Вещий ворон
A case on csgo.net (Battle), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is csgo.net's own item price.
Price
$0.40
Advertised RTP
77.33%
EV $0.31 from 30 items
Observed RTP, 30d
97.46%
25.2K openings, odds method
Variance
0.6×
of price², per opening
Tail share
36.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
85.4%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Outside band, 30 days. Advertised 78.08% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (96.48% – 98.43%, 25,171 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values30 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 25.2K openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are csgo.net's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgo-net:pf_case_ranges, 11 Nov, 14:55 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 77.33%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Nov, 14:55 UTC | $0.40 | 77.33% | 30 |
| 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC | $0.40 | 77.03% | 30 |
| 11 Nov, 02:44 UTC | $0.40 | 76.92% | 30 |
| 10 Nov, 20:44 UTC | $0.40 | 76.94% | 30 |
| 10 Nov, 14:44 UTC | $0.40 | 77.24% | 30 |
| 10 Nov, 08:34 UTC | $0.40 | 77.51% | 30 |
| 10 Nov, 02:24 UTC | $0.40 | 77.60% | 30 |
| 9 Nov, 20:24 UTC | $0.40 | 77.55% | 30 |
| 9 Nov, 14:24 UTC | $0.40 | 77.62% | 30 |
| 9 Nov, 08:24 UTC | $0.40 | 77.61% | 30 |
| 9 Nov, 02:14 UTC | $0.40 | 78.08% | 30 |
| 9 Nov, 01:55 UTC | $0.40 | 77.99% | 30 |
| 9 Nov, 00:05 UTC | $0.40 | 78.02% | 30 |
| 8 Nov, 18:22 UTC | $0.40 | 78.08% | 29 |
| 8 Nov, 12:22 UTC | $0.40 | 78.06% | 30 |
| 8 Nov, 06:22 UTC | $0.40 | 78.09% | 30 |
| 8 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $0.40 | 78.08% | 30 |
| 7 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $0.40 | 78.01% | 30 |
| 7 Nov, 12:02 UTC | $0.40 | 78.00% | 30 |
| 7 Nov, 06:02 UTC | $0.40 | 78.04% | 30 |
| 7 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $0.40 | 78.12% | 30 |
| 6 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $0.40 | 78.11% | 30 |
| 6 Nov, 11:41 UTC | $0.40 | 78.19% | 30 |
| 6 Nov, 05:21 UTC | $0.40 | 78.52% | 30 |
| 5 Nov, 22:51 UTC | $0.40 | 78.48% | 30 |
| 5 Nov, 16:41 UTC | $0.40 | 78.39% | 30 |
| 5 Nov, 10:41 UTC | $0.40 | 78.21% | 30 |
| 5 Nov, 04:41 UTC | $0.40 | 78.25% | 30 |
| 4 Nov, 22:41 UTC | $0.40 | 78.27% | 30 |
| 4 Nov, 16:31 UTC | $0.40 | 78.25% | 30 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listed2 22.6%classified 0.0%restricted 10.3%violet 8.2%pink 0.0%mil spec 15.4%Mythical 1.4%#4b69ff 11.4%Rare 0.1%Restricted 0.2%uncommon 1.7%#8847ff 6.5%blue 7.5%Mil Spec Grade 14.6%best hit —