Norse
A case on csgo.net (Collection), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is csgo.net's own item price.
Price
$80.99
Advertised RTP
76.63%
EV $62.06 from 10 items
Observed RTP, 30d
118.99%
113 openings, odds method
Variance
0.4×
of price², per opening
Tail share
30.6%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
69.4%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Outside band, 30 days. Advertised 77.61% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (107.85% – 130.13%, 113 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values10 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 113 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWP | Gungnir (Field-Tested)weapon · covert | 1 in 172,152 | $7,581 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| Desert Eagle | Emerald Jörmungandr (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted | 1 in 101 | $315 | 5.0% | 5 | 1.1 | 4.46× |
| P90 | Astral Jörmungandr (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted | 1 in 79 | $288 | 5.9% | 1 | 1.4 | 0.70× |
| SCAR-20 | Brass (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mil Spec Grade | 12.4% | $101 | 20.2% | 25 | 14.0 | 1.78× |
| CZ75-Auto | Emerald Quartz (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec | 15.9% | $82.05 | 21.1% | 20 | 18.0 | 1.11× |
| MAC-10 | Copper Borre (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec | 18.8% | $66.86 | 20.2% | 36 | 21.2 | 1.70× |
| XM1014 | Frost Borre (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec | 19.0% | $65.75 | 20.1% | 20 | 21.4 | 0.93× |
| M4A1-S | Moss Quartz (Field-Tested)weapon · industrial | 11.9% | $16.60 | 3.2% | 0 | 13.5 | 0.00× |
| MAG-7 | Chainmail (Minimal Wear)weapon · industrial | 1 in 10 | $13.49 | 2.2% | 0 | 11.2 | 0.00× |
| USP-S | Pathfinder (Minimal Wear)weapon · industrial | 1 in 10 | $13.32 | 2.1% | 0 | 11.1 | 0.00× |
Values are csgo.net's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgo-net:pf_case_ranges, 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 76.63%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC | $80.99 | 76.63% | 10 |
| 11 Nov, 02:44 UTC | $80.99 | 76.46% | 9 |
| 10 Nov, 20:44 UTC | $80.99 | 76.43% | 10 |
| 10 Nov, 14:44 UTC | $80.99 | 76.73% | 10 |
| 10 Nov, 08:34 UTC | $80.99 | 77.07% | 10 |
| 10 Nov, 02:24 UTC | $80.99 | 77.08% | 10 |
| 9 Nov, 20:24 UTC | $80.99 | 77.06% | 10 |
| 9 Nov, 14:24 UTC | $80.99 | 77.12% | 9 |
| 9 Nov, 08:24 UTC | $80.99 | 77.19% | 9 |
| 9 Nov, 02:14 UTC | $80.99 | 77.62% | 9 |
| 9 Nov, 01:55 UTC | $80.99 | 77.59% | 9 |
| 9 Nov, 00:05 UTC | $80.99 | 77.59% | 9 |
| 8 Nov, 18:22 UTC | $80.99 | 77.61% | 8 |
| 8 Nov, 12:22 UTC | $80.99 | 77.61% | 9 |
| 8 Nov, 06:22 UTC | $80.99 | 77.61% | 9 |
| 8 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $80.99 | 77.62% | 9 |
| 7 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $80.99 | 77.59% | 9 |
| 7 Nov, 12:02 UTC | $80.99 | 77.61% | 9 |
| 7 Nov, 06:02 UTC | $80.99 | 77.61% | 9 |
| 7 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $80.99 | 77.61% | 9 |
| 6 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $80.99 | 77.55% | 9 |
| 6 Nov, 11:41 UTC | $80.99 | 77.67% | 9 |
| 6 Nov, 05:21 UTC | $80.99 | 78.02% | 9 |
| 5 Nov, 22:51 UTC | $80.99 | 78.03% | 9 |
| 5 Nov, 16:41 UTC | $80.99 | 77.94% | 9 |
| 5 Nov, 10:41 UTC | $80.99 | 77.62% | 9 |
| 5 Nov, 04:41 UTC | $80.99 | 77.71% | 9 |
| 4 Nov, 22:41 UTC | $80.99 | 77.71% | 9 |
| 4 Nov, 16:31 UTC | $80.99 | 77.72% | 9 |
| 4 Nov, 14:19 UTC | $80.99 | 77.69% | 9 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 0.0%restricted 2.3%Mil Spec Grade 12.4%mil spec 53.7%industrial 31.7%best hit —