vovo_grobau

A case on csgo.net (Blogger), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is csgo.net's own item price.

Price

$2.59

Advertised RTP

75.47%

EV $1.95 from 33 items

Observed RTP, 30d

83.31%

1,083 openings, odds method

Variance

0.4×

of price², per opening

Tail share

30.3%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

82.6%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

86 openings · below min

7 days

83.75%±4.06973 openings

30 days

83.31%±3.851,083 openings

since tracking started

83.31%±3.851,083 openings

60.0%74.3%88.5%

Outside band, 30 days. Advertised 76.41% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (79.46% – 87.16%, 1,083 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	86	73.77%±13.2	—	odds
7d	973	83.75%±4.06	+3.6σ	odds
30d	1,083	83.31%±3.85	+3.5σ	odds
All	1,083	83.31%±3.85	+3.5σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values33 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,083 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ Falchion Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 179,608	$156	0.0%	1	0.0	—
AK-47 \| Bloodsport (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 156,640	$116	0.0%	0	0.0	—
★ Specialist Gloves \| Marble Fade (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 154,163	$113	0.0%	0	0.0	—
SSG 08 \| Blood in the Water (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 128,658	$91.77	0.0%	0	0.0	—
R8 Revolver \| Fade (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 105,045	$77.97	0.0%	0	0.0	—
Desert Eagle \| Code Red (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 23,157	$38.24	0.1%	0	0.0	—
Glock-18 \| Neo-Noir (Field-Tested)weapon · Ancient	1 in 22,076	$37.55	0.1%	0	0.0	—
AK-47 \| Aquamarine Revenge (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 19,439	$35.81	0.1%	0	0.1	—
AWP \| LongDog (Well-Worn)weapon · red	1 in 18,323	$35.04	0.1%	0	0.1	—
P250 \| Undertow (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 6,301	$23.98	0.2%	0	0.2	—
AWP \| Crakow! (Field-Tested)weapon · pink	1 in 3,677	$19.91	0.3%	0	0.3	—
SSG 08 \| Bloodshot (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 2,475	$17.39	0.4%	1	0.4	—
M4A4 \| Hellish (Field-Tested)weapon · rare	1 in 1,315	$14.00	0.5%	1	0.8	—
P250 \| Muertos (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 892	$12.25	0.7%	3	1.2	2.47×
MP9 \| Hypnotic (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 842	$12.01	0.7%	2	1.3	1.55×
M4A4 \| Desolate Space (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 834	$11.97	0.7%	2	1.3	1.54×
R8 Revolver \| Llama Cannon (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 465	$9.77	1.1%	0	2.3	0.00×
Charm \| Baby Karat CTcharm · rare	1 in 181	$6.97	2.0%	4	6.0	0.67×
Desert Eagle \| Heirloom (Field-Tested)weapon · violet	1 in 125	$6.09	2.5%	11	8.7	1.27×
MP7 \| Smoking Kills (Field-Tested)weapon · uncommon	1 in 94	$5.46	3.0%	17	11.5	1.47×
Glock-18 \| Mirror Mosaic (Field-Tested)weapon · pink	1 in 77	$5.05	3.4%	18	14.1	1.28×
USP-S \| Jawbreaker (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 27	$3.22	6.0%	37	39.7	0.93×
AWP \| Duality (Field-Tested)weapon · pink	1 in 22	$2.91	6.6%	56	48.3	1.16×
M4A4 \| Griffin (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 21	$2.79	6.9%	45	52.2	0.86×
Charm \| Lil' Ecocharm · #d32ce6	1 in 18	$2.58	7.2%	68	59.4	1.14×
Tec-9 \| Remote Control (Well-Worn)weapon · pink	1 in 14	$2.11	8.0%	31	79.9	0.39×
AK-47 \| Steel Delta (Field-Tested)weapon · Rare	1 in 13	$2.02	8.0%	70	84.3	0.83×
AWP \| PAW (Field-Tested)weapon · Mythical	1 in 12	$1.97	8.1%	100	87.1	1.15×
Glock-18 \| Nuclear Garden (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 11	$1.70	8.1%	105	100.6	1.04×
XM1014 \| Seasons (Field-Tested)weapon · violet	11.1%	$1.23	7.0%	61	119.7	0.51×
MAC-10 \| Last Dive (Field-Tested)weapon · #8847ff	11.2%	$1.17	6.7%	113	120.9	0.93×
M4A4 \| Turbine (Field-Tested)weapon · violet	11.2%	$1.04	6.0%	121	121.8	0.99×
Negev \| Power Loader (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted	11.2%	$0.95	5.4%	108	120.8	0.89×

