zoneR

A case on csgo.net (Blogger), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is csgo.net's own item price.

Price

$1.39

Advertised RTP

73.06%

EV $1.02 from 39 items

Observed RTP, 30d

74.67%

2,068 openings, odds method

Variance

0.6×

of price², per opening

Tail share

36.1%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

92.5%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

74.18%±10.95208 openings

7 days

74.37%±3.921,677 openings

30 days

74.67%±3.532,068 openings

since tracking started

74.67%±3.532,068 openings

62.5%74.3%86.0%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	208	74.18%±11.0	+0.2σ	odds
7d	1,677	74.37%±3.92	+0.3σ	odds
30d	2,068	74.67%±3.53	+0.5σ	odds
All	2,068	74.67%±3.53	+0.5σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values39 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 2,068 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
M4A4 \| Buzz Kill (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 199,593	$243	0.1%	0	0.0	—
M4A1-S \| Cyrex (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 198,826	$171	0.1%	0	0.0	—
P90 \| Asiimov (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 198,714	$165	0.1%	0	0.0	—
AK-47 \| Bloodsport (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 196,392	$117	0.1%	0	0.0	—
FAMAS \| Roll Cage (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 194,303	$99.96	0.1%	0	0.0	—
AK-47 \| The Empress (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 194,183	$99.26	0.1%	0	0.0	—
AWP \| Asiimov (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 193,189	$94.01	0.0%	0	0.0	—
★ Navaja Knife \| Slaughter (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 187,160	$75.30	0.0%	0	0.0	—
M4A4 \| Hellfire (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 185,695	$72.45	0.0%	0	0.0	—
P90 \| Death by Kitty (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 184,713	$70.73	0.0%	0	0.0	—
USP-S \| Kill Confirmed (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 176,580	$60.44	0.0%	0	0.0	—
AK-47 \| Red Laminate (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 157,723	$47.81	0.0%	0	0.0	—
★ Broken Fang Gloves \| Needle Point (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 145,214	$42.66	0.0%	0	0.0	—
Desert Eagle \| Code Red (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 136,917	$39.91	0.0%	0	0.0	—
AK-47 \| Legion of Anubis (Minimal Wear)weapon · Ancient	1 in 104,798	$31.82	0.0%	0	0.0	—
MP7 \| Bloodsport (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 96,478	$30.11	0.0%	0	0.0	—
AK-47 \| Redline (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 66,415	$24.41	0.0%	0	0.0	—
M4A1-S \| Guardian (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 59,900	$23.22	0.0%	0	0.0	—
FAMAS \| Djinn (Minimal Wear)weapon · #d32ee6	1 in 11,924	$12.28	0.1%	0	0.2	—
P250 \| Muertos (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 11,545	$12.14	0.1%	0	0.2	—
Desert Eagle \| Crimson Web (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 7,002	$10.19	0.1%	0	0.3	—
XM1014 \| Tranquility (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 4,018	$8.42	0.2%	1	0.5	—
MP9 \| Mount Fuji (Field-Tested)weapon · violet	1 in 659	$4.56	0.7%	4	3.1	1.28×
AWP \| Mortis (Minimal Wear)weapon · Legendary	1 in 522	$4.21	0.8%	0	4.0	0.00×
P90 \| Nostalgia (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 346	$3.67	1.0%	8	6.0	1.34×
USP-S \| Cortex (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 310	$3.53	1.1%	9	6.7	1.35×
Glock-18 \| Vogue (Field-Tested)weapon · Legendary	1 in 292	$3.46	1.2%	9	7.1	1.27×
AWP \| Duality (Field-Tested)weapon · pink	1 in 192	$3.00	1.5%	20	10.8	1.86×
AWP \| Phobos (Minimal Wear)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 70	$2.11	3.0%	39	29.6	1.32×
AK-47 \| Steel Delta (Field-Tested)weapon · Rare	1 in 57	$1.96	3.4%	36	36.3	0.99×
AK-47 \| Elite Build (Field-Tested)weapon · Rare	1 in 41	$1.74	4.2%	32	50.6	0.63×
AUG \| Random Access (Well-Worn)weapon · Restricted	1 in 20	$1.32	6.6%	8	104.9	0.08×
AWP \| Pit Viper (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 15	$1.18	8.0%	129	141.8	0.91×
AUG \| Aristocrat (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 14	$1.14	8.3%	183	152.6	1.20×
SSG 08 \| Rapid Transit (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 11	$1.04	9.5%	219	192.6	1.14×
MP9 \| Ruby Poison Dart (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 10	$1.02	9.6%	205	198.5	1.03×
USP-S \| Ticket to Hell (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical	13.9%	$0.87	11.9%	438	288.4	1.52×
AWP \| Acheron (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff	13.7%	$0.87	11.7%	70	283.2	0.25×
USP-S \| Torque (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec	26.6%	$0.61	16.0%	297	550.6	0.54×

