Трофейная рыбешка

A case on csgo.net, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is csgo.net's own item price.

Price

$53.99

Advertised RTP

76.82%

EV $41.48 from 28 items

Observed RTP, 30d

83.53%

7 openings, odds method

Variance

0.4×

of price², per opening

Tail share

34.8%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

79.1%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

7 days

7 openings · below min

30 days

7 openings · below min

since tracking started

7 openings · below min

35.0%83.5%132.0%

Small sample. 7 openings and 2.0 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	0	—	—	—
7d	7	83.53%±48.1	—	odds
30d	7	83.53%±48.1	—	odds
All	7	83.53%±48.1	—	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values28 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 7 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ Karambit \| Doppler (Factory New)knife · Covert	1 in 8,791	$1,124	0.3%	0	0.0	—
M4A4 \| Poseidon (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 8,596	$1,061	0.3%	0	0.0	—
★ Talon Knife \| Doppler (Factory New)knife · sunny	1 in 6,821	$747	0.3%	0	0.0	—
★ Sport Gloves \| Superconductor (Battle-Scarred)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 6,658	$729	0.3%	0	0.0	—
M4A1-S \| Blue Phosphor (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 3,601	$477	0.3%	0	0.0	—
★ Specialist Gloves \| Cloud Chaser (Field-Tested)gloves · legendary	1 in 2,654	$411	0.4%	0	0.0	—
★ Nomad Knife \| Doppler (Factory New)knife · covert knife	1 in 1,470	$319	0.5%	0	0.0	—
Dual Berettas \| Duelist (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 1,119	$287	0.6%	0	0.0	—
★ Specialist Gloves \| Big Swell (Field-Tested)gloves · rare	1 in 232	$160	1.7%	0	0.0	—
M4A1-S \| Printstream (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 232	$160	1.7%	0	0.0	—
★ Bayonet \| Bright Water (Field-Tested)knife · gold	1 in 158	$138	2.1%	0	0.0	—
M4A1-S \| Master Piece (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 69	$99.43	3.5%	0	0.1	—
SSG 08 \| Blood in the Water (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 59	$93.16	3.8%	1	0.1	—
P2000 \| Ocean Foam (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 58	$92.02	3.8%	0	0.1	—
P2000 \| Fire Elemental (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 38	$75.80	4.8%	0	0.2	—
Desert Eagle \| Cobalt Disruption (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 30	$67.85	5.4%	1	0.2	—
AK-47 \| Nightwish (Minimal Wear)weapon · red	1 in 24	$60.01	5.9%	0	0.3	—
M4A4 \| The Emperor (Minimal Wear)weapon · red	1 in 23	$58.50	6.0%	0	0.3	—
AWP \| Neo-Noir (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 15	$41.07	6.7%	1	0.5	—
Desert Eagle \| Printstream (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 14	$39.13	6.7%	0	0.5	—
FAMAS \| Waters of Nephthys (Field-Tested)weapon · pink	1 in 14	$37.82	6.6%	1	0.5	—
USP-S \| Whiteout (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 13	$33.87	6.4%	0	0.5	—
Charm \| Quick Silvercharm · red	1 in 12	$31.16	6.1%	0	0.6	—
AK-47 \| Inheritance (Field-Tested)weapon · red	1 in 12	$30.88	6.1%	1	0.6	—
M4A4 \| Neo-Noir (Field-Tested)weapon · Ancient	1 in 12	$30.66	6.1%	1	0.6	—
P250 \| Undertow (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 12	$23.99	5.0%	0	0.6	—
M4A1-S \| Guardian (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 12	$23.22	4.8%	1	0.6	—
Glock-18 \| AXIA (Minimal Wear)weapon · rare	1 in 12	$19.06	3.8%	0	0.6	—

Values are csgo.net's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgo-net:pf_case_ranges, 11 Nov, 14:55 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

SSG 08 | Blood in the Water (Minimal Wear)weapon · covertVice$53.99$89.931.67x1d

Desert Eagle | Cobalt Disruption (Minimal Wear)weapon · classifiedVice$53.99$69.471.29x1d

FAMAS | Waters of Nephthys (Field-Tested)weapon · pinkVice$53.99$37.830.70x1d

M4A4 | Neo-Noir (Field-Tested)weapon · AncientVice$53.99$27.590.51x1d

AWP | Neo-Noir (Minimal Wear)weapon · covertVice$53.99$38.910.72x1d

M4A1-S | Guardian (Field-Tested)weapon · classifiedVice$53.99$21.640.40x1d

AK-47 | Inheritance (Field-Tested)weapon · redVice$53.99$30.330.56x1d

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 76.82%

No data in this window

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
11 Nov, 14:55 UTC	$53.99	76.82%	28
11 Nov, 08:54 UTC	$53.99	76.63%	28
11 Nov, 02:44 UTC	$53.99	76.45%	28
10 Nov, 20:44 UTC	$53.99	76.43%	28
10 Nov, 14:44 UTC	$53.99	76.73%	28
10 Nov, 08:34 UTC	$53.99	77.07%	28
10 Nov, 02:24 UTC	$53.99	77.07%	28
9 Nov, 20:24 UTC	$53.99	77.05%	28
9 Nov, 14:24 UTC	$53.99	77.12%	28
9 Nov, 08:24 UTC	$53.99	77.19%	28
9 Nov, 02:14 UTC	$53.99	77.62%	28
9 Nov, 01:55 UTC	$53.99	77.59%	28
9 Nov, 00:05 UTC	$53.99	77.58%	28
8 Nov, 18:22 UTC	$53.99	77.61%	28
8 Nov, 12:22 UTC	$53.99	77.61%	28
8 Nov, 06:22 UTC	$53.99	77.61%	28
8 Nov, 00:02 UTC	$53.99	77.62%	28
7 Nov, 18:02 UTC	$53.99	77.59%	28
7 Nov, 12:02 UTC	$53.99	77.60%	28
7 Nov, 06:02 UTC	$53.99	77.61%	28
7 Nov, 00:02 UTC	$53.99	77.61%	28
6 Nov, 18:02 UTC	$53.99	77.55%	28
6 Nov, 11:41 UTC	$53.99	77.67%	28
6 Nov, 05:21 UTC	$53.99	78.02%	28
5 Nov, 22:51 UTC	$53.99	78.03%	28
5 Nov, 16:41 UTC	$53.99	77.93%	28
5 Nov, 10:41 UTC	$53.99	77.62%	28
5 Nov, 04:41 UTC	$53.99	77.71%	28
4 Nov, 22:41 UTC	$53.99	77.71%	28
4 Nov, 16:31 UTC	$53.99	77.72%	28

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedCovert 0.0%classified 31.6%sunny 0.0%extraordinary 0.0%legendary 0.0%covert knife 0.1%restricted 0.1%rare 8.7%covert 18.6%gold 0.6%red 24.8%pink 7.3%Ancient 8.2%best hit —