Тур де Франс

A case on csgo.net, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is csgo.net's own item price.

Price

$0.11

Advertised RTP

79.67%

EV $0.09 from 29 items

Observed RTP, 30d

88.04%

451 openings, odds method

Variance

0.8×

of price², per opening

Tail share

30.4%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

90.4%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

13 openings · below min

7 days

89.81%±10.56289 openings

30 days

88.04%±8.30451 openings

since tracking started

88.04%±8.30451 openings

29.0%75.8%122.5%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	13	75.73%±46.0	—	odds
7d	289	89.81%±10.6	+1.7σ	odds
30d	451	88.04%±8.30	+1.8σ	odds
All	451	88.04%±8.30	+1.8σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values29 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 451 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
AWP \| Mortis (Minimal Wear)weapon · Legendary	1 in 9,644	$4.21	0.5%	0	0.0	—
CZ75-Auto \| Yellow Jacket (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 9,604	$4.06	0.5%	0	0.0	—
AK-47 \| Breakthrough (Field-Tested)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 7,097	$1.89	0.3%	0	0.1	—
Charm \| Magmatudecharm · violet	1 in 6,747	$1.79	0.3%	0	0.1	—
Desert Eagle \| Naga (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 6,415	$1.70	0.3%	0	0.1	—
Five-SeveN \| Triumvirate (Field-Tested)weapon · violet	1 in 5,078	$1.41	0.3%	0	0.1	—
M4A1-S \| Liquidation (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted	1 in 3,828	$1.19	0.4%	1	0.1	—
Desert Eagle \| Light Rail (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 3,000	$1.05	0.4%	3	0.2	—
USP-S \| Bleeding Edge (Field-Tested)weapon · Mythical	1 in 2,443	$0.96	0.4%	0	0.2	—
AWP \| Acheron (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 1,979	$0.87	0.5%	0	0.2	—
Desert Eagle \| Serpent Strike (Minimal Wear)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 1,010	$0.67	0.8%	0	0.4	—
M4A4 \| Sheet Lightning (Field-Tested)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 844	$0.62	0.8%	0	0.5	—
Dual Berettas \| Angel Eyes (Field-Tested)weapon · violet	1 in 640	$0.56	1.0%	1	0.7	—
MAC-10 \| Cat Fight (Well-Worn)weapon · violet	1 in 583	$0.54	1.1%	3	0.8	—
P250 \| Valence (Field-Tested)weapon · blue	1 in 119	$0.30	2.9%	2	3.8	0.53×
Five-SeveN \| Scumbria (Well-Worn)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 62	$0.23	4.2%	2	7.3	0.27×
Desert Eagle \| Calligraffiti (Well-Worn)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 50	$0.21	4.8%	1	9.0	0.11×
Glock-18 \| Teal Graf (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 23	$0.14	7.1%	10	19.7	0.51×
MP9 \| Black Sand (Well-Worn)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 16	$0.11	7.9%	16	29.0	0.55×
Charm \| Pocket AWPcharm · Rare	1 in 14	$0.10	8.0%	26	31.9	0.82×
Charm \| Fluffycharm · #4b69ff	1 in 14	$0.10	8.0%	34	32.8	1.04×
P90 \| Freight (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 13	$0.09	7.9%	29	34.7	0.84×
M4A4 \| Zubastick (Field-Tested)weapon · milspec	1 in 12	$0.08	7.8%	31	36.7	0.84×
MP9 \| Broken Record (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 11	$0.07	6.9%	44	40.4	1.09×
MAC-10 \| Light Box (Field-Tested)weapon · Rare	1 in 11	$0.07	6.9%	44	40.3	1.09×
AK-47 \| VariCamo Grey (Field-Tested)weapon · Uncommon	1 in 11	$0.05	5.3%	0	40.9	0.00×
SSG 08 \| Memorial (Well-Worn)weapon · milspec	1 in 11	$0.05	5.0%	21	40.5	0.52×
SSG 08 \| Dezastre (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 11	$0.05	5.0%	43	40.6	1.06×
MAG-7 \| Foresight (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 11	$0.05	4.6%	16	40.0	0.40×

Values are csgo.net's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgo-net:pf_case_ranges, 11 Nov, 14:55 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

Charm | Fluffycharm · #4b69ffshenimgeli$0.11$0.090.85x2h

SSG 08 | Dezastre (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ffda1lykk$$0.11$0.050.45x3h

MP9 | Black Sand (Well-Worn)weapon · #4b69ffda1lykk$$0.11$0.100.88x3h

Charm | Fluffycharm · #4b69ffBAAKENZI$0.11$0.090.85x6h

P90 | Freight (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ffBAAKENZI$0.11$0.090.82x6h

MP9 | Broken Record (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ffxCry$0.11$0.070.62x8h

M4A4 | Zubastick (Field-Tested)weapon · milspecxCry$0.11$0.080.75x8h

MAC-10 | Light Box (Field-Tested)weapon · RareSlinkeeee$0.11$0.070.62x10h

P90 | Freight (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ffSigaretu$0.11$0.080.73x12h

Glock-18 | Teal Graf (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ffStormicekkk$0.11$0.141.28x14h

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 79.67%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
11 Nov, 14:55 UTC	$0.11	79.67%	29
11 Nov, 08:54 UTC	$0.11	79.62%	29
11 Nov, 02:44 UTC	$0.11	79.40%	29
10 Nov, 20:44 UTC	$0.11	79.38%	29
10 Nov, 14:44 UTC	$0.11	79.80%	29
10 Nov, 08:34 UTC	$0.11	80.04%	29
10 Nov, 02:24 UTC	$0.11	80.04%	29
9 Nov, 20:24 UTC	$0.11	79.96%	29
9 Nov, 14:24 UTC	$0.11	79.99%	29
9 Nov, 08:24 UTC	$0.11	80.05%	30
9 Nov, 02:14 UTC	$0.11	80.74%	29
9 Nov, 01:55 UTC	$0.11	80.52%	30
9 Nov, 00:05 UTC	$0.11	80.50%	30
8 Nov, 18:22 UTC	$0.11	80.49%	30
8 Nov, 12:22 UTC	$0.11	80.57%	30
8 Nov, 06:22 UTC	$0.11	80.54%	30
8 Nov, 00:02 UTC	$0.11	80.75%	30
7 Nov, 18:02 UTC	$0.11	80.61%	30
7 Nov, 12:02 UTC	$0.11	80.52%	30
7 Nov, 06:02 UTC	$0.11	80.68%	30
7 Nov, 00:02 UTC	$0.11	80.68%	30
6 Nov, 18:02 UTC	$0.11	80.54%	30
6 Nov, 11:41 UTC	$0.11	80.63%	30
6 Nov, 05:21 UTC	$0.11	80.99%	30
5 Nov, 22:51 UTC	$0.11	80.94%	30
5 Nov, 16:41 UTC	$0.11	80.83%	30
5 Nov, 10:41 UTC	$0.11	80.50%	30
5 Nov, 04:41 UTC	$0.11	80.65%	30
4 Nov, 22:41 UTC	$0.11	80.80%	30
4 Nov, 16:31 UTC	$0.11	80.65%	30

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedLegendary 0.0%classified 0.0%#8847ff 0.2%violet 0.4%restricted 0.1%Mythical 0.0%#4b69ff 56.2%blue 0.8%Rare 16.0%milspec 17.1%Uncommon 9.1%best hit —