The Train 2025 Collection
A case on csgo.net (Collection), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is csgo.net's own item price.
Price
$1.39
Advertised RTP
73.75%
EV $1.03 from 12 items
Observed RTP, 30d
89.22%
126 openings, odds method
Variance
0.8×
of price², per opening
Tail share
28.8%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
71.2%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values12 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 126 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWP | LongDog (Well-Worn)weapon · red | 1 in 6,356 | $35.04 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| M4A4 | Hellish (Field-Tested)weapon · rare | 1 in 432 | $14.00 | 3.2% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| MP9 | Latte Rush (Well-Worn)weapon · uncommon | 1 in 40 | $5.99 | 14.6% | 4 | 3.2 | 1.27× |
| MAC-10 | Derailment (Field-Tested)weapon · #8847ff | 26.1% | $1.53 | 38.9% | 38 | 32.9 | 1.16× |
| Tec-9 | Whiteout (Well-Worn)weapon · Mythical | 27.8% | $1.26 | 34.1% | 21 | 35.0 | 0.60× |
| XM1014 | Run Run Run (Field-Tested)weapon · blue | 10.9% | $0.26 | 2.7% | 8 | 13.7 | 0.58× |
| Glock-18 | Green Line (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff | 10.3% | $0.24 | 2.4% | 15 | 13.0 | 1.16× |
| UMP-45 | Late Night Transit (Field-Tested)weapon · blue | 1 in 11 | $0.21 | 1.8% | 4 | 11.2 | 0.36× |
| FAMAS | 2A2F (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff | 1 in 13 | $0.18 | 1.4% | 9 | 10.0 | 0.90× |
| Galil AR | Green Apple (Minimal Wear)weapon · #5e98d9 | 1 in 46 | $0.05 | 0.1% | 0 | 2.7 | 0.00× |
| CZ75-Auto | Copper Fiber (Field-Tested)weapon · #5e98d9 | 1 in 50 | $0.04 | 0.1% | 0 | 2.5 | 0.00× |
| Nova | Rain Station (Minimal Wear)weapon · #5e98d9 | 1 in 79 | $0.03 | 0.0% | 0 | 1.6 | 0.00× |
Values are csgo.net's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgo-net:pf_case_ranges, 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 73.75%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC | $1.39 | 73.75% | 12 |
| 11 Nov, 02:44 UTC | $1.39 | 73.64% | 12 |
| 10 Nov, 20:44 UTC | $1.39 | 73.44% | 12 |
| 10 Nov, 14:44 UTC | $1.39 | 73.80% | 12 |
| 10 Nov, 08:34 UTC | $1.39 | 74.20% | 12 |
| 10 Nov, 02:24 UTC | $1.39 | 74.05% | 12 |
| 9 Nov, 20:24 UTC | $1.39 | 74.17% | 12 |
| 9 Nov, 14:24 UTC | $1.39 | 74.10% | 12 |
| 9 Nov, 08:24 UTC | $1.39 | 74.22% | 12 |
| 9 Nov, 02:14 UTC | $1.39 | 74.62% | 12 |
| 9 Nov, 01:55 UTC | $1.39 | 74.63% | 12 |
| 9 Nov, 00:05 UTC | $1.39 | 74.61% | 12 |
| 8 Nov, 18:22 UTC | $1.39 | 74.63% | 12 |
| 8 Nov, 12:22 UTC | $1.39 | 74.57% | 12 |
| 8 Nov, 06:22 UTC | $1.39 | 74.60% | 12 |
| 8 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $1.39 | 74.72% | 12 |
| 7 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $1.39 | 74.66% | 12 |
| 7 Nov, 12:02 UTC | $1.39 | 74.66% | 12 |
| 7 Nov, 06:02 UTC | $1.39 | 74.59% | 12 |
| 7 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $1.39 | 74.67% | 12 |
| 6 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $1.39 | 74.71% | 12 |
| 6 Nov, 11:41 UTC | $1.39 | 74.69% | 12 |
| 6 Nov, 05:21 UTC | $1.39 | 74.87% | 12 |
| 5 Nov, 22:51 UTC | $1.39 | 75.14% | 12 |
| 5 Nov, 16:41 UTC | $1.39 | 75.01% | 12 |
| 5 Nov, 10:41 UTC | $1.39 | 74.51% | 12 |
| 5 Nov, 04:41 UTC | $1.39 | 74.78% | 12 |
| 4 Nov, 22:41 UTC | $1.39 | 74.82% | 12 |
| 4 Nov, 16:31 UTC | $1.39 | 74.73% | 12 |
| 4 Nov, 14:19 UTC | $1.39 | 74.70% | 12 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedred 0.0%rare 0.2%uncommon 2.5%#8847ff 26.1%Mythical 27.8%blue 19.8%#4b69ff 18.2%#5e98d9 5.4%best hit —