10% Knife

A case on CSGOBig, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGOBig's own item price converted from csgobig coin at the rate on the site page.

Price

$20.00

20 CSGOBIG_COIN

Advertised RTP

90.00%

EV $18.00 from 20 items

Observed RTP, 30d

54.16%

149 openings, odds method

Variance

8.5×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 14

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

81.8%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

22 openings · below min

7 days

57.97%±49.49133 openings

30 days

54.16%±46.76149 openings

since tracking started

54.16%±46.76149 openings

-0.5%87.0%174.5%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	22	52.37%±121.7	—	odds
7d	133	57.97%±49.5	−1.3σ	odds
30d	149	54.16%±46.8	−1.5σ	odds
All	149	54.16%±46.8	−1.5σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values20 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 149 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ Karambit \| Lore (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 10,000	$2,500 2,500 CSGOBIG_COIN	1.4%	0	0.0	—
★ StatTrak™ Karambit \| Autotronic (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · knifes	1 in 10,000	$2,200 2,200 CSGOBIG_COIN	1.2%	0	0.0	—
★ StatTrak™ Flip Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 500	$442 442 CSGOBIG_COIN	4.9%	0	0.3	—
★ StatTrak™ Paracord Knife \| Slaughter (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 500	$439 439 CSGOBIG_COIN	4.9%	0	0.3	—
★ Bowie Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear)knife · #EB4B4B	1 in 159	$330 330 CSGOBIG_COIN	11.5%	0	0.9	—
★ Falchion Knife \| Freehand (Field-Tested)knife · gold	1 in 69	$130 130 CSGOBIG_COIN	10.5%	2	2.2	0.93×
★ Navaja Knife \| Doppler (Factory New)knife · Covert	1 in 67	$126 126 CSGOBIG_COIN	10.5%	1	2.2	0.45×
★ Falchion Knife \| Black Laminate (Field-Tested)knife · covert knife	1 in 33	$115 115 CSGOBIG_COIN	19.2%	3	4.5	0.67×
★ Navaja Knife \| Night Stripe (Field-Tested)knife · Immortal	1 in 33	$72.00 72 CSGOBIG_COIN	12.0%	3	4.5	0.67×
StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Spider Lily (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 18	$37.59 37.59 CSGOBIG_COIN	11.4%	8	8.1	0.98×
StatTrak™ MP9 \| Hydra (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 36	$31.34 31.34 CSGOBIG_COIN	4.8%	5	4.1	1.22×
Sticker \| G2 Esports \| Cologne 2016sticker · #4B69FF	1 in 12	$5.71 5.71 CSGOBIG_COIN	2.6%	13	12.2	1.07×
StatTrak™ Five-SeveN \| Fowl Play (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classified	13.6%	$4.11 4.11 CSGOBIG_COIN	3.1%	20	20.3	0.99×
R8 Revolver \| Crazy 8 (Well-Worn)weapon · violet	1 in 15	$1.58 1.58 CSGOBIG_COIN	0.6%	8	10.2	0.79×
StatTrak™ Dual Berettas \| Royal Consorts (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · #8847FF	10.9%	$0.98 0.98 CSGOBIG_COIN	0.6%	16	16.2	0.98×
Sticker \| Snappi (Holo) \| Rio 2022sticker · #D32CE6	1 in 10	$0.53 0.53 CSGOBIG_COIN	0.3%	13	14.2	0.91×
MAC-10 \| Rangeen (Minimal Wear)weapon · milspec	15.0%	$0.36 0.36 CSGOBIG_COIN	0.3%	27	22.3	1.21×
Souvenir CZ75-Auto \| Silver (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · Industrial Grade	12.3%	$0.35 0.35 CSGOBIG_COIN	0.2%	22	18.3	1.20×
CZ75-Auto \| Jungle Dashed (Well-Worn)weapon · Consumer Grade	1 in 72	$0.12 0.12 CSGOBIG_COIN	0.0%	3	2.1	1.46×
Sealed Graffiti \| Ninja (Blood Red)graffiti · #B0C3D9	1 in 24	$0.03 0.03 CSGOBIG_COIN	0.0%	5	6.1	0.82×

Values are CSGOBig's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgobig:api/cases/getDetails?id=1, 11 Nov, 06:29 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

MAC-10 | Rangeen (Minimal Wear)weapon · milspec$20.0020 CSGOBIG_COIN$0.360.36 CSGOBIG_COIN0.02x2h

Sticker | Snappi (Holo) | Rio 2022sticker · #D32CE6$20.0020 CSGOBIG_COIN$0.530.53 CSGOBIG_COIN0.03x2h

Sticker | G2 Esports | Cologne 2016sticker · #4B69FF$20.0020 CSGOBIG_COIN$5.715.71 CSGOBIG_COIN0.29x2h

StatTrak™ Dual Berettas | Royal Consorts (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · #8847FF$20.0020 CSGOBIG_COIN$0.980.98 CSGOBIG_COIN0.05x2h

Souvenir CZ75-Auto | Silver (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · Industrial GradeRuffandReady$20.0020 CSGOBIG_COIN$0.350.35 CSGOBIG_COIN0.02x2h

StatTrak™ Dual Berettas | Royal Consorts (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · #8847FF$20.0020 CSGOBIG_COIN$0.980.98 CSGOBIG_COIN0.05x2h

StatTrak™ Five-SeveN | Fowl Play (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classified$20.0020 CSGOBIG_COIN$4.114.11 CSGOBIG_COIN0.21x4h

StatTrak™ Dual Berettas | Royal Consorts (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · #8847FFWigSplitta$20.0020 CSGOBIG_COIN$0.980.98 CSGOBIG_COIN0.05x8h

StatTrak™ Dual Berettas | Royal Consorts (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · #8847FF$20.0020 CSGOBIG_COIN$0.980.98 CSGOBIG_COIN0.05x8h

Souvenir CZ75-Auto | Silver (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · Industrial Grade$20.0020 CSGOBIG_COIN$0.350.35 CSGOBIG_COIN0.02x8h

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
3 Nov, 04:27 UTC	$20.00	90.00%	20

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 0.0%knifes 0.0%covert knife 3.4%#EB4B4B 0.6%gold 1.5%Covert 1.5%Immortal 3.0%restricted 5.5%classified 16.4%#4B69FF 8.2%violet 6.8%#8847FF 10.9%#D32CE6 9.5%milspec 15.0%Industrial Grade 12.3%Consumer Grade 1.4%#B0C3D9 4.1%best hit —