zorlaKOKA
A case on csgo.net (Blogger), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is csgo.net's own item price.
Price
$1.09
Advertised RTP
64.25%
EV $0.70 from 12 items
Observed RTP, 30d
441.38%
231 openings, odds method
Variance
37.8×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 86
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
98.8%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 231 openings and 2.9 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values12 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 231 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ Talon Knife | Crimson Web (Field-Tested)knife · covert | 1 in 8,588 | $318 | 5.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| AK-47 | Bloodsport (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert | 1 in 2,372 | $118 | 7.1% | 1 | 0.1 | — |
| ★ Gut Knife | Slaughter (Minimal Wear)knife · covert | 1 in 1,731 | $103 | 8.5% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| ★ Sport Gloves | Bronze Morph (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary | 1 in 565 | $68.07 | 17.2% | 2 | 0.4 | — |
| Desert Eagle | Code Red (Field-Tested)weapon · covert | 1 in 115 | $39.21 | 48.8% | 17 | 2.0 | 8.45× |
| Glock-18 | Death Rattle (Minimal Wear)weapon · industrial | 29.3% | $0.15 | 6.4% | 0 | 67.6 | 0.00× |
| P2000 | Granite Marbleized (Field-Tested)weapon · industrial | 15.7% | $0.08 | 1.8% | 0 | 36.4 | 0.00× |
| Dual Berettas | Stained (Field-Tested)weapon · industrial | 14.8% | $0.08 | 1.6% | 0 | 34.1 | 0.00× |
| Desert Eagle | Mudder (Field-Tested)weapon · industrial | 13.3% | $0.07 | 1.3% | 0 | 30.6 | 0.00× |
| Charm | Backsplashcharm · #4b69ff | 13.1% | $0.07 | 1.3% | 208 | 30.2 | 6.89× |
| MP5-SD | Savannah Halftone (Field-Tested)weapon · industrial | 1 in 10 | $0.05 | 0.7% | 0 | 22.2 | 0.00× |
| P2000 | Marsh (Field-Tested)weapon · #5e98d9 | 1 in 32 | $0.02 | 0.1% | 0 | 7.2 | 0.00× |
Values are csgo.net's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgo-net:pf_case_ranges, 12 Nov, 06:45 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 64.25%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 12 Nov, 06:45 UTC | $1.09 | 64.25% | 12 |
| 12 Nov, 00:45 UTC | $1.09 | 64.22% | 12 |
| 11 Nov, 14:55 UTC | $1.09 | 64.47% | 12 |
| 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC | $1.09 | 64.32% | 12 |
| 11 Nov, 02:44 UTC | $1.09 | 64.16% | 12 |
| 10 Nov, 20:44 UTC | $1.09 | 64.14% | 12 |
| 10 Nov, 14:44 UTC | $1.09 | 64.40% | 12 |
| 10 Nov, 08:34 UTC | $1.09 | 64.69% | 12 |
| 10 Nov, 02:24 UTC | $1.09 | 64.71% | 12 |
| 9 Nov, 20:24 UTC | $1.09 | 64.67% | 12 |
| 9 Nov, 14:24 UTC | $1.09 | 64.73% | 12 |
| 9 Nov, 08:24 UTC | $1.09 | 64.79% | 12 |
| 9 Nov, 02:14 UTC | $1.09 | 65.15% | 12 |
| 9 Nov, 01:55 UTC | $1.09 | 65.10% | 12 |
| 9 Nov, 00:05 UTC | $1.09 | 65.09% | 12 |
| 8 Nov, 18:22 UTC | $1.09 | 65.14% | 12 |
| 8 Nov, 12:22 UTC | $1.09 | 65.13% | 12 |
| 8 Nov, 06:22 UTC | $1.09 | 65.14% | 12 |
| 8 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $1.09 | 65.15% | 12 |
| 7 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $1.09 | 65.14% | 12 |
| 7 Nov, 12:02 UTC | $1.09 | 65.14% | 12 |
| 7 Nov, 06:02 UTC | $1.09 | 65.15% | 12 |
| 7 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $1.09 | 65.14% | 12 |
| 6 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $1.09 | 65.07% | 12 |
| 6 Nov, 11:41 UTC | $1.09 | 65.20% | 12 |
| 6 Nov, 05:21 UTC | $1.09 | 65.49% | 12 |
| 5 Nov, 22:51 UTC | $1.09 | 65.48% | 12 |
| 5 Nov, 16:41 UTC | $1.09 | 65.40% | 12 |
| 5 Nov, 10:41 UTC | $1.09 | 65.16% | 12 |
| 5 Nov, 04:41 UTC | $1.09 | 65.21% | 12 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 1.0%extraordinary 0.2%industrial 82.6%#4b69ff 13.1%#5e98d9 3.1%best hit $113 (104.1x)