The Radiant Collection

A case on csgo.net (Collection), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is csgo.net's own item price.

Price

$0.67

Advertised RTP

78.06%

EV $0.52 from 14 items

Observed RTP, 30d

116.40%

215 openings, odds method

Variance

0.7×

of price², per opening

Tail share

39.4%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

60.6%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

3 openings · below min

7 days

98 openings · below min

30 days

116.40%±11.02215 openings

since tracking started

116.40%±11.02215 openings

-0.5%77.3%155.0%

Outside band, 30 days. Advertised 79.05% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (105.39% – 127.42%, 215 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	3	61.04%±93.4	—	odds
7d	98	130.32%±16.3	—	odds
30d	215	116.40%±11.0	+6.6σ	odds
All	215	116.40%±11.0	+6.6σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values14 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 215 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
AK-47 \| Nouveau Rouge (Field-Tested)weapon · pink	1 in 414	$7.90	3.7%	2	0.5	—
M4A1-S \| Glitched Paint (Field-Tested)weapon · violet	19.1%	$1.04	37.9%	38	41.0	0.93×
USP-S \| Bleeding Edge (Field-Tested)weapon · Mythical	20.1%	$0.96	36.8%	44	43.1	1.02×
AWP \| Arsenic Spill (Minimal Wear)weapon · blue	16.2%	$0.34	10.7%	22	34.9	0.63×
Glock-18 \| Coral Bloom (Field-Tested)weapon · common	1 in 11	$0.18	3.2%	12	20.3	0.59×
P250 \| Red Tide (Field-Tested)weapon · blue	1 in 13	$0.14	2.0%	7	15.9	0.44×
MP9 \| Shredded (Field-Tested)weapon · blue	1 in 13	$0.14	2.0%	8	16.0	0.50×
M4A1-S \| Rose Hex (Field-Tested)weapon · Rare	1 in 14	$0.13	1.8%	9	15.5	0.58×
SSG 08 \| Blush Pour (Field-Tested)weapon · blue	1 in 15	$0.13	1.6%	5	14.7	0.34×
Tec-9 \| Citric Acid (Minimal Wear)weapon · Uncommon	1 in 54	$0.03	0.1%	0	4.0	0.00×
Galil AR \| O-Ranger (Field-Tested)weapon · light blue	1 in 76	$0.02	0.1%	0	2.8	0.00×
P250 \| Sedimentary (Field-Tested)weapon · #5e98d9	1 in 84	$0.02	0.1%	0	2.6	0.00×
M4A4 \| Steel Work (Field-Tested)weapon · Uncommon	1 in 109	$0.02	0.0%	0	2.0	0.00×
FAMAS \| Grey Ghost (Field-Tested)weapon · Uncommon	1 in 125	$0.01	0.0%	0	1.7	0.00×

Values are csgo.net's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgo-net:pf_case_ranges, 11 Nov, 14:55 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

SSG 08 | Blush Pour (Field-Tested)weapon · blueЧИЧА Сыроежкин$0.67$0.130.19x3h

USP-S | Bleeding Edge (Field-Tested)weapon · MythicalTrackL1ght$0.67$0.971.45x5h

P250 | Red Tide (Field-Tested)weapon · blue☯RV666☯$0.67$0.130.20x17h

M4A1-S | Glitched Paint (Field-Tested)weapon · violetUnLuck ♿$0.67$1.041.55x23h

USP-S | Bleeding Edge (Field-Tested)weapon · MythicalUnLuck ♿$0.67$0.981.46x23h

AWP | Arsenic Spill (Field-Tested)weapon · Mil SpecBERO SKINS$0.67$0.280.41x1d

USP-S | Bleeding Edge (Field-Tested)weapon · MythicalIIoe3D_v_IIyKaH$0.67$0.991.48x1d

AWP | Arsenic Spill (Field-Tested)weapon · Mil SpecDеnDич$0.67$0.280.41x1d

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 78.06%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
11 Nov, 14:55 UTC	$0.67	78.06%	14
11 Nov, 08:54 UTC	$0.67	77.99%	14
11 Nov, 02:44 UTC	$0.67	77.65%	14
10 Nov, 20:44 UTC	$0.67	77.64%	14
10 Nov, 14:44 UTC	$0.67	77.65%	14
10 Nov, 08:34 UTC	$0.67	78.17%	14
10 Nov, 02:24 UTC	$0.67	78.14%	14
9 Nov, 20:24 UTC	$0.67	78.22%	14
9 Nov, 14:24 UTC	$0.67	78.35%	14
9 Nov, 08:24 UTC	$0.67	78.44%	14
9 Nov, 02:14 UTC	$0.67	78.66%	14
9 Nov, 01:55 UTC	$0.67	78.79%	14
9 Nov, 00:05 UTC	$0.67	78.62%	14
8 Nov, 18:22 UTC	$0.67	78.78%	14
8 Nov, 12:22 UTC	$0.67	78.68%	14
8 Nov, 06:22 UTC	$0.67	78.61%	14
8 Nov, 00:02 UTC	$0.67	78.87%	14
7 Nov, 18:02 UTC	$0.67	78.64%	14
7 Nov, 12:02 UTC	$0.67	78.60%	14
7 Nov, 06:02 UTC	$0.67	78.84%	14
7 Nov, 00:02 UTC	$0.67	78.81%	14
6 Nov, 18:02 UTC	$0.67	78.73%	14
6 Nov, 11:41 UTC	$0.67	78.68%	14
6 Nov, 05:21 UTC	$0.67	79.29%	14
5 Nov, 22:51 UTC	$0.67	79.23%	14
5 Nov, 16:41 UTC	$0.67	79.07%	14
5 Nov, 10:41 UTC	$0.67	78.71%	14
5 Nov, 04:41 UTC	$0.67	78.91%	14
4 Nov, 22:41 UTC	$0.67	78.69%	14
4 Nov, 16:31 UTC	$0.67	78.87%	14

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedpink 0.2%violet 19.1%Mythical 20.1%blue 37.9%common 9.4%Rare 7.2%Uncommon 3.6%light blue 1.3%#5e98d9 1.2%best hit —