10% Awp

A case on CSGOBig, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGOBig's own item price converted from csgobig coin at the rate on the site page.

Price

$18.00

18 CSGOBIG_COIN

Advertised RTP

90.00%

EV $16.20 from 20 items

Observed RTP, 30d

68.73%

125 openings, odds method

Variance

59.1×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 30

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

90.0%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

16 openings · below min

7 days

111 openings · below min

30 days

125 openings · below min

since tracking started

125 openings · below min

-0.5%192.3%385.0%

Small sample. 125 openings and 4.1 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	16	7.85%±376.7	—	odds
7d	111	75.65%±143.0	—	odds
30d	125	68.73%±134.8	—	odds
All	125	68.73%±134.8	—	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values20 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 125 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
AWP \| Gungnir (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 10,000	$10.5K 10,500 CSGOBIG_COIN	6.5%	0	0.0	—
AWP \| Medusa (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 1,000	$2,700 2,700 CSGOBIG_COIN	16.7%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ AWP \| Asiimov (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 63	$165 165 CSGOBIG_COIN	16.3%	1	2.0	0.50×
StatTrak™ AWP \| Hyper Beast (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 63	$111 111 CSGOBIG_COIN	11.0%	1	2.0	0.50×
StatTrak™ AWP \| Asiimov (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 100	$100 100 CSGOBIG_COIN	6.2%	1	1.3	0.80×
AWP \| Silk Tiger (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 67	$90.00 90 CSGOBIG_COIN	8.3%	2	1.9	1.07×
StatTrak™ AWP \| Wildfire (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 100	$85.00 85 CSGOBIG_COIN	5.2%	1	1.3	0.80×
AWP \| Snake Camo (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec	1 in 31	$70.00 70 CSGOBIG_COIN	13.8%	9	4.0	2.26×
Sticker \| Heroic (Gold) \| Antwerp 2022sticker · #EB4B4B	1 in 11	$6.00 6 CSGOBIG_COIN	3.4%	9	11.5	0.78×
P250 \| Bengal Tiger (Minimal Wear)weapon · Rare	1 in 12	$5.50 5.5 CSGOBIG_COIN	2.7%	11	10.1	1.09×
StatTrak™ P2000 \| Imperial Dragon (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 28	$5.39 5.39 CSGOBIG_COIN	1.2%	5	4.4	1.13×
StatTrak™ Nova \| Ghost Camo (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · #4B69FF	1 in 14	$3.87 3.87 CSGOBIG_COIN	1.7%	12	8.7	1.38×
StatTrak™ MAG-7 \| Justice (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · classified	10.3%	$3.64 3.64 CSGOBIG_COIN	2.3%	19	12.9	1.47×
StatTrak™ MAG-7 \| Justice (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · classified	13.7%	$3.64 3.64 CSGOBIG_COIN	3.1%	19	17.2	1.11×
Sticker \| refrezh (Gold) \| Rio 2022sticker · #EB4B4B	1 in 21	$3.58 3.58 CSGOBIG_COIN	1.0%	1	5.8	0.17×
StatTrak™ CZ75-Auto \| Distressed (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 78	$1.25 1.25 CSGOBIG_COIN	0.1%	2	1.6	1.25×
StatTrak™ Negev \| Man-o'-war (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	11.5%	$0.44 0.44 CSGOBIG_COIN	0.3%	13	14.3	0.91×
M249 \| System Lock (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec	12.6%	$0.27 0.27 CSGOBIG_COIN	0.2%	22	15.7	1.40×
PP-Bizon \| Sand Dashed (Well-Worn)weapon · Consumer	1 in 42	$0.04 0.04 CSGOBIG_COIN	0.0%	2	3.0	0.66×
Souvenir R8 Revolver \| Desert Brush (Battle-Scarred)Souvenir · weapon · #B0C3D9	1 in 17	$0.04 0.04 CSGOBIG_COIN	0.0%	14	7.3	1.93×

Values are CSGOBig's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgobig:api/cases/getDetails?id=10, 11 Nov, 06:29 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

M249 | System Lock (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec$18.0018 CSGOBIG_COIN$0.270.27 CSGOBIG_COIN0.02x24m

StatTrak™ Negev | Man-o'-war (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · milspec$18.0018 CSGOBIG_COIN$0.440.44 CSGOBIG_COIN0.02x24m

StatTrak™ MAG-7 | Justice (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · classifiedWigSplitta$18.0018 CSGOBIG_COIN$3.643.64 CSGOBIG_COIN0.20x8h

StatTrak™ MAG-7 | Justice (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · classified$18.0018 CSGOBIG_COIN$3.643.64 CSGOBIG_COIN0.20x8h

Souvenir R8 Revolver | Desert Brush (Battle-Scarred)Souvenir · weapon · #B0C3D9$18.0018 CSGOBIG_COIN$0.040.04 CSGOBIG_COIN0.00x8h

P250 | Bengal Tiger (Minimal Wear)weapon · Rare$18.0018 CSGOBIG_COIN$5.505.5 CSGOBIG_COIN0.31x8h

Souvenir R8 Revolver | Desert Brush (Battle-Scarred)Souvenir · weapon · #B0C3D9Faith$18.0018 CSGOBIG_COIN$0.040.04 CSGOBIG_COIN0.00x11h

Souvenir R8 Revolver | Desert Brush (Battle-Scarred)Souvenir · weapon · #B0C3D9$18.0018 CSGOBIG_COIN$0.040.04 CSGOBIG_COIN0.00x11h

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
3 Nov, 04:27 UTC	$18.00	90.00%	20

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 5.3%classified 29.1%mil spec 15.8%#EB4B4B 13.9%Rare 8.1%#4B69FF 6.9%milspec 12.7%Consumer 2.4%#B0C3D9 5.8%best hit —