Зелье ведьмы
A case on csgo.net, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is csgo.net's own item price.
Price
$0.10
Advertised RTP
74.55%
EV $0.07 from 30 items
Observed RTP, 30d
86.58%
567K openings, odds method
Variance
0.6×
of price², per opening
Tail share
32.8%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
89.3%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Outside band, 30 days. Advertised 75.42% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (86.38% – 86.78%, 566,540 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values30 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 567K openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are csgo.net's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgo-net:pf_case_ranges, 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 74.55%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC | $0.10 | 74.55% | 30 |
| 11 Nov, 02:44 UTC | $0.10 | 74.28% | 30 |
| 10 Nov, 20:44 UTC | $0.10 | 74.09% | 30 |
| 10 Nov, 14:44 UTC | $0.10 | 74.56% | 30 |
| 10 Nov, 08:34 UTC | $0.10 | 74.93% | 30 |
| 10 Nov, 02:24 UTC | $0.10 | 74.98% | 30 |
| 9 Nov, 20:24 UTC | $0.10 | 74.79% | 30 |
| 9 Nov, 14:24 UTC | $0.10 | 74.83% | 30 |
| 9 Nov, 08:24 UTC | $0.10 | 74.96% | 30 |
| 9 Nov, 02:14 UTC | $0.10 | 75.57% | 30 |
| 9 Nov, 01:55 UTC | $0.10 | 75.52% | 30 |
| 9 Nov, 00:05 UTC | $0.10 | 75.45% | 30 |
| 8 Nov, 18:22 UTC | $0.10 | 75.63% | 30 |
| 8 Nov, 12:22 UTC | $0.10 | 75.47% | 29 |
| 8 Nov, 06:22 UTC | $0.10 | 75.43% | 30 |
| 8 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $0.10 | 75.54% | 30 |
| 7 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $0.10 | 75.47% | 30 |
| 7 Nov, 12:02 UTC | $0.10 | 75.44% | 30 |
| 7 Nov, 06:02 UTC | $0.10 | 75.43% | 30 |
| 7 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $0.10 | 75.58% | 29 |
| 6 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $0.10 | 75.41% | 30 |
| 6 Nov, 11:41 UTC | $0.10 | 75.66% | 30 |
| 6 Nov, 05:21 UTC | $0.10 | 75.84% | 29 |
| 5 Nov, 22:51 UTC | $0.10 | 75.78% | 30 |
| 5 Nov, 16:41 UTC | $0.10 | 75.84% | 30 |
| 5 Nov, 10:41 UTC | $0.10 | 75.32% | 29 |
| 5 Nov, 04:41 UTC | $0.10 | 75.55% | 30 |
| 4 Nov, 22:41 UTC | $0.10 | 75.72% | 30 |
| 4 Nov, 16:31 UTC | $0.10 | 75.48% | 30 |
| 4 Nov, 14:19 UTC | $0.10 | 75.58% | 30 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedclassified 0.0%#8847ff 0.2%pink 0.0%restricted 0.1%Industrial Grade 0.0%violet 0.0%Mythical 0.0%uncommon 0.2%Rare 5.0%Uncommon 1.5%blue 10.9%#4b69ff 29.3%milspec 26.8%industrial 25.9%best hit —