CS2 Train
A case on csgo.net, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is csgo.net's own item price.
Price
$0.27
Advertised RTP
76.70%
EV $0.21 from 30 items
Observed RTP, 30d
56.67%
1 openings, odds method
Variance
1.1×
of price², per opening
Tail share
24.9%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
62.5%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 1 openings and 0.3 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values30 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are csgo.net's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgo-net:pf_case_ranges, 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 76.70%
No data in this window
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC | $0.27 | 76.70% | 30 |
| 11 Nov, 02:44 UTC | $0.27 | 76.47% | 30 |
| 10 Nov, 20:44 UTC | $0.27 | 76.47% | 30 |
| 10 Nov, 14:44 UTC | $0.27 | 76.74% | 30 |
| 10 Nov, 08:34 UTC | $0.27 | 77.08% | 30 |
| 10 Nov, 02:24 UTC | $0.27 | 77.10% | 30 |
| 9 Nov, 20:24 UTC | $0.27 | 77.08% | 30 |
| 9 Nov, 14:24 UTC | $0.27 | 77.11% | 30 |
| 9 Nov, 08:24 UTC | $0.27 | 77.16% | 30 |
| 9 Nov, 02:14 UTC | $0.27 | 77.68% | 30 |
| 9 Nov, 01:55 UTC | $0.27 | 77.64% | 30 |
| 9 Nov, 00:05 UTC | $0.27 | 77.61% | 30 |
| 8 Nov, 18:22 UTC | $0.27 | 77.61% | 30 |
| 8 Nov, 12:22 UTC | $0.27 | 77.68% | 30 |
| 8 Nov, 06:22 UTC | $0.27 | 77.65% | 30 |
| 8 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $0.27 | 77.63% | 30 |
| 7 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $0.27 | 77.61% | 30 |
| 7 Nov, 12:02 UTC | $0.27 | 77.62% | 30 |
| 7 Nov, 06:02 UTC | $0.27 | 77.64% | 30 |
| 7 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $0.27 | 77.66% | 30 |
| 6 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $0.27 | 77.52% | 30 |
| 6 Nov, 11:41 UTC | $0.27 | 77.67% | 30 |
| 6 Nov, 05:21 UTC | $0.27 | 78.02% | 30 |
| 5 Nov, 22:51 UTC | $0.27 | 78.08% | 30 |
| 5 Nov, 16:41 UTC | $0.27 | 77.98% | 30 |
| 5 Nov, 10:41 UTC | $0.27 | 77.63% | 30 |
| 5 Nov, 04:41 UTC | $0.27 | 77.78% | 30 |
| 4 Nov, 22:41 UTC | $0.27 | 77.75% | 30 |
| 4 Nov, 16:31 UTC | $0.27 | 77.75% | 30 |
| 4 Nov, 14:19 UTC | $0.27 | 77.70% | 30 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 0.0%classified 0.1%restricted 4.0%blue 0.2%mil spec 10.4%Rare 13.8%#8847ff 4.6%violet 10.1%light blue 6.6%#4b69ff 11.9%milspec 23.4%industrial 14.9%best hit —