Grim

A case on CSGOBig, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGOBig's own item price converted from csgobig coin at the rate on the site page.

Price

$1,380.00

1,380 CSGOBIG_COIN

Advertised RTP

87.56%

EV $1,208.36 from 24 items

Observed RTP, 30d

89.69%

6 openings, odds method

Variance

19.8×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 59

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

80.0%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

7 days

6 openings · below min

30 days

6 openings · below min

since tracking started

6 openings · below min

-0.5%223.0%446.5%

Small sample. 6 openings and 0.1 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	0	—	—	—
7d	6	89.69%±356.2	—	odds
30d	6	89.69%±356.2	—	odds
All	6	89.69%±356.2	—	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values24 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 6 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
Souvenir AWP \| Dragon Lore (Minimal Wear)Souvenir · weapon · covert	1 in 10,000	$238K 238,000 CSGOBIG_COIN	2.0%	0	0.0	—
Sticker \| Titan (Holo) \| Katowice 2014sticker · legendary	1 in 1,111	$93K 93,000 CSGOBIG_COIN	6.9%	0	0.0	—
Sticker \| iBUYPOWER (Holo) \| Katowice 2014sticker · legendary	1 in 1,000	$91K 91,000 CSGOBIG_COIN	7.5%	0	0.0	—
★ Sport Gloves \| Pandora's Box (Factory New)gloves · legendary	1 in 667	$53K 53,000 CSGOBIG_COIN	6.6%	0	0.0	—
Souvenir AWP \| Dragon Lore (Field-Tested)Souvenir · weapon · covert	1 in 500	$53K 53,000 CSGOBIG_COIN	8.8%	0	0.0	—
★ Sport Gloves \| Hedge Maze (Factory New)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 500	$30K 30,000 CSGOBIG_COIN	5.0%	0	0.0	—
★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife \| Crimson Web (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert	1 in 1,000	$22.4K 22,436 CSGOBIG_COIN	1.9%	0	0.0	—
★ Sport Gloves \| Vice (Factory New)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 500	$21K 21,000 CSGOBIG_COIN	3.5%	0	0.0	—
★ Butterfly Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire)knife · covert · Sapphire	1 in 500	$17.3K 17,300 CSGOBIG_COIN	2.9%	0	0.0	—
★ Butterfly Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald)knife · covert · Emerald	1 in 500	$16K 16,000 CSGOBIG_COIN	2.6%	0	0.0	—
★ Specialist Gloves \| Crimson Kimono (Factory New)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 400	$12.3K 12,300 CSGOBIG_COIN	2.5%	0	0.0	—
★ Sport Gloves \| Pandora's Box (Minimal Wear)gloves · legendary	1 in 200	$11K 11,000 CSGOBIG_COIN	4.6%	0	0.0	—
★ Butterfly Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · covert · Ruby	1 in 500	$10.4K 10,450 CSGOBIG_COIN	1.7%	0	0.0	—
★ Sport Gloves \| Hedge Maze (Minimal Wear)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 200	$7,200 7,200 CSGOBIG_COIN	3.0%	0	0.0	—
★ Butterfly Knife \| Lore (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 33	$6,026 6,026 CSGOBIG_COIN	15.0%	1	0.2	—
AWP \| Dragon Lore (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 200	$4,900 4,900 CSGOBIG_COIN	2.0%	0	0.0	—
★ Specialist Gloves \| Crimson Kimono (Minimal Wear)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 33	$3,225 3,225 CSGOBIG_COIN	8.0%	0	0.2	—
★ Butterfly Knife \| Fade (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 100	$3,084 3,084 CSGOBIG_COIN	2.6%	0	0.1	—
★ Butterfly Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4)knife · covert · Phase 4	1 in 167	$2,383 2,383 CSGOBIG_COIN	1.2%	0	0.0	—
★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · Covert	1 in 100	$1,949 1,949 CSGOBIG_COIN	1.6%	0	0.1	—
★ Butterfly Knife \| Crimson Web (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 33	$1,700 1,700 CSGOBIG_COIN	4.2%	0	0.2	—
★ M9 Bayonet \| Marble Fade (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 33	$1,500 1,500 CSGOBIG_COIN	3.7%	0	0.2	—
★ Sport Gloves \| Vice (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 50	$1,400 1,400 CSGOBIG_COIN	2.3%	1	0.1	—
P250 \| Sand Dune (Minimal Wear)weapon · consumer	80.0%	$0.02 0.02 CSGOBIG_COIN	0.0%	4	4.8	0.83×

Values are CSGOBig's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgobig:api/cases/getDetails?id=10003, 11 Nov, 06:29 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

★ Butterfly Knife | Lore (Factory New)knife · covert$1,3801,380 CSGOBIG_COIN$6,0266,026 CSGOBIG_COIN4.37x2d

★ Sport Gloves | Vice (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary$1,3801,380 CSGOBIG_COIN$1,4001,400 CSGOBIG_COIN1.01x2d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

★ Butterfly Knife | Lore (Factory New)knife · covert$1,3801,380 CSGOBIG_COIN$6,0266,026 CSGOBIG_COIN4.37x2d

P250 | Sand Dune (Minimal Wear)weapon · consumer$1,3801,380 CSGOBIG_COIN$0.020.02 CSGOBIG_COIN0.00x2d

★ Sport Gloves | Vice (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary$1,3801,380 CSGOBIG_COIN$1,4001,400 CSGOBIG_COIN1.01x2d

P250 | Sand Dune (Minimal Wear)weapon · consumerdrew$1,3801,380 CSGOBIG_COIN$0.020.02 CSGOBIG_COIN0.00x2d

P250 | Sand Dune (Minimal Wear)weapon · consumer$1,3801,380 CSGOBIG_COIN$0.020.02 CSGOBIG_COIN0.00x2d

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 87.56%

No data in this window

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
3 Nov, 04:27 UTC	$1,380	87.56%	24

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 12.0%legendary 0.8%extraordinary 6.2%Covert 1.0%consumer 80.0%best hit $6,026 (4.37x)