Values are csgo.net's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgo-net:pf_case_ranges, 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

★ Falchion Knife | Marble Fade (Factory New)knife · covertСанёчек$2.59$16161.97x6d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

Glock-18 | Nuclear Garden (Field-Tested)weapon · restrictedcengo01$2.59$1.710.66x17m

Desert Eagle | Heirloom (Field-Tested)weapon · violetMnemosyne$2.59$6.062.34x38m

MAC-10 | Last Dive (Field-Tested)weapon · #8847ffKatakia$2.59$1.180.46x42m

AK-47 | Steel Delta (Field-Tested)weapon · RareKatakia$2.59$1.960.76x42m

Tec-9 | Remote Control (Well-Worn)weapon · pinkKatakia$2.59$2.360.91x42m

AWP | PAW (Field-Tested)weapon · MythicalKatakia$2.59$2.020.78x42m

MAC-10 | Last Dive (Field-Tested)weapon · #8847ffMashono4ka♿$2.59$1.180.46x43m

M4A4 | Turbine (Field-Tested)weapon · violetMashono4ka♿$2.59$1.040.40x43m

Glock-18 | Nuclear Garden (Field-Tested)weapon · restrictedMashono4ka♿$2.59$1.710.66x43m

Negev | Power Loader (Well-Worn)weapon · restrictedMashono4ka♿$2.59$1.100.42x43m

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 75.47%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
11 Nov, 08:54 UTC	$2.59	75.47%	33
11 Nov, 02:44 UTC	$2.59	75.36%	33
10 Nov, 20:44 UTC	$2.59	75.33%	33
10 Nov, 14:44 UTC	$2.59	75.60%	34
10 Nov, 08:34 UTC	$2.59	75.95%	33
10 Nov, 02:24 UTC	$2.59	75.95%	33
9 Nov, 20:24 UTC	$2.59	75.93%	33
9 Nov, 14:24 UTC	$2.59	75.96%	33
9 Nov, 08:24 UTC	$2.59	76.08%	34
9 Nov, 02:14 UTC	$2.59	76.44%	34
9 Nov, 01:55 UTC	$2.59	76.42%	34
9 Nov, 00:05 UTC	$2.59	76.40%	34
8 Nov, 18:22 UTC	$2.59	76.42%	34
8 Nov, 12:22 UTC	$2.59	76.49%	33
8 Nov, 06:22 UTC	$2.59	76.46%	33
8 Nov, 00:02 UTC	$2.59	76.49%	33
7 Nov, 18:02 UTC	$2.59	76.46%	33
7 Nov, 12:02 UTC	$2.59	76.48%	33
7 Nov, 06:02 UTC	$2.59	76.50%	34
7 Nov, 00:02 UTC	$2.59	76.42%	34
6 Nov, 18:02 UTC	$2.59	76.39%	34
6 Nov, 11:41 UTC	$2.59	76.51%	34
6 Nov, 05:21 UTC	$2.59	76.85%	33
5 Nov, 22:51 UTC	$2.59	76.81%	33
5 Nov, 16:41 UTC	$2.59	76.74%	33
5 Nov, 10:41 UTC	$2.59	76.45%	34
5 Nov, 04:41 UTC	$2.59	76.59%	34
4 Nov, 22:41 UTC	$2.59	76.53%	34
4 Nov, 16:31 UTC	$2.59	76.55%	34
4 Nov, 14:19 UTC	$2.59	76.59%	34

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 0.0%extraordinary 0.0%Ancient 0.0%red 0.0%classified 4.2%pink 13.2%rare 0.6%restricted 25.4%violet 23.1%uncommon 1.1%#d32ce6 5.5%Rare 7.8%Mythical 8.0%#8847ff 11.2%best hit $161 (61.97x)