Сладость или гадость

A case on csgo.net (Battle), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is csgo.net's own item price.

Price

$6.79

Advertised RTP

64.51%

EV $4.38 from 2 items

Observed RTP, 30d

62.41%

2,300 openings, odds method

Variance

4.2×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 32

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

96.9%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

73.82%±24.06287 openings

7 days

62.35%±10.541,648 openings

30 days

62.41%±8.912,300 openings

since tracking started

62.41%±8.912,300 openings

49.0%73.8%98.5%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	287	73.82%±24.1	+0.8σ	odds
7d	1,648	62.35%±10.5	−0.5σ	odds
30d	2,300	62.41%±8.91	−0.6σ	odds
All	2,300	62.41%±8.91	−0.6σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values2 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 2,301 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
AK-47 \| Consequence of the Jinn (Well-Worn)weapon · red	1 in 32	$82.33	58.2%	54	71.2	0.76×
AK-47 \| Breakthrough (Field-Tested)weapon · #8847ff	96.9%	$1.89	41.8%	2,147	2229.8	0.96×

Values are csgo.net's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgo-net:pf_case_ranges, 11 Nov, 14:55 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

AK-47 | Breakthrough (Field-Tested)weapon · #8847ffOldman$6.79$1.880.28x6m

AK-47 | Breakthrough (Field-Tested)weapon · #8847ffsnkrsl$6.79$1.880.28x19m

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 64.51%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
11 Nov, 14:55 UTC	$6.79	64.51%	2
11 Nov, 08:54 UTC	$6.79	64.26%	2
11 Nov, 02:44 UTC	$6.79	64.13%	2
10 Nov, 20:44 UTC	$6.79	64.14%	2
10 Nov, 14:44 UTC	$6.79	64.37%	2
10 Nov, 08:34 UTC	$6.79	64.77%	2
10 Nov, 02:24 UTC	$6.79	64.75%	2
9 Nov, 20:24 UTC	$6.79	64.69%	2
9 Nov, 14:24 UTC	$6.79	64.70%	2
9 Nov, 08:24 UTC	$6.79	64.79%	2
9 Nov, 02:14 UTC	$6.79	65.09%	2
9 Nov, 01:55 UTC	$6.79	65.13%	2
9 Nov, 00:05 UTC	$6.79	65.10%	2
8 Nov, 18:22 UTC	$6.79	65.16%	2
8 Nov, 12:22 UTC	$6.79	65.20%	2
8 Nov, 06:22 UTC	$6.79	65.21%	2
8 Nov, 00:02 UTC	$6.79	65.23%	2
7 Nov, 18:02 UTC	$6.79	65.21%	2
7 Nov, 12:02 UTC	$6.79	65.22%	2
7 Nov, 06:02 UTC	$6.79	65.14%	2
7 Nov, 00:02 UTC	$6.79	65.20%	2
6 Nov, 18:02 UTC	$6.79	65.06%	2
6 Nov, 11:41 UTC	$6.79	65.22%	2
6 Nov, 05:21 UTC	$6.79	65.52%	2
5 Nov, 22:51 UTC	$6.79	65.52%	2
5 Nov, 16:41 UTC	$6.79	65.46%	2
5 Nov, 10:41 UTC	$6.79	65.14%	2
5 Nov, 04:41 UTC	$6.79	65.20%	2
4 Nov, 22:41 UTC	$6.79	65.21%	2
4 Nov, 16:31 UTC	$6.79	65.30%	2

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedred 3.1%#8847ff 96.9%best hit —