Jordanr
A case on CSGOBig, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGOBig's own item price converted from csgobig coin at the rate on the site page.
Price
$107.73
108 CSGOBIG_COIN
Advertised RTP
87.50%
EV $94.26 from 10 items
Observed RTP, 30d
53.11%
13 openings, odds method
Variance
45.4×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 18
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
80.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 13 openings and 0.7 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values10 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 13 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are CSGOBig's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgobig:api/cases/getDetails?id=10044, 11 Nov, 13:05 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
★ Specialist Gloves | Foundation (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary$108108 CSGOBIG_COIN$298298 CSGOBIG_COIN2.77x
Sticker | Door Stuck (Foil)sticker · Legendarysvirkstas$108108 CSGOBIG_COIN$0.320.32 CSGOBIG_COIN0.00x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 87.50%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $108 | 87.50% | 10 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedlegendary 0.0%covert 4.1%rare 1.5%classified 3.5%extraordinary 4.5%restricted 6.4%Legendary 80.0%best hit —