Juicy Budget

A case on CSGOBig, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGOBig's own item price converted from csgobig coin at the rate on the site page.

Price

$521.98

522 CSGOBIG_COIN

Advertised RTP

87.00%

EV $454.12 from 24 items

Observed RTP, 30d

47.91%

4 openings, odds method

Variance

49.7×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 45

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

89.8%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

1 openings · below min

7 days

4 openings · below min

30 days

4 openings · below min

since tracking started

4 openings · below min

-0.5%691.3%1383.0%

Small sample. 4 openings and 0.1 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	1	0.02%±1382.1	—	odds
7d	4	47.91%±691.0	—	odds
30d	4	47.91%±691.0	—	odds
All	4	47.91%±691.0	—	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values24 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 4 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
Souvenir AWP \| Dragon Lore (Minimal Wear)Souvenir · weapon · covert	1 in 10,000	$232K 232,000 CSGOBIG_COIN	5.1%	0	0.0	—
★ Karambit \| Case Hardened (Field Tested) - Pattern 387knife · #EB4B4B	1 in 10,000	$200K 200,000 CSGOBIG_COIN	4.4%	0	0.0	—
Sticker \| Titan (Holo) \| Katowice 2014sticker · legendary	1 in 20,000	$91K 91,000 CSGOBIG_COIN	1.0%	0	0.0	—
Sticker \| iBUYPOWER (Holo) \| Katowice 2014sticker · legendary	1 in 20,000	$89K 89,000 CSGOBIG_COIN	1.0%	0	0.0	—
Sticker \| Reason Gaming (Holo) \| Katowice 2014sticker · remarkable	1 in 20,000	$74K 74,000 CSGOBIG_COIN	0.8%	0	0.0	—
★ Sport Gloves \| Pandora's Box (Factory New)gloves · legendary	1 in 20,000	$54K 54,000 CSGOBIG_COIN	0.6%	0	0.0	—
Souvenir AWP \| Dragon Lore (Field-Tested)Souvenir · weapon · covert	1 in 20,000	$52K 52,000 CSGOBIG_COIN	0.6%	0	0.0	—
Sticker \| Vox Eminor (Holo) \| Katowice 2014sticker · legendary	1 in 20,000	$40K 40,000 CSGOBIG_COIN	0.4%	0	0.0	—
Souvenir AWP \| Dragon Lore (Battle-Scarred)Souvenir · weapon · covert	1 in 20,000	$35K 35,000 CSGOBIG_COIN	0.4%	0	0.0	—
Sticker \| Team Dignitas (Holo) \| Katowice 2014sticker · remarkable	1 in 20,000	$33K 33,000 CSGOBIG_COIN	0.4%	0	0.0	—
EMS Katowice 2014 Legendsother · base	1 in 20,000	$30K 30,000 CSGOBIG_COIN	0.3%	0	0.0	—
★ Sport Gloves \| Hedge Maze (Factory New)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 20,000	$30K 30,000 CSGOBIG_COIN	0.3%	0	0.0	—
★ Sport Gloves \| Vice (Factory New)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 2,000	$21K 21,000 CSGOBIG_COIN	2.3%	0	0.0	—
★ Butterfly Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire)knife · covert · Sapphire	1 in 20,000	$17.3K 17,300 CSGOBIG_COIN	0.2%	0	0.0	—
★ Butterfly Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald)knife · covert · Emerald	1 in 2,000	$16K 16,000 CSGOBIG_COIN	1.8%	0	0.0	—
Sticker \| HellRaisers (Holo) \| Katowice 2014sticker · remarkable	1 in 100	$11K 11,000 CSGOBIG_COIN	24.2%	0	0.0	—
★ Butterfly Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · covert · Ruby	1 in 2,000	$10.4K 10,450 CSGOBIG_COIN	1.2%	0	0.0	—
Sticker \| Natus Vincere (Holo) \| Katowice 2014sticker · remarkable	1 in 100	$8,000 8,000 CSGOBIG_COIN	17.6%	0	0.0	—
Sticker \| LGB eSports (Holo) \| Katowice 2014sticker · remarkable	1 in 100	$5,600 5,600 CSGOBIG_COIN	12.3%	0	0.0	—
★ Butterfly Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New)knife · gold	1 in 100	$2,383 2,383 CSGOBIG_COIN	5.2%	0	0.0	—
★ Sport Gloves \| Vice (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 100	$1,400 1,400 CSGOBIG_COIN	3.1%	0	0.0	—
Sticker \| Team LDLC.com \| Katowice 2014sticker · high	1 in 20	$1,000 1,000 CSGOBIG_COIN	11.0%	1	0.2	—
Sticker \| LGB eSports \| Katowice 2014sticker · high	1 in 20	$520 520 CSGOBIG_COIN	5.7%	0	0.2	—
Glock-18 \| Death Rattle (Minimal Wear)weapon · industrial	84.8%	$0.12 0.12 CSGOBIG_COIN	0.0%	3	3.4	0.88×

Values are CSGOBig's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgobig:api/cases/getDetails?id=10041, 11 Nov, 06:29 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

Sticker | Team LDLC.com | Katowice 2014sticker · high$522522 CSGOBIG_COIN$1,0001,000 CSGOBIG_COIN1.92x3d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

Glock-18 | Death Rattle (Minimal Wear)weapon · industrial$522522 CSGOBIG_COIN$0.120.12 CSGOBIG_COIN0.00x18h

Sticker | Team LDLC.com | Katowice 2014sticker · high$522522 CSGOBIG_COIN$1,0001,000 CSGOBIG_COIN1.92x3d

Glock-18 | Death Rattle (Minimal Wear)weapon · industrial$522522 CSGOBIG_COIN$0.120.12 CSGOBIG_COIN0.00x3d

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 87.00%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
3 Nov, 04:27 UTC	$522	87.00%	24

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 0.1%#EB4B4B 0.0%legendary 0.0%remarkable 3.0%base 0.0%extraordinary 1.1%gold 1.0%high 10.0%industrial 84.8%best hit $1,000 (1.92x)