Radiant Obsidian
A case on CSGOBig, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGOBig's own item price converted from csgobig coin at the rate on the site page.
Price
$10,690.00
10,690 CSGOBIG_COIN
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $9,621.25 from 8 items
Observed RTP, 30d
—
no counted openings
Variance
3.3×
of price², per opening
Tail share
11.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
74.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
No counted openings yetOpenings inside battles and free cases are listed but never counted.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 0 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Souvenir AWP | Dragon Lore (Minimal Wear)Souvenir · weapon · covert | 1 in 100 | $125K 125,000 CSGOBIG_COIN | 13.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| Sticker | iBUYPOWER (Holo) | Katowice 2014sticker · legendary | 1 in 20 | $68K 68,000 CSGOBIG_COIN | 35.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| ★ Sport Gloves | Hedge Maze (Factory New)gloves · extraordinary | 1 in 20 | $26.8K 26,800 CSGOBIG_COIN | 13.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| ★ Butterfly Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire)knife · covert · Sapphire | 15.0% | $17.4K 17,400 CSGOBIG_COIN | 27.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| ★ Talon Knife | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Sapphire)knife · covert · Sapphire | 1 in 11 | $5,000 5,000 CSGOBIG_COIN | 4.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| ★ Bowie Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · covert · Ruby | 25.0% | $1,600 1,600 CSGOBIG_COIN | 4.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| ★ Karambit | Stained (Field-Tested)knife · covert | 25.0% | $565 565 CSGOBIG_COIN | 1.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| ★ Survival Knife | Case Hardened (Minimal Wear)knife · gold | 15.0% | $200 200 CSGOBIG_COIN | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
Values are CSGOBig's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgobig:api/cases/getDetails?id=1000, 11 Nov, 12:47 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
No history yet
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $10.7K | 90.00% | 8 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 75.0%legendary 5.0%extraordinary 5.0%gold 15.0%