Havoc

A case on csgo.net (Collection), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is csgo.net's own item price.

Price

$2.19

Advertised RTP

73.85%

EV $1.62 from 19 items

Observed RTP, 30d

899.54%

1 openings, odds method

Variance

1.1×

of price², per opening

Tail share

25.5%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

63.2%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

7 days

1 openings · below min

30 days

1 openings · below min

since tracking started

1 openings · below min

74.5%584.7%1095.0%

Small sample. 1 openings and 0.3 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	0	—	—	—
7d	1	899.54%±194.9	—	odds
30d	1	899.54%±194.9	—	odds
All	1	899.54%±194.9	—	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values19 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
AK-47 \| X-Ray (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 198,275	$540	0.2%	0	0.0	—
MAC-10 \| Hot Snakes (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 179,415	$229	0.1%	0	0.0	—
AWP \| Silk Tiger (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 150,402	$161	0.1%	0	0.0	—
Glock-18 \| Franklin (Field-Tested)weapon · Mythical	1 in 44,884	$73.47	0.1%	0	0.0	—
SG 553 \| Hypnotic (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 30,581	$62.77	0.1%	0	0.0	—
Galil AR \| Phoenix Blacklight (Field-Tested)weapon · violet	1 in 28,930	$61.41	0.1%	0	0.0	—
Desert Eagle \| Night Heist (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec	1 in 1,090	$19.43	1.1%	1	0.0	—
Negev \| Phoenix Stencil (Minimal Wear)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 889	$18.12	1.3%	0	0.0	—
P250 \| Bengal Tiger (Minimal Wear)weapon · Rare	1 in 475	$14.62	1.9%	0	0.0	—
P90 \| Tiger Pit (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 364	$13.34	2.3%	0	0.0	—
Nova \| Rust Coat (Field-Tested)weapon · Industrial Grade	1 in 14	$3.75	16.7%	0	0.1	—
R8 Revolver \| Phoenix Marker (Field-Tested)weapon · 2	1 in 12	$3.45	18.0%	0	0.1	—
UMP-45 \| Houndstooth (Field-Tested)weapon · 2	1 in 11	$3.29	18.7%	0	0.1	—
MP7 \| Vault Heist (Field-Tested)weapon · Uncommon	11.2%	$2.91	20.2%	0	0.1	—
Dual Berettas \| Heist (Minimal Wear)weapon · Consumer Grade	16.1%	$0.65	6.5%	0	0.2	—
Tec-9 \| Phoenix Chalk (Field-Tested)weapon · Consumer Grade	12.2%	$0.46	3.5%	0	0.1	—
M249 \| Predator (Field-Tested)weapon · Consumer Grade	11.8%	$0.44	3.2%	0	0.1	—
PP-Bizon \| Death Rattle (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer	11.6%	$0.43	3.1%	0	0.1	—
Sawed-Off \| Clay Ambush (Field-Tested)weapon · Consumer Grade	11.5%	$0.42	3.0%	0	0.1	—

Values are csgo.net's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgo-net:pf_case_ranges, 11 Nov, 14:55 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

Desert Eagle | Night Heist (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil specBOOM GUY$2.19$19.709.00x5d

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 73.85%

No data in this window

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
11 Nov, 14:55 UTC	$2.19	73.85%	19
11 Nov, 08:54 UTC	$2.19	73.68%	19
11 Nov, 02:44 UTC	$2.19	73.51%	19
10 Nov, 20:44 UTC	$2.19	73.52%	19
10 Nov, 14:44 UTC	$2.19	73.80%	19
10 Nov, 08:34 UTC	$2.19	74.12%	19
10 Nov, 02:24 UTC	$2.19	74.16%	19
9 Nov, 20:24 UTC	$2.19	74.12%	19
9 Nov, 14:24 UTC	$2.19	74.17%	19
9 Nov, 08:24 UTC	$2.19	74.26%	19
9 Nov, 02:14 UTC	$2.19	74.68%	19
9 Nov, 01:55 UTC	$2.19	74.62%	19
9 Nov, 00:05 UTC	$2.19	74.58%	19
8 Nov, 18:22 UTC	$2.19	74.63%	19
8 Nov, 12:22 UTC	$2.19	74.65%	19
8 Nov, 06:22 UTC	$2.19	74.65%	19
8 Nov, 00:02 UTC	$2.19	74.65%	19
7 Nov, 18:02 UTC	$2.19	74.64%	19
7 Nov, 12:02 UTC	$2.19	74.63%	19
7 Nov, 06:02 UTC	$2.19	74.65%	19
7 Nov, 00:02 UTC	$2.19	74.61%	19
6 Nov, 18:02 UTC	$2.19	74.57%	19
6 Nov, 11:41 UTC	$2.19	74.73%	19
6 Nov, 05:21 UTC	$2.19	75.00%	19
5 Nov, 22:51 UTC	$2.19	75.01%	19
5 Nov, 16:41 UTC	$2.19	74.95%	19
5 Nov, 10:41 UTC	$2.19	74.64%	19
5 Nov, 04:41 UTC	$2.19	74.70%	19
4 Nov, 22:41 UTC	$2.19	74.72%	19
4 Nov, 16:31 UTC	$2.19	74.72%	19

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed2 17.6%covert 0.0%classified 0.0%Mythical 0.0%restricted 0.0%violet 0.0%mil spec 0.1%#4b69ff 0.4%Rare 0.2%Industrial Grade 7.2%Uncommon 11.2%Consumer Grade 51.6%consumer 11.6%best hit —