The Spy Tech Collection

A case on csgo.net (Collection), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is csgo.net's own item price.

Price

$2.09

Advertised RTP

73.95%

EV $1.55 from 11 items

Observed RTP, 30d

91.04%

218 openings, odds method

Variance

1.4×

of price², per opening

Tail share

25.6%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

55.5%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

35 openings · below min

7 days

86.31%±19.37140 openings

30 days

91.04%±15.68218 openings

since tracking started

91.04%±15.68218 openings

34.5%75.5%116.5%

Outside band, 30 days. Advertised 74.73% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (75.36% – 106.72%, 218 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	35	75.46%±40.3	—	odds
7d	140	86.31%±19.4	+1.2σ	odds
30d	218	91.04%±15.7	+2.0σ	odds
All	218	91.04%±15.7	+2.0σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values11 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 218 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
Glock-18 \| Ghost Protocol (Field-Tested)weapon · red	1 in 9,782	$159	1.0%	0	0.0	—
AK-47 \| AUTOEXEC (Well-Worn)weapon · red	1 in 8,619	$82.14	0.6%	0	0.0	—
M4A1-S \| Fatal Glitch (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 760	$19.26	1.6%	0	0.3	—
USP-S \| Spiral Glitch (Well-Worn)weapon · pink	1 in 700	$18.69	1.7%	1	0.3	—
AWP \| Black Box (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 13	$4.17	21.2%	7	17.1	0.41×
CZ75-Auto \| Hydraulics (Well-Worn)weapon · #8847ff	17.4%	$2.74	30.9%	26	37.9	0.69×
Nova \| Smart Gun (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	18.9%	$2.59	31.7%	35	41.2	0.85×
AUG \| Signal Scanner (Field-Tested)weapon · Rare	15.6%	$0.35	3.5%	22	34.0	0.65×
M4A4 \| Dark Operative (Field-Tested)weapon · blue	15.0%	$0.33	3.2%	15	32.6	0.46×
MP9 \| Spy Prototype (Field-Tested)weapon · Rare	14.2%	$0.31	2.9%	13	31.0	0.42×
R8 Revolver \| Monarch (Well-Worn)weapon · blue	10.8%	$0.23	1.6%	9	23.5	0.38×

Values are csgo.net's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgo-net:pf_case_ranges, 11 Nov, 14:55 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

M4A4 | Dark Operative (Field-Tested)weapon · blueMashono4ka♿$2.09$0.330.16x1h

CZ75-Auto | Hydraulics (Well-Worn)weapon · #8847ffMashono4ka♿$2.09$2.751.32x2h

AUG | Signal Scanner (Field-Tested)weapon · Rare❤𝓗𝓸𝓵𝓵𝔂❤$2.09$0.350.17x2h

CZ75-Auto | Hydraulics (Well-Worn)weapon · #8847ff❤𝓗𝓸𝓵𝓵𝔂❤$2.09$2.761.32x2h

Nova | Smart Gun (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted❤𝓗𝓸𝓵𝓵𝔂❤$2.09$2.591.24x2h

AWP | Black Box (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted❤𝓗𝓸𝓵𝓵𝔂❤$2.09$4.172.00x2h

Nova | Smart Gun (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted【❖】$2.09$2.581.23x8h

AWP | Black Box (Field-Tested)weapon · restrictedwano$2.09$4.172.00x13h

R8 Revolver | Monarch (Well-Worn)weapon · bluewano$2.09$0.250.12x13h

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 73.95%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
11 Nov, 14:55 UTC	$2.09	73.95%	11
11 Nov, 08:54 UTC	$2.09	73.75%	11
11 Nov, 02:44 UTC	$2.09	73.62%	11
10 Nov, 20:44 UTC	$2.09	73.61%	11
10 Nov, 14:44 UTC	$2.09	73.88%	11
10 Nov, 08:34 UTC	$2.09	74.20%	11
10 Nov, 02:24 UTC	$2.09	74.20%	11
9 Nov, 20:24 UTC	$2.09	74.18%	11
9 Nov, 14:24 UTC	$2.09	74.20%	11
9 Nov, 08:24 UTC	$2.09	74.23%	11
9 Nov, 02:14 UTC	$2.09	74.67%	11
9 Nov, 01:55 UTC	$2.09	74.69%	11
9 Nov, 00:05 UTC	$2.09	74.68%	11
8 Nov, 18:22 UTC	$2.09	74.70%	11
8 Nov, 12:22 UTC	$2.09	74.76%	11
8 Nov, 06:22 UTC	$2.09	74.75%	11
8 Nov, 00:02 UTC	$2.09	74.70%	11
7 Nov, 18:02 UTC	$2.09	74.71%	11
7 Nov, 12:02 UTC	$2.09	74.65%	11
7 Nov, 06:02 UTC	$2.09	74.68%	11
7 Nov, 00:02 UTC	$2.09	74.75%	11
6 Nov, 18:02 UTC	$2.09	74.62%	11
6 Nov, 11:41 UTC	$2.09	74.76%	11
6 Nov, 05:21 UTC	$2.09	75.06%	11
5 Nov, 22:51 UTC	$2.09	75.09%	11
5 Nov, 16:41 UTC	$2.09	75.05%	11
5 Nov, 10:41 UTC	$2.09	74.78%	11
5 Nov, 04:41 UTC	$2.09	74.75%	11
4 Nov, 22:41 UTC	$2.09	74.71%	11
4 Nov, 16:31 UTC	$2.09	74.79%	11

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedred 0.0%classified 0.1%pink 0.1%restricted 26.8%#8847ff 17.4%Rare 29.8%blue 25.7%best hit —