Values are csgo.net's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgo-net:pf_case_ranges, 11 Nov, 14:55 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

P90 | Nostalgia (Field-Tested)weapon · classifiedbaby bon$1.39$3.672.64x19m

USP-S | Torque (Field-Tested)weapon · mil specshpingaleti lopnuli$1.39$0.610.44x24m

MP9 | Ruby Poison Dart (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted☯ASURA☯$1.39$1.020.73x36m

AUG | Aristocrat (Field-Tested)weapon · restricteddollars$1.39$1.140.82x38m

MP9 | Ruby Poison Dart (Field-Tested)weapon · restricteddollars$1.39$1.020.73x38m

AWP | Pit Viper (Field-Tested)weapon · restricteddollars$1.39$1.180.85x38m

USP-S | Ticket to Hell (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythicaldollars$1.39$0.870.63x38m

USP-S | Cortex (Field-Tested)weapon · classifiedJustFortYEighT$1.39$3.532.54x1h

SSG 08 | Rapid Transit (Field-Tested)weapon · restrictedJustFortYEighT$1.39$1.040.75x1h

USP-S | Torque (Field-Tested)weapon · mil specTrace$1.39$0.610.44x1h

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 73.06%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
11 Nov, 14:55 UTC	$1.39	73.06%	39
11 Nov, 08:54 UTC	$1.39	72.82%	39
11 Nov, 02:44 UTC	$1.39	72.80%	39
10 Nov, 20:44 UTC	$1.39	72.76%	39
10 Nov, 14:44 UTC	$1.39	73.16%	39
10 Nov, 08:34 UTC	$1.39	73.28%	39
10 Nov, 02:24 UTC	$1.39	73.41%	39
9 Nov, 20:24 UTC	$1.39	73.44%	39
9 Nov, 14:24 UTC	$1.39	73.39%	39
9 Nov, 08:24 UTC	$1.39	73.36%	40
9 Nov, 02:14 UTC	$1.39	73.80%	40
9 Nov, 01:55 UTC	$1.39	73.75%	40
9 Nov, 00:05 UTC	$1.39	73.86%	40
8 Nov, 18:22 UTC	$1.39	73.79%	39
8 Nov, 12:22 UTC	$1.39	73.82%	39
8 Nov, 06:22 UTC	$1.39	73.90%	39
8 Nov, 00:02 UTC	$1.39	73.98%	39
7 Nov, 18:02 UTC	$1.39	73.75%	39
7 Nov, 12:02 UTC	$1.39	73.98%	39
7 Nov, 06:02 UTC	$1.39	73.93%	39
7 Nov, 00:02 UTC	$1.39	73.89%	39
6 Nov, 18:02 UTC	$1.39	73.86%	39
6 Nov, 11:41 UTC	$1.39	73.88%	39
6 Nov, 05:21 UTC	$1.39	74.27%	39
5 Nov, 22:51 UTC	$1.39	74.17%	39
5 Nov, 16:41 UTC	$1.39	74.17%	40
5 Nov, 10:41 UTC	$1.39	73.92%	39
5 Nov, 04:41 UTC	$1.39	73.98%	39
4 Nov, 22:41 UTC	$1.39	73.94%	39
4 Nov, 16:31 UTC	$1.39	73.95%	39

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 0.0%classified 0.6%extraordinary 0.0%Ancient 0.0%#d32ee6 0.0%restricted 33.2%violet 0.2%Legendary 0.5%pink 0.5%#8847ff 1.4%Rare 4.2%Restricted 5.1%Mythical 13.9%#4b69ff 13.7%mil spec 26.6%best hit —