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Король тыкв

A case on csgo.net, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is csgo.net's own item price.

Price
$53.99
Advertised RTP
76.63%
EV $41.37 from 28 items
Observed RTP, 30d
78.24%
4,370 openings, odds method
Variance
0.6×
of price², per opening
Tail share
38.8%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
86.2%
of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
24 hours
77.88%±5.07887 openings
7 days
78.44%±2.543,768 openings
30 days
78.24%±2.374,370 openings
since tracking started
78.24%±2.374,370 openings
72.0%77.8%83.5%

Windowsthe test per window

WindowOpeningsObservedDev.Method
24h88777.88%±5.07+0.5σodds
7d3,76878.44%±2.54+0.8σodds
30d4,37078.24%±2.37+0.6σodds
All4,37078.24%±2.37+0.6σodds
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values28 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 4,372 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
ItemOddsValueEV shareObservedExpectedHot / cold
★ Butterfly Knife | Fade (Factory New)knife · covert1 in 9,778$1,8850.5%00.4—
★ Karambit | Fade (Factory New)knife · covert1 in 9,672$1,6500.4%10.5—
★ Specialist Gloves | Crimson Kimono (Battle-Scarred)gloves · extraordinary1 in 9,110$1,1590.3%10.5—
AK-47 | Gold Arabesque (Field-Tested)weapon · covert1 in 9,089$1,1490.3%00.5—
M4A1-S | Imminent Danger (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert1 in 8,733$1,0160.3%00.5—
★ M9 Bayonet | Autotronic (Field-Tested)knife · covert1 in 5,605$5780.2%10.8—
AWP | Fade (Factory New)weapon · covert1 in 5,487$5690.3%10.8—
AK-47 | X-Ray (Field-Tested)weapon · covert1 in 4,784$5180.3%00.9—
★ Talon Knife | Slaughter (Minimal Wear)knife · covert1 in 4,557$5020.3%21.0—
★ Stiletto Knife | Fade (Factory New)knife · covert1 in 2,266$3530.4%31.91.55×
★ Sport Gloves | Slingshot (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary1 in 1,208$2730.5%53.61.38×
M4A1-S | Fade (Minimal Wear)weapon · epic1 in 553$2040.9%57.90.63×
AWP | Oni Taiji (Field-Tested)weapon · covert1 in 517$1990.9%198.52.25×
AK-47 | Fuel Injector (Field-Tested)weapon · covert1 in 128$1202.3%2934.20.85×
M4A4 | Asiimov (Well-Worn)weapon · covert1 in 101$1102.6%1243.10.28×
M4A1-S | Chantico's Fire (Field-Tested)weapon · covert1 in 97$1082.7%3045.00.67×
AWP | Asiimov (Field-Tested)weapon · covert1 in 67$93.883.4%6265.00.95×
R8 Revolver | Fade (Field-Tested)weapon · covert1 in 42$77.974.5%91103.30.88×
Sawed-Off | The Kraken (Field-Tested)weapon · covert1 in 42$77.594.5%47104.60.45×
USP-S | Kill Confirmed (Field-Tested)weapon · covert1 in 24$60.936.1%174181.30.96×
Glock-18 | Bullet Queen (Field-Tested)weapon · covert1 in 18$53.047.0%259240.21.08×
Desert Eagle | Code Red (Field-Tested)weapon · covert1 in 11$38.248.7%368412.10.89×
AK-47 | The Oligarch (Field-Tested)weapon · red10.1%$36.298.8%430441.10.97×
AWP | LongDog (Well-Worn)weapon · red10.5%$35.048.9%470460.21.02×
AK-47 | Legion of Anubis (Minimal Wear)weapon · Ancient11.5%$32.439.0%489501.20.98×
MP7 | Bloodsport (Field-Tested)weapon · covert12.2%$30.459.0%442532.30.83×
FAMAS | Commemoration (Field-Tested)weapon · covert12.5%$29.568.9%481546.30.88×
USP-S | Caiman (Field-Tested)weapon · classified14.5%$23.008.1%654634.51.03×
Values are csgo.net's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgo-net:pf_case_ranges, 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

