Toncoin
A case on csgo.net, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is csgo.net's own item price.
Price
$74.99
Advertised RTP
76.63%
EV $57.47 from 6 items
Observed RTP, 30d
77.79%
168 openings, odds method
Variance
0.7×
of price², per opening
Tail share
56.4%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
43.6%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values6 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 168 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ Talon Knife | Doppler (Factory New)knife · sunny | 1 in 1,487 | $784 | 0.9% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| M4A1-S | Blue Phosphor (Factory New)weapon · classified | 1 in 343 | $478 | 2.4% | 2 | 0.5 | — |
| ★ Hand Wraps | Cobalt Skulls (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary | 1 in 19 | $177 | 16.0% | 11 | 8.7 | 1.26× |
| AK-47 | Vulcan (Field-Tested)weapon · covert | 1 in 14 | $156 | 20.0% | 8 | 12.3 | 0.65× |
| P2000 | Fire Elemental (Field-Tested)weapon · covert | 43.5% | $75.79 | 57.4% | 72 | 73.2 | 0.98× |
| AUG | Death by Puppy (Field-Tested)weapon · classified | 43.6% | $4.23 | 3.2% | 74 | 73.2 | 1.01× |
Values are csgo.net's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgo-net:pf_case_ranges, 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 76.63%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC | $74.99 | 76.63% | 6 |
| 11 Nov, 02:44 UTC | $74.99 | 76.46% | 6 |
| 10 Nov, 20:44 UTC | $74.99 | 76.44% | 6 |
| 10 Nov, 14:44 UTC | $74.99 | 76.73% | 6 |
| 10 Nov, 08:34 UTC | $74.99 | 77.08% | 6 |
| 10 Nov, 02:24 UTC | $74.99 | 77.08% | 6 |
| 9 Nov, 20:24 UTC | $74.99 | 77.06% | 6 |
| 9 Nov, 14:24 UTC | $74.99 | 77.13% | 6 |
| 9 Nov, 08:24 UTC | $74.99 | 77.19% | 6 |
| 9 Nov, 02:14 UTC | $74.99 | 77.62% | 6 |
| 9 Nov, 01:55 UTC | $74.99 | 77.60% | 6 |
| 9 Nov, 00:05 UTC | $74.99 | 77.59% | 6 |
| 8 Nov, 18:22 UTC | $74.99 | 77.62% | 6 |
| 8 Nov, 12:22 UTC | $74.99 | 77.62% | 6 |
| 8 Nov, 06:22 UTC | $74.99 | 77.62% | 6 |
| 8 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $74.99 | 77.63% | 6 |
| 7 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $74.99 | 77.60% | 6 |
| 7 Nov, 12:02 UTC | $74.99 | 77.61% | 6 |
| 7 Nov, 06:02 UTC | $74.99 | 77.62% | 6 |
| 7 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $74.99 | 77.62% | 6 |
| 6 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $74.99 | 77.55% | 6 |
| 6 Nov, 11:41 UTC | $74.99 | 77.68% | 6 |
| 6 Nov, 05:21 UTC | $74.99 | 78.03% | 6 |
| 5 Nov, 22:51 UTC | $74.99 | 78.04% | 6 |
| 5 Nov, 16:41 UTC | $74.99 | 77.94% | 6 |
| 5 Nov, 10:41 UTC | $74.99 | 77.62% | 6 |
| 5 Nov, 04:41 UTC | $74.99 | 77.72% | 6 |
| 4 Nov, 22:41 UTC | $74.99 | 77.72% | 6 |
| 4 Nov, 16:31 UTC | $74.99 | 77.72% | 6 |
| 4 Nov, 14:19 UTC | $74.99 | 77.70% | 6 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedsunny 0.1%classified 43.9%extraordinary 5.2%covert 50.9%best hit —