Operation Wildfire Case
A case on csgo.net (Standard), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is csgo.net's own item price.
Price
$1.79
Advertised RTP
74.58%
EV $1.33 from 23 items
Observed RTP, 30d
84.94%
246 openings, odds method
Variance
2.7×
of price², per opening
Tail share
29.5%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
79.9%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values23 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 246 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are csgo.net's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgo-net:pf_case_ranges, 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 74.58%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC | $1.79 | 74.58% | 23 |
| 11 Nov, 02:44 UTC | $1.79 | 74.36% | 23 |
| 10 Nov, 20:44 UTC | $1.79 | 74.30% | 23 |
| 10 Nov, 14:44 UTC | $1.79 | 74.58% | 23 |
| 10 Nov, 08:34 UTC | $1.79 | 74.96% | 22 |
| 10 Nov, 02:24 UTC | $1.79 | 75.07% | 23 |
| 9 Nov, 20:24 UTC | $1.79 | 74.99% | 22 |
| 9 Nov, 14:24 UTC | $1.79 | 75.03% | 22 |
| 9 Nov, 08:24 UTC | $1.79 | 75.04% | 22 |
| 9 Nov, 02:14 UTC | $1.79 | 75.51% | 22 |
| 9 Nov, 01:55 UTC | $1.79 | 75.42% | 22 |
| 9 Nov, 00:05 UTC | $1.79 | 75.48% | 22 |
| 8 Nov, 18:22 UTC | $1.79 | 75.48% | 22 |
| 8 Nov, 12:22 UTC | $1.79 | 75.42% | 21 |
| 8 Nov, 06:22 UTC | $1.79 | 75.46% | 21 |
| 8 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $1.79 | 75.61% | 22 |
| 7 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $1.79 | 75.48% | 22 |
| 7 Nov, 12:02 UTC | $1.79 | 75.41% | 22 |
| 7 Nov, 06:02 UTC | $1.79 | 75.59% | 23 |
| 7 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $1.79 | 75.52% | 22 |
| 6 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $1.79 | 75.48% | 22 |
| 6 Nov, 11:41 UTC | $1.79 | 75.56% | 22 |
| 6 Nov, 05:21 UTC | $1.79 | 75.81% | 22 |
| 5 Nov, 22:51 UTC | $1.79 | 75.84% | 22 |
| 5 Nov, 16:41 UTC | $1.79 | 75.74% | 22 |
| 5 Nov, 10:41 UTC | $1.79 | 75.46% | 22 |
| 5 Nov, 04:41 UTC | $1.79 | 75.45% | 22 |
| 4 Nov, 22:41 UTC | $1.79 | 75.58% | 22 |
| 4 Nov, 16:31 UTC | $1.79 | 75.53% | 23 |
| 4 Nov, 14:19 UTC | $1.79 | 75.54% | 23 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 0.1%covert knife 0.0%gold 0.0%classified 0.3%restricted 21.4%#8847ff 7.7%violet 11.7%#4b69ff 29.0%mil spec 15.0%milspec 14.9%best hit —