Train

A case on csgo.net (Collection), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is csgo.net's own item price.

Price

$0.09

Advertised RTP

68.91%

EV $0.06 from 15 items

Observed RTP, 30d

235.04%

13 openings, odds method

Variance

0.3×

of price², per opening

Tail share

26.6%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

73.4%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

7 days

13 openings · below min

30 days

13 openings · below min

since tracking started

13 openings · below min

69.0%167.0%265.0%

Small sample. 13 openings and 3.6 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	0	—	—	—
7d	13	235.04%±29.4	—	odds
30d	13	235.04%±29.4	—	odds
All	13	235.04%±29.4	—	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values15 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 13 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
Desert Eagle \| Urban Rubble (Minimal Wear)weapon · Rare	1 in 193	$0.33	2.8%	2	0.1	—
Tec-9 \| Red Quartz (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 89	$0.25	4.5%	3	0.1	—
MAC-10 \| Candy Apple (Minimal Wear)weapon · 2	1 in 26	$0.15	9.2%	0	0.5	—
Sawed-Off \| Amber Fade (Field-Tested)weapon · milspec	1 in 19	$0.13	10.7%	5	0.7	—
M4A4 \| Urban DDPAT (Field-Tested)weapon · Uncommon	1 in 13	$0.10	12.4%	0	1.0	0.00×
MAG-7 \| Metallic DDPAT (Factory New)weapon · light blue	1 in 12	$0.10	12.5%	0	1.0	0.00×
SCAR-20 \| Carbon Fiber (Minimal Wear)weapon · 2	1 in 11	$0.09	12.9%	0	1.2	0.00×
P250 \| Metallic DDPAT (Factory New)weapon · industrial	10.1%	$0.08	12.9%	0	1.3	0.00×
P90 \| Ash Wood (Minimal Wear)weapon · industrial	12.8%	$0.05	10.7%	0	1.7	0.00×
Five-SeveN \| Forest Night (Minimal Wear)weapon · Consumer	10.7%	$0.03	4.7%	0	1.4	0.00×
G3SG1 \| Polar Camo (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer	1 in 13	$0.02	2.1%	0	1.0	0.00×
UMP-45 \| Urban DDPAT (Field-Tested)weapon · #777777	1 in 15	$0.01	1.6%	0	0.9	—
Nova \| Polar Mesh (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer	1 in 14	$0.01	1.7%	0	0.9	—
Dual Berettas \| Colony (Field-Tested)weapon · #777777	1 in 19	$0.01	0.9%	0	0.7	—
PP-Bizon \| Urban Dashed (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer	1 in 27	<$0.01	0.5%	0	0.5	—

Values are csgo.net's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgo-net:pf_case_ranges, 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

Sawed-Off | Amber Fade (Field-Tested)weapon · milspecSAYREX1T$0.09$0.141.57x1d

Tec-9 | Red Quartz (Minimal Wear)weapon · restrictedkytys5000$0.09$0.262.83x1d

Desert Eagle | Urban Rubble (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec[GRS] Capo$0.09$0.222.41x2d

Desert Eagle | Urban Rubble (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec_HelgaR_$0.09$0.202.21x3d

Tec-9 | Red Quartz (Minimal Wear)weapon · restrictedKillua Zoldyck$0.09$0.262.87x3d

Sawed-Off | Amber Fade (Field-Tested)weapon · milspecKillua Zoldyck$0.09$0.141.61x3d

Desert Eagle | Urban Rubble (Field-Tested)weapon · mil specKillua Zoldyck$0.09$0.353.84x3d

Tec-9 | Red Quartz (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted[GRS] Capo$0.09$0.262.88x4d

Desert Eagle | Urban Rubble (Minimal Wear)weapon · Rarepudra$0.09$0.252.77x5d

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 68.91%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
11 Nov, 08:54 UTC	$0.09	68.91%	15
11 Nov, 02:44 UTC	$0.09	68.87%	15
10 Nov, 20:44 UTC	$0.09	68.89%	15
10 Nov, 14:44 UTC	$0.09	69.13%	15
10 Nov, 08:34 UTC	$0.09	69.38%	15
10 Nov, 02:24 UTC	$0.09	69.37%	15
9 Nov, 20:24 UTC	$0.09	69.47%	15
9 Nov, 14:24 UTC	$0.09	69.41%	15
9 Nov, 08:24 UTC	$0.09	69.32%	15
9 Nov, 02:14 UTC	$0.09	69.92%	15
9 Nov, 01:55 UTC	$0.09	69.90%	15
9 Nov, 00:05 UTC	$0.09	69.86%	15
8 Nov, 18:22 UTC	$0.09	69.91%	15
8 Nov, 12:22 UTC	$0.09	69.89%	15
8 Nov, 06:22 UTC	$0.09	69.74%	15
8 Nov, 00:02 UTC	$0.09	69.90%	15
7 Nov, 18:02 UTC	$0.09	69.84%	15
7 Nov, 12:02 UTC	$0.09	69.91%	15
7 Nov, 06:02 UTC	$0.09	69.77%	15
7 Nov, 00:02 UTC	$0.09	69.79%	15
6 Nov, 18:02 UTC	$0.09	69.70%	15
6 Nov, 11:41 UTC	$0.09	70.03%	15
6 Nov, 05:21 UTC	$0.09	70.21%	15
5 Nov, 22:51 UTC	$0.09	70.19%	15
5 Nov, 16:41 UTC	$0.09	70.16%	15
5 Nov, 10:41 UTC	$0.09	69.95%	15
5 Nov, 04:41 UTC	$0.09	70.01%	15
4 Nov, 22:41 UTC	$0.09	69.94%	15
4 Nov, 16:31 UTC	$0.09	69.84%	15
4 Nov, 14:19 UTC	$0.09	69.84%	15

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed2 13.3%Rare 0.5%restricted 1.1%milspec 5.3%Uncommon 7.7%light blue 8.0%industrial 22.9%Consumer 10.7%consumer 18.4%#777777 12.0%best hit —