11.11 mining
A case on csgo.net (Battle), first seen 10 Nov 2026. Every value is csgo.net's own item price.
Price
$0.15
Advertised RTP
66.83%
EV $0.10 from 6 items
Observed RTP, 30d
16002.41%
97 openings, odds method
Variance
108.6×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 261
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
99.6%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 97 openings and 0.4 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values6 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 153 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USP-S | Kill Confirmed (Field-Tested)weapon · covert | 1 in 7,001 | $60.93 | 8.7% | 3 | 0.0 | — |
| AWP | Queen's Gambit (Field-Tested)weapon · rare | 1 in 5,418 | $48.57 | 8.9% | 7 | 0.0 | — |
| Desert Eagle | Code Red (Field-Tested)weapon · covert | 1 in 3,660 | $38.24 | 10.4% | 8 | 0.0 | — |
| AK-47 | Redline (Field-Tested)weapon · classified | 1 in 1,250 | $24.00 | 19.2% | 29 | 0.1 | — |
| UMP-45 | Blaze (Factory New)weapon · mil spec | 1 in 412 | $16.07 | 38.9% | 50 | 0.4 | — |
| MP5-SD | Picnic (Field-Tested)weapon · Uncommon | 99.6% | $0.01 | 13.9% | 0 | 152.4 | 0.00× |
Values are csgo.net's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgo-net:pf_case_ranges, 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 66.83%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC | $0.15 | 66.83% | 6 |
| 11 Nov, 02:44 UTC | $0.15 | 66.65% | 6 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 0.0%rare 0.0%classified 0.1%mil spec 0.2%Uncommon 99.6%best hit $65.53 (436.9x)