Trackmaster

A case on CSGOBig, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGOBig's own item price converted from csgobig coin at the rate on the site page.

Price

$32.50

32.5 CSGOBIG_COIN

Advertised RTP

90.00%

EV $29.25 from 12 items

Observed RTP, 30d

4.42%

7 openings, odds method

Variance

128.6×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 100

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

79.0%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

7 days

7 openings · below min

30 days

7 openings · below min

since tracking started

7 openings · below min

-0.5%422.5%845.5%

Small sample. 7 openings and 0.1 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	0	—	—	—
7d	7	4.42%±840.2	—	odds
30d	7	4.42%±840.2	—	odds
All	7	4.42%±840.2	—	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values12 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 7 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
AK-47 \| Wild Lotus (Factory New)weapon · legendary	1 in 10,000	$19K 19,000 CSGOBIG_COIN	6.5%	0	0.0	—
★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)StatTrak · knife · covert · Ruby	1 in 2,000	$13.8K 13,750 CSGOBIG_COIN	23.5%	0	0.0	—
★ Talon Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New)knife · epic	1 in 227	$845 845 CSGOBIG_COIN	12.7%	0	0.0	—
★ Ursus Knife \| Fade (Factory New)knife · rare	1 in 200	$548 548 CSGOBIG_COIN	9.4%	0	0.0	—
★ StatTrak™ Gut Knife \| Lore (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert	1 in 100	$311 311 CSGOBIG_COIN	10.6%	0	0.1	—
AWP \| Asiimov (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 50	$98.00 98 CSGOBIG_COIN	6.7%	0	0.1	—
AWP \| Containment Breach (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 20	$55.00 55 CSGOBIG_COIN	9.4%	0	0.4	—
USP-S \| Monster Mashup (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pink	12.0%	$35.00 35 CSGOBIG_COIN	14.4%	0	0.8	—
CZ75-Auto \| Poison Dart (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #4b69ff	13.0%	$5.00 5 CSGOBIG_COIN	2.2%	0	0.9	—
P250 \| Visions (Minimal Wear)weapon · pink	17.0%	$5.00 5 CSGOBIG_COIN	2.9%	2	1.2	1.68×
P90 \| Storm (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #B0C3D9	20.0%	$2.50 2.5 CSGOBIG_COIN	1.7%	0	1.4	0.00×
PP-Bizon Sand Dashed (Battle-Scarred)other · #B0C3D9	29.0%	$0.01 0.01 CSGOBIG_COIN	0.0%	5	2.0	2.46×

Values are CSGOBig's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgobig:api/cases/getDetails?id=1004, 11 Nov, 13:05 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

PP-Bizon Sand Dashed (Battle-Scarred)other · #B0C3D9$32.5032.5 CSGOBIG_COIN$0.010.01 CSGOBIG_COIN0.00x1d

P250 | Visions (Minimal Wear)weapon · pinkDarth Dementia$32.5032.5 CSGOBIG_COIN$5.005 CSGOBIG_COIN0.15x1d

PP-Bizon Sand Dashed (Battle-Scarred)other · #B0C3D9$32.5032.5 CSGOBIG_COIN$0.010.01 CSGOBIG_COIN0.00x1d

P250 | Visions (Minimal Wear)weapon · pink$32.5032.5 CSGOBIG_COIN$5.005 CSGOBIG_COIN0.15x1d

PP-Bizon Sand Dashed (Battle-Scarred)other · #B0C3D9$32.5032.5 CSGOBIG_COIN$0.010.01 CSGOBIG_COIN0.00x1d

PP-Bizon Sand Dashed (Battle-Scarred)other · #B0C3D9$32.5032.5 CSGOBIG_COIN$0.010.01 CSGOBIG_COIN0.00x4d

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
3 Nov, 04:27 UTC	$32.50	90.00%	12

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedlegendary 0.0%covert 8.1%epic 0.4%rare 0.5%pink 29.0%#4b69ff 13.0%#B0C3D9 49.0%best hit —