Operation Vanguard Weapon Case

A case on csgo.net (Standard), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is csgo.net's own item price.

Price

$2.69

Advertised RTP

67.57%

EV $1.82 from 14 items

Observed RTP, 30d

66.63%

311 openings, odds method

Variance

3.1×

of price², per opening

Tail share

50.2%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

89.2%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

62 openings · below min

7 days

66.98%±20.17291 openings

30 days

66.63%±19.52311 openings

since tracking started

66.63%±19.52311 openings

21.5%65.0%108.5%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	62	65.06%±42.9	—	odds
7d	291	66.98%±20.2	−0.1σ	odds
30d	311	66.63%±19.5	−0.1σ	odds
All	311	66.63%±19.5	−0.1σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values14 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 311 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ Butterfly Knife \| Fade (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 199,986	$1,962	0.5%	0	0.0	—
★ Karambit \| Ultraviolet (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 199,495	$598	0.2%	0	0.0	—
★ Flip Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 190,484	$221	0.1%	0	0.0	—
★ Flip Knife \| Stained (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 152,329	$120	0.0%	0	0.0	—
AK-47 \| Wasteland Rebel (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 91,586	$77.05	0.0%	0	0.0	—
P2000 \| Fire Elemental (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 89,158	$75.80	0.0%	0	0.0	—
P250 \| Cartel (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 345	$9.71	1.5%	1	0.9	—
XM1014 \| Tranquility (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 227	$8.42	2.0%	0	1.4	0.00×
SCAR-20 \| Cardiac (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 184	$7.84	2.3%	2	1.7	1.18×
M4A1-S \| Basilisk (Field-Tested)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 140	$7.13	2.8%	3	2.2	1.35×
M4A4 \| Griffin (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 11	$2.88	14.0%	34	27.5	1.24×
Five-SeveN \| Urban Hazard (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec	13.4%	$2.43	17.9%	15	41.7	0.36×
Glock-18 \| Grinder (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical	26.0%	$1.79	25.6%	77	80.8	0.95×
Sawed-Off \| Highwayman (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	49.8%	$1.20	32.9%	173	154.9	1.12×

Values are csgo.net's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgo-net:pf_case_ranges, 11 Nov, 14:55 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

Glock-18 | Grinder (Minimal Wear)weapon · MythicalSatella$2.69$1.770.66x2h

Sawed-Off | Highwayman (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted,,N!ppL3"$2.69$1.220.45x5h

M4A4 | Griffin (Field-Tested)weapon · restrictedРаст$2.69$2.871.07x5h

Sawed-Off | Highwayman (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted،دنH.u.y.L.o.P.a.N. 2.0ال$2.69$1.300.48x7h

Sawed-Off | Highwayman (Field-Tested)weapon · restrictedROLTON$2.69$1.300.48x10h

Sawed-Off | Highwayman (Field-Tested)weapon · restrictedSif$2.69$1.350.50x15h

Glock-18 | Grinder (Minimal Wear)weapon · MythicalSif$2.69$1.770.66x15h

Five-SeveN | Urban Hazard (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil specSif$2.69$2.330.87x15h

Sawed-Off | Highwayman (Field-Tested)weapon · restrictedSif$2.69$1.350.50x15h

Glock-18 | Grinder (Minimal Wear)weapon · MythicalSif$2.69$1.770.66x15h

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 67.57%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
11 Nov, 14:55 UTC	$2.69	67.57%	14
11 Nov, 08:54 UTC	$2.69	67.34%	14
11 Nov, 02:44 UTC	$2.69	67.14%	14
10 Nov, 20:44 UTC	$2.69	67.05%	14
10 Nov, 14:44 UTC	$2.69	67.48%	14
10 Nov, 08:34 UTC	$2.69	67.78%	14
10 Nov, 02:24 UTC	$2.69	67.75%	14
9 Nov, 20:24 UTC	$2.69	67.75%	14
9 Nov, 14:24 UTC	$2.69	67.83%	14
9 Nov, 08:24 UTC	$2.69	67.74%	14
9 Nov, 02:14 UTC	$2.69	68.29%	14
9 Nov, 01:55 UTC	$2.69	68.21%	14
9 Nov, 00:05 UTC	$2.69	68.13%	14
8 Nov, 18:22 UTC	$2.69	68.34%	14
8 Nov, 12:22 UTC	$2.69	68.22%	14
8 Nov, 06:22 UTC	$2.69	68.31%	14
8 Nov, 00:02 UTC	$2.69	68.27%	14
7 Nov, 18:02 UTC	$2.69	68.17%	14
7 Nov, 12:02 UTC	$2.69	68.28%	14
7 Nov, 06:02 UTC	$2.69	68.23%	14
7 Nov, 00:02 UTC	$2.69	68.26%	14
6 Nov, 18:02 UTC	$2.69	68.11%	14
6 Nov, 11:41 UTC	$2.69	68.21%	14
6 Nov, 05:21 UTC	$2.69	68.56%	14
5 Nov, 22:51 UTC	$2.69	68.54%	14
5 Nov, 16:41 UTC	$2.69	68.54%	14
5 Nov, 10:41 UTC	$2.69	68.19%	14
5 Nov, 04:41 UTC	$2.69	68.24%	14
4 Nov, 22:41 UTC	$2.69	68.22%	14
4 Nov, 16:31 UTC	$2.69	68.34%	14

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 0.0%classified 1.3%#8847ff 0.7%restricted 58.6%mil spec 13.4%Mythical 26.0%best hit —