★ Karambit | Fade (Factory New)knife · covertinho$53.99$1,66830.90x
★ Specialist Gloves | Crimson Kimono (Battle-Scarred)gloves · extraordinary𝓚𝓪𝓙𝓵𝓾𝓫𝓹𝓾$53.99$1,14921.28x
★ M9 Bayonet | Autotronic (Field-Tested)knife · covertrina$53.99$58310.80x
AWP | Fade (Factory New)weapon · covert777$53.99$57510.65x
★ Talon Knife | Slaughter (Minimal Wear)knife · covertVEM PRA twitch.tv/jpndub$53.99$5059.35x

Latest dropsnewest first

All Latest drops →
AK-47 | Legion of Anubis (Minimal Wear)weapon · AncientRK$53.99$31.930.59x
AK-47 | Legion of Anubis (Minimal Wear)weapon · Ancientdreeeeww$53.99$31.910.59x
R8 Revolver | Fade (Field-Tested)weapon · covertAsgardec$53.99$77.251.43x
AK-47 | Legion of Anubis (Minimal Wear)weapon · Ancientdreeeeww$53.99$31.910.59x
MP7 | Bloodsport (Field-Tested)weapon · covertdow$53.99$30.440.56x
MP7 | Bloodsport (Field-Tested)weapon · covertKeep™$53.99$30.440.56x
AWP | Asiimov (Field-Tested)weapon · covertKeep™$53.99$79.201.47x
Desert Eagle | Code Red (Field-Tested)weapon · covertKeep™$53.99$39.860.74x
AK-47 | The Oligarch (Field-Tested)weapon · redlzoidze$53.99$36.330.67x
FAMAS | Commemoration (Field-Tested)weapon · covertKeep™$53.99$29.570.55x

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 76.63%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

CapturedPriceAdvertisedItems
11 Nov, 08:54 UTC$53.9976.63%28
11 Nov, 02:44 UTC$53.9976.45%28
10 Nov, 20:44 UTC$53.9976.43%28
10 Nov, 14:44 UTC$53.9976.73%28
10 Nov, 08:34 UTC$53.9977.06%28
10 Nov, 02:24 UTC$53.9977.07%28
9 Nov, 20:24 UTC$53.9977.05%28
9 Nov, 14:24 UTC$53.9977.12%28
9 Nov, 08:24 UTC$53.9977.18%28
9 Nov, 02:14 UTC$53.9977.62%28
9 Nov, 01:55 UTC$53.9977.59%28
9 Nov, 00:05 UTC$53.9977.58%28
8 Nov, 18:22 UTC$53.9977.61%28
8 Nov, 12:22 UTC$53.9977.61%28
8 Nov, 06:22 UTC$53.9977.61%28
8 Nov, 00:02 UTC$53.9977.62%28
7 Nov, 18:02 UTC$53.9977.59%28
7 Nov, 12:02 UTC$53.9977.60%28
7 Nov, 06:02 UTC$53.9977.61%28
7 Nov, 00:02 UTC$53.9977.61%28
6 Nov, 18:02 UTC$53.9977.54%28
6 Nov, 11:41 UTC$53.9977.67%28
6 Nov, 05:21 UTC$53.9978.02%28
5 Nov, 22:51 UTC$53.9978.03%28
5 Nov, 16:41 UTC$53.9977.94%28
5 Nov, 10:41 UTC$53.9977.62%28
5 Nov, 04:41 UTC$53.9977.71%28
4 Nov, 22:41 UTC$53.9977.71%28
4 Nov, 16:31 UTC$53.9977.72%28
4 Nov, 14:19 UTC$53.9977.68%28
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 53.1%extraordinary 0.1%epic 0.2%red 20.6%Ancient 11.5%classified 14.5%best hit $1,668 (30.90x)