gambatracker
Live
Big wins
Blackjack$1,3692.50xSugar Supreme Powernudge$106151.4xLightning Baccarat$12.3K1.63xMines$1,4331.29xStake Exclusive Blackjack 7$1,8783.00xSuper Golden Spins$1,50175.00xMines$4,087102.2xDice$2,4432.00xDice$2,4432.00xMines$1,4331.29xReign of Rome$23.38116.9xReign of Rome$23.38116.9xDice$2,4432.00xDragon Hatch 2$1,58619.20xKorean Platinum Private Blackjack 1$10K2.00xVampy Party$1,6244.14xBaccarat Lobby$1,4002.00xVampy Party$1,2323.14xMines$1,2541.13xOdin's Vault$1,80960.30xxWays Hoarder 2$1,21054.34xOutsourced 2$2,22214.81xDice$2,4432.00xBig Bass Bonanza 1000$1,50845.00x

CS:GO Weapon Case

A case on csgo.net (Standard), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is csgo.net's own item price.

Price
$47.99
Advertised RTP
75.43%
EV $36.20 from 14 items
Observed RTP, 30d
126.48%
85 openings, odds method
Variance
0.8×
of price², per opening
Tail share
27.3%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
58.0%
of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
24 hours
24 openings · below min
7 days
77 openings · below min
30 days
85 openings · below min
since tracking started
85 openings · below min
74.5%143.8%213.0%

Small sample. 85 openings and 21.9 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

Windowsthe test per window

WindowOpeningsObservedDev.Method
24h24176.86%±35.3—odds
7d77134.80%±20.2—odds
30d85126.48%±19.3—odds
All85126.48%±19.3—odds
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values14 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 85 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
ItemOddsValueEV shareObservedExpectedHot / cold
★ M9 Bayonet | Fade (Factory New)knife · covert1 in 4,987$8170.5%00.0—
AWP | Lightning Strike (Factory New)weapon · covert1 in 1,554$4640.8%10.1—
★ M9 Bayonet | Crimson Web (Field-Tested)knife · covert1 in 1,271$4290.9%10.1—
★ Karambit | Safari Mesh (Field-Tested)knife · covert1 in 705$3441.3%00.1—
★ Bayonet | Slaughter (Minimal Wear)knife · covert1 in 330$2622.2%20.3—
AK-47 | Case Hardened (Field-Tested)weapon · classified1 in 165$2053.4%00.5—
★ Flip Knife | Case Hardened (Field-Tested)knife · Immortal1 in 65$1466.2%21.31.52×
Desert Eagle | Hypnotic (Factory New)weapon · classified1 in 45$1277.8%21.91.05×
Glock-18 | Dragon Tattoo (Factory New)weapon · restricted1 in 12$72.8316.8%67.10.84×
USP-S | Dark Water (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted14.0%$55.1921.3%1011.90.84×
M4A1-S | Dark Water (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted14.7%$53.4921.7%1912.51.52×
SG 553 | Ultraviolet (Field-Tested)weapon · Rare20.9%$11.676.7%1017.70.56×
AUG | Wings (Minimal Wear)weapon · milspec19.0%$10.295.4%1516.20.93×
MP7 | Skulls (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec18.1%$9.634.8%715.40.46×
Values are csgo.net's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgo-net:pf_case_ranges, 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All Latest drops →
USP-S | Dark Water (Field-Tested)weapon · restrictedRico$47.99$55.271.15x
M4A1-S | Dark Water (Field-Tested)weapon · restrictedSEvER$47.99$54.251.13x
SG 553 | Ultraviolet (Field-Tested)weapon · Rarecudimel.lule$47.99$11.730.24x
M4A1-S | Dark Water (Field-Tested)weapon · restrictedcudimel.lule$47.99$54.411.13x
M4A1-S | Dark Water (Field-Tested)weapon · restrictedcudimel.lule$47.99$54.411.13x
M4A1-S | Dark Water (Field-Tested)weapon · restrictedcudimel.lule$47.99$54.411.13x
M4A1-S | Dark Water (Field-Tested)weapon · restrictedPROFITEIRO REI$47.99$54.461.13x
Desert Eagle | Hypnotic (Factory New)weapon · classifiedPROFITEIRO REI$47.99$1272.64x
SG 553 | Ultraviolet (Field-Tested)weapon · RareReserva$47.99$11.750.24x
★ M9 Bayonet | Crimson Web (Field-Tested)knife · covertReserva$47.99$4339.02x

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 75.43%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

CapturedPriceAdvertisedItems
11 Nov, 08:54 UTC$47.9975.43%14
11 Nov, 02:44 UTC$47.9975.26%14
10 Nov, 20:44 UTC$47.9975.24%14
10 Nov, 14:44 UTC$47.9975.53%14
10 Nov, 08:34 UTC$47.9975.86%14
10 Nov, 02:24 UTC$47.9975.87%14
9 Nov, 20:24 UTC$47.9975.85%14
9 Nov, 14:24 UTC$47.9975.91%14
9 Nov, 08:24 UTC$47.9975.98%14
9 Nov, 02:14 UTC$47.9976.40%14
9 Nov, 01:55 UTC$47.9976.38%14
9 Nov, 00:05 UTC$47.9976.37%14
8 Nov, 18:22 UTC$47.9976.40%14
8 Nov, 12:22 UTC$47.9976.39%14
8 Nov, 06:22 UTC$47.9976.40%14
8 Nov, 00:02 UTC$47.9976.41%14
7 Nov, 18:02 UTC$47.9976.37%14
7 Nov, 12:02 UTC$47.9976.38%14
7 Nov, 06:02 UTC$47.9976.40%14
7 Nov, 00:02 UTC$47.9976.40%14
6 Nov, 18:02 UTC$47.9976.33%14
6 Nov, 11:41 UTC$47.9976.46%14
6 Nov, 05:21 UTC$47.9976.80%14
5 Nov, 22:51 UTC$47.9976.81%14
5 Nov, 16:41 UTC$47.9976.71%14
5 Nov, 10:41 UTC$47.9976.41%14
5 Nov, 04:41 UTC$47.9976.50%14
4 Nov, 22:41 UTC$47.9976.49%14
4 Nov, 16:31 UTC$47.9976.50%14
4 Nov, 14:19 UTC$47.9976.47%14
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 0.6%classified 2.8%Immortal 1.5%restricted 37.0%Rare 20.9%milspec 19.0%mil spec 18.1%best hit —