Tron
A case on csgo.net (Battle), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is csgo.net's own item price.
Price
$139.00
Advertised RTP
74.61%
EV $103.71 from 11 items
Observed RTP, 30d
71.95%
107 openings, odds method
Variance
0.6×
of price², per opening
Tail share
31.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
69.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values11 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 108 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M4A1-S | Hot Rod (Factory New)weapon · classified | 1 in 977 | $1,141 | 1.1% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| ★ Butterfly Knife | Autotronic (Field-Tested)knife · covert | 1 in 243 | $706 | 2.8% | 1 | 0.4 | — |
| AK-47 | X-Ray (Field-Tested)weapon · covert | 1 in 114 | $540 | 4.6% | 1 | 0.9 | — |
| ★ M9 Bayonet | Crimson Web (Field-Tested)knife · covert | 1 in 61 | $428 | 6.8% | 2 | 1.8 | 1.12× |
| ★ Sport Gloves | Slingshot (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary | 1 in 20 | $270 | 13.3% | 1 | 5.5 | 0.18× |
| AWP | Oni Taiji (Field-Tested)weapon · covert | 1 in 11 | $200 | 18.1% | 8 | 10.1 | 0.79× |
| ★ Sport Gloves | Scarlet Shamagh (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary | 13.4% | $159 | 20.6% | 20 | 14.5 | 1.38× |
| ★ Navaja Knife | Slaughter (Minimal Wear)knife · covert | 21.7% | $75.30 | 15.7% | 25 | 23.4 | 1.07× |
| ★ Broken Fang Gloves | Needle Point (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary | 17.6% | $42.66 | 7.3% | 21 | 19.0 | 1.10× |
| AWP | Redline (Field-Tested)weapon · classified | 16.0% | $36.79 | 5.7% | 13 | 17.2 | 0.75× |
| Glock-18 | Gold Toof (Minimal Wear)weapon · Ancient | 13.8% | $30.29 | 4.0% | 4 | 14.9 | 0.27× |
Values are csgo.net's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgo-net:pf_case_ranges, 11 Nov, 14:55 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 74.61%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Nov, 14:55 UTC | $139 | 74.61% | 11 |
| 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC | $139 | 74.42% | 11 |
| 11 Nov, 02:44 UTC | $139 | 74.25% | 11 |
| 10 Nov, 20:44 UTC | $139 | 74.23% | 11 |
| 10 Nov, 14:44 UTC | $139 | 74.52% | 11 |
| 10 Nov, 08:34 UTC | $139 | 74.84% | 11 |
| 10 Nov, 02:24 UTC | $139 | 74.85% | 11 |
| 9 Nov, 20:24 UTC | $139 | 74.84% | 11 |
| 9 Nov, 14:24 UTC | $139 | 74.90% | 11 |
| 9 Nov, 08:24 UTC | $139 | 74.96% | 11 |
| 9 Nov, 02:14 UTC | $139 | 75.38% | 11 |
| 9 Nov, 01:55 UTC | $139 | 75.36% | 11 |
| 9 Nov, 00:05 UTC | $139 | 75.35% | 11 |
| 8 Nov, 18:22 UTC | $139 | 75.37% | 11 |
| 8 Nov, 12:22 UTC | $139 | 75.38% | 11 |
| 8 Nov, 06:22 UTC | $139 | 75.37% | 11 |
| 8 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $139 | 75.38% | 11 |
| 7 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $139 | 75.36% | 11 |
| 7 Nov, 12:02 UTC | $139 | 75.37% | 11 |
| 7 Nov, 06:02 UTC | $139 | 75.38% | 11 |
| 7 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $139 | 75.37% | 11 |
| 6 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $139 | 75.31% | 11 |
| 6 Nov, 11:41 UTC | $139 | 75.43% | 11 |
| 6 Nov, 05:21 UTC | $139 | 75.77% | 11 |
| 5 Nov, 22:51 UTC | $139 | 75.78% | 11 |
| 5 Nov, 16:41 UTC | $139 | 75.69% | 11 |
| 5 Nov, 10:41 UTC | $139 | 75.38% | 11 |
| 5 Nov, 04:41 UTC | $139 | 75.48% | 11 |
| 4 Nov, 22:41 UTC | $139 | 75.47% | 11 |
| 4 Nov, 16:31 UTC | $139 | 75.48% | 11 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedclassified 16.1%covert 34.0%extraordinary 36.2%Ancient 13.8%best hit $705 (5.07x)