XRP
A case on csgo.net (Battle), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is csgo.net's own item price.
Price
$14.99
Advertised RTP
76.68%
EV $11.49 from 2 items
Observed RTP, 30d
133.20%
214 openings, odds method
Variance
5.6×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 11
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
90.7%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Outside band, 30 days. Advertised 77.43% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (100.88% – 165.53%, 214 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values2 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 214 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWP | Graphite (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified | 1 in 11 | $122 | 99.1% | 33 | 20.0 | 1.65× |
| Charm | Pocket AWPcharm · Rare | 90.7% | $0.11 | 0.9% | 180 | 194.0 | 0.93× |
Values are csgo.net's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgo-net:pf_case_ranges, 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 76.68%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC | $14.99 | 76.68% | 2 |
| 11 Nov, 02:44 UTC | $14.99 | 76.50% | 2 |
| 10 Nov, 20:44 UTC | $14.99 | 76.48% | 2 |
| 10 Nov, 14:44 UTC | $14.99 | 76.78% | 2 |
| 10 Nov, 08:34 UTC | $14.99 | 77.12% | 2 |
| 10 Nov, 02:24 UTC | $14.99 | 77.12% | 2 |
| 9 Nov, 20:24 UTC | $14.99 | 77.10% | 2 |
| 9 Nov, 14:24 UTC | $14.99 | 77.17% | 2 |
| 9 Nov, 08:24 UTC | $14.99 | 77.23% | 2 |
| 9 Nov, 02:14 UTC | $14.99 | 77.67% | 2 |
| 9 Nov, 01:55 UTC | $14.99 | 77.64% | 2 |
| 9 Nov, 00:05 UTC | $14.99 | 77.63% | 2 |
| 8 Nov, 18:22 UTC | $14.99 | 77.65% | 2 |
| 8 Nov, 12:22 UTC | $14.99 | 77.66% | 2 |
| 8 Nov, 06:22 UTC | $14.99 | 77.66% | 2 |
| 8 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $14.99 | 77.67% | 2 |
| 7 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $14.99 | 77.64% | 2 |
| 7 Nov, 12:02 UTC | $14.99 | 77.65% | 2 |
| 7 Nov, 06:02 UTC | $14.99 | 77.66% | 2 |
| 7 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $14.99 | 77.66% | 2 |
| 6 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $14.99 | 77.59% | 2 |
| 6 Nov, 11:41 UTC | $14.99 | 77.72% | 2 |
| 6 Nov, 05:21 UTC | $14.99 | 78.07% | 2 |
| 5 Nov, 22:51 UTC | $14.99 | 78.08% | 2 |
| 5 Nov, 16:41 UTC | $14.99 | 77.98% | 2 |
| 5 Nov, 10:41 UTC | $14.99 | 77.67% | 2 |
| 5 Nov, 04:41 UTC | $14.99 | 77.77% | 2 |
| 4 Nov, 22:41 UTC | $14.99 | 77.75% | 2 |
| 4 Nov, 16:31 UTC | $14.99 | 77.76% | 2 |
| 4 Nov, 14:19 UTC | $14.99 | 77.74% | 2 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedclassified 9.3%Rare 90.7%best hit —