Winter Offensive Weapon Case

A case on csgo.net (Standard), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is csgo.net's own item price.

Price

$4.79

Advertised RTP

75.37%

EV $3.61 from 13 items

Observed RTP, 30d

83.60%

69 openings, odds method

Variance

2.9×

of price², per opening

Tail share

44.5%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

72.9%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

6 openings · below min

7 days

62 openings · below min

30 days

69 openings · below min

since tracking started

69 openings · below min

-0.5%128.8%258.0%

Small sample. 69 openings and 24.7 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	6	122.30%±135.2	—	odds
7d	62	83.06%±41.8	—	odds
30d	69	83.60%±40.3	—	odds
All	69	83.60%±40.3	—	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values13 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 69 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ Karambit \| Case Hardened (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 9,992	$720	2.0%	0	0.0	—
★ M9 Bayonet \| Safari Mesh (Field-Tested)knife · sunny	1 in 9,835	$260	0.7%	0	0.0	—
M4A4 \| Asiimov (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 8,177	$110	0.4%	0	0.0	—
★ Gut Knife \| Case Hardened (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 7,772	$101	0.4%	0	0.0	—
AWP \| Redline (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 1,225	$34.37	0.8%	0	0.1	—
M4A1-S \| Guardian (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 371	$22.19	1.7%	0	0.2	—
P250 \| Mehndi (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 134	$15.46	3.2%	1	0.5	—
FAMAS \| Pulse (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical	1 in 24	$8.04	9.4%	0	2.9	0.00×
MP9 \| Rose Iron (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 11	$5.60	14.7%	9	6.6	1.37×
Nova \| Rising Skull (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	12.3%	$4.90	16.6%	13	8.5	1.54×
Dual Berettas \| Marina (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	17.4%	$3.94	19.0%	17	12.0	1.42×
Five-SeveN \| Kami (Field-Tested)weapon · Rare	27.1%	$2.42	18.2%	10	18.7	0.53×
Galil AR \| Sandstorm (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec	28.4%	$1.65	13.0%	9	19.6	0.46×

Values are csgo.net's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgo-net:pf_case_ranges, 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

Five-SeveN | Kami (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil specshelp1k$4.79$2.920.61x16h

Galil AR | Sandstorm (Field-Tested)weapon · mil specshelp1k$4.79$1.730.36x16h

FAMAS | Pulse (Field-Tested)weapon · restrictedBoxi$4.79$8.041.68x19h

Nova | Rising Skull (Field-Tested)weapon · restrictedBoxi$4.79$5.051.05x19h

P250 | Mehndi (Minimal Wear)weapon · classifiedBoxi$4.79$14.903.11x19h

Five-SeveN | Kami (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec_Tivali_$4.79$2.510.52x20h

Dual Berettas | Marina (Field-Tested)weapon · restrictedtrapaz01d$4.79$3.930.82x1d

Five-SeveN | Kami (Field-Tested)weapon · Rareahmed mi allaah$4.79$2.560.53x2d

MP9 | Rose Iron (Minimal Wear)weapon · restrictedTusk$4.79$5.751.20x3d

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 75.37%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
11 Nov, 08:54 UTC	$4.79	75.37%	13
11 Nov, 02:44 UTC	$4.79	75.19%	13
10 Nov, 20:44 UTC	$4.79	75.19%	13
10 Nov, 14:44 UTC	$4.79	75.50%	13
10 Nov, 08:34 UTC	$4.79	75.79%	12
10 Nov, 02:24 UTC	$4.79	75.77%	12
9 Nov, 20:24 UTC	$4.79	75.82%	12
9 Nov, 14:24 UTC	$4.79	75.89%	12
9 Nov, 08:24 UTC	$4.79	75.97%	12
9 Nov, 02:14 UTC	$4.79	76.40%	12
9 Nov, 01:55 UTC	$4.79	76.38%	12
9 Nov, 00:05 UTC	$4.79	76.37%	12
8 Nov, 18:22 UTC	$4.79	76.41%	12
8 Nov, 12:22 UTC	$4.79	76.37%	12
8 Nov, 06:22 UTC	$4.79	76.32%	12
8 Nov, 00:02 UTC	$4.79	76.29%	12
7 Nov, 18:02 UTC	$4.79	76.30%	12
7 Nov, 12:02 UTC	$4.79	76.35%	12
7 Nov, 06:02 UTC	$4.79	76.33%	12
7 Nov, 00:02 UTC	$4.79	76.42%	12
6 Nov, 18:02 UTC	$4.79	76.27%	12
6 Nov, 11:41 UTC	$4.79	76.47%	12
6 Nov, 05:21 UTC	$4.79	76.72%	13
5 Nov, 22:51 UTC	$4.79	76.79%	13
5 Nov, 16:41 UTC	$4.79	76.66%	13
5 Nov, 10:41 UTC	$4.79	76.39%	13
5 Nov, 04:41 UTC	$4.79	76.46%	13
4 Nov, 22:41 UTC	$4.79	76.45%	12
4 Nov, 16:31 UTC	$4.79	76.48%	12
4 Nov, 14:19 UTC	$4.79	76.41%	13

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 0.0%sunny 0.0%classified 1.1%Mythical 4.2%restricted 39.1%Rare 27.1%mil spec 28.4%best hit —