Killdozer
A case on CSGOBig, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGOBig's own item price converted from csgobig coin at the rate on the site page.
Price
$7.95
7.95 CSGOBIG_COIN
Advertised RTP
87.55%
EV $6.96 from 11 items
Observed RTP, 30d
127.30%
361 openings, odds method
Variance
130.8×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 333
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
99.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 361 openings and 1.1 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values11 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 361 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are CSGOBig's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgobig:api/cases/getDetails?id=10047, 11 Nov, 06:29 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
★ Huntsman Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl)knife · covert · Black Pearl$7.957.95 CSGOBIG_COIN$2,2502,250 CSGOBIG_COIN283.0x
Latest dropsnewest first
P250 | Sand Dune (Battle-Scarred)weapon · consumerwoodsnatch22$7.957.95 CSGOBIG_COIN$0.010.01 CSGOBIG_COIN0.00x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 87.55%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $7.95 | 87.55% | 11 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 0.6%extraordinary 0.2%epic 0.1%restricted 0.1%consumer 99.0%best hit $2,250 (283.0x)