Toxic mining
A case on csgo.net, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is csgo.net's own item price.
Price
$0.14
Advertised RTP
62.66%
EV $0.09 from 11 items
Observed RTP, 30d
2810.28%
189 openings, odds method
Variance
12.6×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 63
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
98.4%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Outside band, 30 days. Advertised 63.25% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (2772.76% – 2847.80%, 189 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values11 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 192 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AK-47 | The Outsiders (Field-Tested)weapon · rare | 1 in 735 | $5.45 | 8.5% | 13 | 0.3 | — |
| Desert Eagle | Mecha Industries (Field-Tested)weapon · Legendary | 1 in 632 | $5.18 | 9.3% | 7 | 0.3 | — |
| FAMAS | Eye of Athena (Field-Tested)weapon · classified | 1 in 612 | $5.13 | 9.6% | 21 | 0.3 | — |
| AWP | Mortis (Field-Tested)weapon · classified | 1 in 211 | $3.58 | 19.3% | 57 | 0.9 | — |
| USP-S | Jawbreaker (Field-Tested)weapon · classified | 1 in 154 | $3.22 | 23.8% | 70 | 1.2 | 56.28× |
| XM1014 | Hieroglyph (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer | 38.0% | $0.04 | 16.9% | 0 | 73.0 | 0.00× |
| Five-SeveN | Forest Night (Minimal Wear)weapon · Consumer | 26.7% | $0.03 | 8.2% | 0 | 51.2 | 0.00× |
| Sawed-Off | Forest DDPAT (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer | 17.3% | $0.02 | 3.3% | 0 | 33.2 | 0.00× |
| MAG-7 | Copper Oxide (Field-Tested)weapon · #b0c3d9 | 1 in 18 | <$0.01 | 0.4% | 0 | 11.0 | 0.00× |
| P250 | Plum Netting (Minimal Wear)weapon · consumer | 1 in 18 | <$0.01 | 0.4% | 0 | 11.0 | 0.00× |
| G3SG1 | Green Cell (Field-Tested)weapon · #b0c3d9 | 1 in 20 | <$0.01 | 0.3% | 0 | 9.6 | 0.00× |
Values are csgo.net's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgo-net:pf_case_ranges, 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 62.66%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC | $0.14 | 62.66% | 11 |
| 11 Nov, 02:44 UTC | $0.14 | 62.65% | 6 |
| 10 Nov, 20:44 UTC | $0.14 | 62.57% | 6 |
| 10 Nov, 14:44 UTC | $0.14 | 62.84% | 6 |
| 10 Nov, 08:34 UTC | $0.14 | 63.12% | 6 |
| 10 Nov, 02:24 UTC | $0.14 | 63.11% | 6 |
| 9 Nov, 20:24 UTC | $0.14 | 63.12% | 6 |
| 9 Nov, 14:24 UTC | $0.14 | 62.67% | 6 |
| 9 Nov, 08:24 UTC | $0.14 | 62.72% | 6 |
| 9 Nov, 02:14 UTC | $0.14 | 63.64% | 6 |
| 9 Nov, 01:55 UTC | $0.14 | 63.63% | 6 |
| 9 Nov, 00:05 UTC | $0.14 | 63.01% | 6 |
| 8 Nov, 18:22 UTC | $0.14 | 63.64% | 6 |
| 8 Nov, 12:22 UTC | $0.14 | 63.02% | 6 |
| 8 Nov, 06:22 UTC | $0.14 | 63.50% | 11 |
| 8 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $0.14 | 63.59% | 11 |
| 7 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $0.14 | 63.23% | 6 |
| 7 Nov, 12:02 UTC | $0.14 | 63.22% | 6 |
| 7 Nov, 06:02 UTC | $0.14 | 63.00% | 6 |
| 7 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $0.14 | 62.99% | 6 |
| 6 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $0.14 | 62.98% | 6 |
| 6 Nov, 11:41 UTC | $0.14 | 63.24% | 6 |
| 6 Nov, 05:21 UTC | $0.14 | 63.56% | 6 |
| 5 Nov, 22:51 UTC | $0.14 | 64.00% | 6 |
| 5 Nov, 16:41 UTC | $0.14 | 63.82% | 6 |
| 5 Nov, 10:41 UTC | $0.14 | 63.62% | 6 |
| 5 Nov, 04:41 UTC | $0.14 | 63.25% | 6 |
| 4 Nov, 22:41 UTC | $0.14 | 63.29% | 11 |
| 4 Nov, 16:31 UTC | $0.14 | 63.33% | 11 |
| 4 Nov, 14:19 UTC | $0.14 | 63.19% | 11 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedrare 0.1%Legendary 0.2%classified 1.3%consumer 61.0%Consumer 26.7%#b0c3d9 10.7%best hit $7.44 (53.14x)