tN1R
A case on csgo.net, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is csgo.net's own item price.
Price
$0.67
Advertised RTP
75.56%
EV $0.51 from 29 items
Observed RTP, 30d
84.09%
1,799 openings, odds method
Variance
0.9×
of price², per opening
Tail share
27.9%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
78.3%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Outside band, 30 days. Advertised 76.44% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (79.77% – 88.41%, 1,799 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values29 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,799 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are csgo.net's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgo-net:pf_case_ranges, 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 75.56%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC | $0.67 | 75.56% | 29 |
| 11 Nov, 02:44 UTC | $0.67 | 75.48% | 29 |
| 10 Nov, 20:44 UTC | $0.67 | 75.50% | 29 |
| 10 Nov, 14:44 UTC | $0.67 | 75.78% | 29 |
| 10 Nov, 08:34 UTC | $0.67 | 76.09% | 28 |
| 10 Nov, 02:24 UTC | $0.67 | 76.13% | 28 |
| 9 Nov, 20:24 UTC | $0.67 | 76.15% | 28 |
| 9 Nov, 14:24 UTC | $0.67 | 76.20% | 29 |
| 9 Nov, 08:24 UTC | $0.67 | 76.29% | 29 |
| 9 Nov, 02:14 UTC | $0.67 | 76.60% | 29 |
| 9 Nov, 01:55 UTC | $0.67 | 76.64% | 29 |
| 9 Nov, 00:05 UTC | $0.67 | 76.60% | 29 |
| 8 Nov, 18:22 UTC | $0.67 | 76.61% | 29 |
| 8 Nov, 12:22 UTC | $0.67 | 76.58% | 28 |
| 8 Nov, 06:22 UTC | $0.67 | 76.65% | 28 |
| 8 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $0.67 | 76.58% | 29 |
| 7 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $0.67 | 76.58% | 29 |
| 7 Nov, 12:02 UTC | $0.67 | 76.60% | 28 |
| 7 Nov, 06:02 UTC | $0.67 | 76.63% | 28 |
| 7 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $0.67 | 76.66% | 28 |
| 6 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $0.67 | 76.61% | 29 |
| 6 Nov, 11:41 UTC | $0.67 | 76.69% | 28 |
| 6 Nov, 05:21 UTC | $0.67 | 77.02% | 28 |
| 5 Nov, 22:51 UTC | $0.67 | 77.07% | 28 |
| 5 Nov, 16:41 UTC | $0.67 | 76.97% | 29 |
| 5 Nov, 10:41 UTC | $0.67 | 76.60% | 29 |
| 5 Nov, 04:41 UTC | $0.67 | 76.77% | 29 |
| 4 Nov, 22:41 UTC | $0.67 | 76.68% | 29 |
| 4 Nov, 16:31 UTC | $0.67 | 76.71% | 29 |
| 4 Nov, 14:19 UTC | $0.67 | 76.71% | 29 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 0.0%pink 3.5%classified 0.0%#d32ee6 0.1%Legendary 0.1%restricted 8.9%violet 21.5%#8847ff 22.2%Mythical 5.6%milspec 6.1%blue 11.0%#4b69ff 20.8%best hit $34.61 (51.66x)