CS:GO Weapon Case 3

A case on csgo.net (Standard), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is csgo.net's own item price.

Price

$7.49

Advertised RTP

75.84%

EV $5.68 from 16 items

Observed RTP, 30d

88.88%

276 openings, odds method

Variance

0.9×

of price², per opening

Tail share

39.6%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

91.1%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

29 openings · below min

7 days

89.33%±11.34258 openings

30 days

88.88%±10.97276 openings

since tracking started

88.88%±10.97276 openings

58.0%92.0%126.0%

Outside band, 30 days. Advertised 76.54% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (77.91% – 99.85%, 276 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	29	92.02%±33.6	—	odds
7d	258	89.33%±11.3	+2.2σ	odds
30d	276	88.88%±11.0	+2.2σ	odds
All	276	88.88%±11.0	+2.2σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values16 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 277 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ M9 Bayonet \| Crimson Web (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 9,829	$429	0.8%	0	0.0	—
★ Karambit \| Boreal Forest (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 9,741	$372	0.7%	0	0.0	—
★ Gut Knife \| Slaughter (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 4,368	$102	0.4%	0	0.1	—
★ Flip Knife \| Safari Mesh (Field-Tested)knife · covert knife	1 in 3,876	$94.97	0.4%	0	0.1	—
CZ75-Auto \| Victoria (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 2,345	$74.39	0.6%	0	0.1	—
P250 \| Undertow (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 117	$23.98	3.6%	7	2.4	2.96×
CZ75-Auto \| The Fuschia Is Now (Field-Tested)weapon · Classified	1 in 35	$14.72	7.4%	8	7.9	1.01×
Five-SeveN \| Copper Galaxy (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 20	$11.19	10.0%	21	14.0	1.50×
Tec-9 \| Titanium Bit (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 10	$7.10	12.3%	40	27.2	1.47×
CZ75-Auto \| Tread Plate (Minimal Wear)weapon · #8847ff	10.1%	$6.92	12.3%	43	28.0	1.54×
USP-S \| Stainless (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff	10.8%	$6.41	12.2%	28	29.9	0.94×
Desert Eagle \| Heirloom (Field-Tested)weapon · violet	11.3%	$6.09	12.1%	40	31.2	1.28×
P2000 \| Red FragCam (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec	12.9%	$3.81	8.7%	16	35.8	0.45×
Dual Berettas \| Panther (Field-Tested)weapon · Mil Spec Grade	12.3%	$3.06	6.6%	19	34.0	0.56×
Glock-18 \| Blue Fissure (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec	12.1%	$2.96	6.3%	25	33.6	0.74×
CZ75-Auto \| Crimson Web (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff	11.8%	$2.76	5.7%	19	32.6	0.58×

Values are csgo.net's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgo-net:pf_case_ranges, 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

Desert Eagle | Heirloom (Field-Tested)weapon · violetRico$7.49$6.070.81x1h

Five-SeveN | Copper Galaxy (Minimal Wear)weapon · restrictedRico$7.49$10.741.43x1h

Desert Eagle | Heirloom (Field-Tested)weapon · violetRico$7.49$6.070.81x1h

Tec-9 | Titanium Bit (Minimal Wear)weapon · restrictedRico$7.49$7.100.95x1h

Tec-9 | Titanium Bit (Minimal Wear)weapon · restrictedSEvER$7.49$7.100.95x7h

P250 | Undertow (Minimal Wear)weapon · classifiedMindFree$7.49$24.323.25x15h

Glock-18 | Blue Fissure (Field-Tested)weapon · mil specMindFree$7.49$2.960.40x15h

Five-SeveN | Copper Galaxy (Minimal Wear)weapon · restrictedMagellanX$7.49$11.141.49x15h

Desert Eagle | Heirloom (Field-Tested)weapon · violetM1$7.49$6.050.81x16h

Tec-9 | Titanium Bit (Minimal Wear)weapon · restrictedM1$7.49$7.240.97x16h

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 75.84%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
11 Nov, 08:54 UTC	$7.49	75.84%	16
11 Nov, 02:44 UTC	$7.49	75.66%	16
10 Nov, 20:44 UTC	$7.49	75.63%	16
10 Nov, 14:44 UTC	$7.49	75.93%	15
10 Nov, 08:34 UTC	$7.49	76.29%	15
10 Nov, 02:24 UTC	$7.49	76.27%	16
9 Nov, 20:24 UTC	$7.49	76.25%	16
9 Nov, 14:24 UTC	$7.49	76.31%	16
9 Nov, 08:24 UTC	$7.49	76.39%	16
9 Nov, 02:14 UTC	$7.49	76.82%	16
9 Nov, 01:55 UTC	$7.49	76.78%	16
9 Nov, 00:05 UTC	$7.49	76.77%	16
8 Nov, 18:22 UTC	$7.49	76.82%	16
8 Nov, 12:22 UTC	$7.49	76.80%	16
8 Nov, 06:22 UTC	$7.49	76.80%	16
8 Nov, 00:02 UTC	$7.49	76.83%	16
7 Nov, 18:02 UTC	$7.49	76.77%	16
7 Nov, 12:02 UTC	$7.49	76.79%	16
7 Nov, 06:02 UTC	$7.49	76.79%	16
7 Nov, 00:02 UTC	$7.49	76.81%	16
6 Nov, 18:02 UTC	$7.49	76.71%	16
6 Nov, 11:41 UTC	$7.49	76.87%	16
6 Nov, 05:21 UTC	$7.49	77.20%	16
5 Nov, 22:51 UTC	$7.49	77.21%	16
5 Nov, 16:41 UTC	$7.49	77.11%	16
5 Nov, 10:41 UTC	$7.49	76.79%	16
5 Nov, 04:41 UTC	$7.49	76.89%	16
4 Nov, 22:41 UTC	$7.49	76.91%	16
4 Nov, 16:31 UTC	$7.49	76.89%	16
4 Nov, 14:19 UTC	$7.49	76.87%	16

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 0.1%covert knife 0.0%classified 0.9%Classified 2.9%restricted 14.9%#8847ff 10.1%#4b69ff 22.6%violet 11.3%mil spec 25.1%Mil Spec Grade 12.3%best hit —