737	$37.82	0.4%	0	0.3	—
AWP \| Redline (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 2,525	$36.79	0.4%	0	0.4	—
AK-47 \| Head Shot (Field-Tested)weapon · Ancient	1 in 1,411	$30.12	0.6%	1	0.6	—
★ Driver Gloves \| Racing Green (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 1,083	$27.49	0.7%	1	0.8	—
Desert Eagle \| Conspiracy (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 421	$19.76	1.4%	0	2.2	0.00×
AWP \| Corticera (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 347	$18.46	1.6%	5	2.6	1.92×
AK-47 \| Green Laminate (Minimal Wear)weapon · blue	1 in 233	$15.98	2.0%	2	3.9	0.51×
P2000 \| Corticera (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 223	$15.74	2.1%	2	4.1	0.49×
AUG \| Fleet Flock (Field-Tested)weapon · #d32ee6	1 in 115	$12.26	3.1%	7	7.9	0.88×
AUG \| Carved Jade (Minimal Wear)weapon · Rare	1 in 75	$10.35	4.1%	11	12.1	0.91×
AUG \| Momentum (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 20	$5.48	7.9%	43	44.4	0.97×
AK-47 \| Ice Coaled (Field-Tested)weapon · Legendary	1 in 14	$4.15	8.5%	75	63.2	1.19×
AK-47 \| Slate (Field-Tested)weapon · Mythical	1 in 13	$3.85	8.4%	76	67.7	1.12×
AWP \| Atheris (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 13	$3.63	8.3%	78	71.0	1.10×
SG 553 \| Integrale (Well-Worn)weapon · pink	1 in 12	$3.37	8.1%	80	74.5	1.07×
AWP \| Duality (Field-Tested)weapon · pink	1 in 11	$3.00	7.7%	92	78.8	1.17×
MAC-10 \| Malachite (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 11	$2.97	7.6%	2	79.1	0.03×
Dual Berettas \| Urban Shock (Field-Tested)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 11	$2.50	6.6%	52	81.9	0.63×
AWP \| PAW (Field-Tested)weapon · Mythical	1 in 11	$1.95	5.0%	85	79.7	1.07×
AK-47 \| Crossfade (Field-Tested)weapon · blue	1 in 12	$1.77	4.4%	38	77.1	0.49×
Glock-18 \| Nuclear Garden (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 12	$1.71	4.2%	98	76.0	1.29×
CZ75-Auto \| Red Astor (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 12	$1.71	4.2%	22	76.1	0.29×

Values are csgo.net's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgo-net:pf_case_ranges, 11 Nov, 14:55 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

AWP | PAW (Field-Tested)weapon · Mythicalnuts <6atya>$4.49$2.010.45x2m

AWP | Duality (Field-Tested)weapon · pink♠mytra♠$4.49$2.900.65x12m

AWP | Atheris (Field-Tested)weapon · restrictedgggdanli9$4.49$3.670.82x12m

CZ75-Auto | Red Astor (Minimal Wear)weapon · restrictedTanZero$4.49$1.710.38x19m

Glock-18 | Nuclear Garden (Field-Tested)weapon · restrictedNURASSYL$4.49$1.740.39x27m

AWP | PAW (Field-Tested)weapon · MythicalNURASSYL$4.49$1.980.44x27m

Glock-18 | Nuclear Garden (Field-Tested)weapon · restrictedNURASSYL$4.49$1.740.39x27m

AWP | Duality (Field-Tested)weapon · pink嫉妒Moutty$4.49$2.900.65x44m

MAC-10 | Malachite (Minimal Wear)weapon · restrictedMORIARTI$4.49$1.820.41x1h

SG 553 | Integrale (Well-Worn)weapon · pinkMORIARTI$4.49$3.360.75x1h

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 75.98%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
11 Nov, 14:55 UTC	$4.49	75.98%	39
11 Nov, 08:54 UTC	$4.49	75.78%	39
11 Nov, 02:44 UTC	$4.49	75.61%	39
10 Nov, 20:44 UTC	$4.49	75.60%	39
10 Nov, 14:44 UTC	$4.49	75.91%	39
10 Nov, 08:34 UTC	$4.49	76.25%	39
10 Nov, 02:24 UTC	$4.49	76.26%	39
9 Nov, 20:24 UTC	$4.49	76.24%	39
9 Nov, 14:24 UTC	$4.49	76.29%	39
9 Nov, 08:24 UTC	$4.49	76.35%	38
9 Nov, 02:14 UTC	$4.49	76.77%	38
9 Nov, 01:55 UTC	$4.49	76.77%	38
9 Nov, 00:05 UTC	$4.49	76.73%	38
8 Nov, 18:22 UTC	$4.49	76.73%	38
8 Nov, 12:22 UTC	$4.49	76.76%	38
8 Nov, 06:22 UTC	$4.49	76.77%	38
8 Nov, 00:02 UTC	$4.49	76.80%	38
7 Nov, 18:02 UTC	$4.49	76.73%	38
7 Nov, 12:02 UTC	$4.49	76.77%	38
7 Nov, 06:02 UTC	$4.49	76.81%	38
7 Nov, 00:02 UTC	$4.49	76.77%	38
6 Nov, 18:02 UTC	$4.49	76.68%	38
6 Nov, 11:41 UTC	$4.49	76.82%	38
6 Nov, 05:21 UTC	$4.49	77.21%	37
5 Nov, 22:51 UTC	$4.49	77.20%	37
5 Nov, 16:41 UTC	$4.49	77.10%	38
5 Nov, 10:41 UTC	$4.49	76.79%	38
5 Nov, 04:41 UTC	$4.49	76.89%	38
4 Nov, 22:41 UTC	$4.49	76.86%	38
4 Nov, 16:31 UTC	$4.49	76.89%	37

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 0.1%sunny 0.0%Immortal 0.0%extraordinary 0.1%red 0.0%Covert 0.0%pink 17.0%classified 5.9%Ancient 0.1%blue 8.9%#d32ee6 0.9%Rare 1.3%Legendary 7.0%Mythical 16.3%restricted 33.4%#8847ff 9.0%best hit —