Price
$6.79
Advertised RTP
76.21%
EV $5.17 from 29 items
Observed RTP, 30d
76.55%
5,137 openings, odds method
Variance
0.6×
of price², per opening
Tail share
33.8%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
78.4%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values29 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 5,158 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are csgo.net's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgo-net:pf_case_ranges, 11 Nov, 14:55 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 76.21%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Nov, 14:55 UTC | $6.79 | 76.21% | 29 |
| 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC | $6.79 | 76.03% | 29 |
| 11 Nov, 02:44 UTC | $6.79 | 75.87% | 28 |
| 10 Nov, 20:44 UTC | $6.79 | 75.84% | 29 |
| 10 Nov, 14:44 UTC | $6.79 | 76.11% | 29 |
| 10 Nov, 08:34 UTC | $6.79 | 76.47% | 29 |
| 10 Nov, 02:24 UTC | $6.79 | 76.48% | 29 |
| 9 Nov, 20:24 UTC | $6.79 | 76.47% | 28 |
| 9 Nov, 14:24 UTC | $6.79 | 76.54% | 29 |
| 9 Nov, 08:24 UTC | $6.79 | 76.57% | 28 |
| 9 Nov, 02:14 UTC | $6.79 | 77.02% | 28 |
| 9 Nov, 01:55 UTC | $6.79 | 77.00% | 28 |
| 9 Nov, 00:05 UTC | $6.79 | 76.95% | 28 |
| 8 Nov, 18:22 UTC | $6.79 | 77.00% | 28 |
| 8 Nov, 12:22 UTC | $6.79 | 77.03% | 28 |
| 8 Nov, 06:22 UTC | $6.79 | 77.01% | 28 |
| 8 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $6.79 | 77.00% | 28 |
| 7 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $6.79 | 76.99% | 28 |
| 7 Nov, 12:02 UTC | $6.79 | 76.99% | 28 |
| 7 Nov, 06:02 UTC | $6.79 | 77.01% | 28 |
| 7 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $6.79 | 76.99% | 28 |
| 6 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $6.79 | 76.93% | 27 |
| 6 Nov, 11:41 UTC | $6.79 | 77.03% | 27 |
| 6 Nov, 05:21 UTC | $6.79 | 77.41% | 27 |
| 5 Nov, 22:51 UTC | $6.79 | 77.42% | 27 |
| 5 Nov, 16:41 UTC | $6.79 | 77.34% | 27 |
| 5 Nov, 10:41 UTC | $6.79 | 77.03% | 27 |
| 5 Nov, 04:41 UTC | $6.79 | 77.11% | 28 |
| 4 Nov, 22:41 UTC | $6.79 | 77.09% | 28 |
| 4 Nov, 16:31 UTC | $6.79 | 77.12% | 28 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedImmortal 0.0%rare 0.6%extraordinary 0.0%covert 0.1%red 0.2%classified 26.9%pink 20.5%#d32ee6 6.8%restricted 2.2%#d32ce6 2.7%Mythical 4.1%Legendary 11.5%#8847ff 12.3%violet 12.2%best hit —