Stonks Surge

A case on CSGOBig, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGOBig's own item price converted from csgobig coin at the rate on the site page.

Price

$30.00

30 CSGOBIG_COIN

Advertised RTP

90.00%

EV $27.00 from 13 items

Observed RTP, 30d

16.47%

40 openings, odds method

Variance

45.5×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 100

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

90.0%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

5 openings · below min

7 days

38 openings · below min

30 days

40 openings · below min

since tracking started

40 openings · below min

-0.5%297.0%594.5%

Small sample. 40 openings and 0.4 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	5	2.53%±591.1	—	odds
7d	38	17.33%±214.4	—	odds
30d	40	16.47%±209.0	—	odds
All	40	16.47%±209.0	—	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values13 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 40 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ Bayonet \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire)knife · covert · Sapphire	1 in 400	$3,398 3,398 CSGOBIG_COIN	31.5%	0	0.1	—
★ Skeleton Knife \| Fade (Minimal Wear)knife · legendary	1 in 400	$1,655 1,655 CSGOBIG_COIN	15.3%	0	0.1	—
★ Bayonet \| Fade (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 200	$947 947 CSGOBIG_COIN	17.5%	0	0.2	—
★ StatTrak™ Flip Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert	1 in 200	$378 378 CSGOBIG_COIN	7.0%	0	0.2	—
★ Flip Knife \| Freehand (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert	1 in 100	$183 183 CSGOBIG_COIN	6.8%	0	0.4	—
★ Navaja Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 100	$130 130 CSGOBIG_COIN	4.8%	0	0.4	—
AWP \| Asiimov (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 40	$76.21 76.21 CSGOBIG_COIN	7.1%	1	1.0	1.00×
AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 100	$60.74 60.74 CSGOBIG_COIN	2.2%	0	0.4	—
USP-S \| Kill Confirmed (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 33	$45.00 45 CSGOBIG_COIN	5.0%	2	1.2	1.67×
CZ75-Auto \| Eco (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	25.0%	$2.20 2.2 CSGOBIG_COIN	2.0%	12	10.0	1.20×
Negev \| dev_texture (Well-Worn)weapon · violet	25.0%	$0.79 0.79 CSGOBIG_COIN	0.7%	6	10.0	0.60×
AUG \| Contractor (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #777777	10.0%	$0.03 0.03 CSGOBIG_COIN	0.0%	3	4.0	0.75×
PP-Bizon Sand Dashed (Battle-Scarred)other · #B0C3D9	30.0%	$0.01 0.01 CSGOBIG_COIN	0.0%	16	12.0	1.33×

Values are CSGOBig's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgobig:api/cases/getDetails?id=1005, 11 Nov, 13:05 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

PP-Bizon Sand Dashed (Battle-Scarred)other · #B0C3D9$30.0030 CSGOBIG_COIN$0.010.01 CSGOBIG_COIN0.00x7h

Negev | dev_texture (Well-Worn)weapon · violet$30.0030 CSGOBIG_COIN$0.790.79 CSGOBIG_COIN0.03x7h

CZ75-Auto | Eco (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted$30.0030 CSGOBIG_COIN$2.202.2 CSGOBIG_COIN0.07x7h

Negev | dev_texture (Well-Worn)weapon · violet$30.0030 CSGOBIG_COIN$0.790.79 CSGOBIG_COIN0.03x7h

PP-Bizon Sand Dashed (Battle-Scarred)other · #B0C3D9Default Name$30.0030 CSGOBIG_COIN$0.010.01 CSGOBIG_COIN0.00x7h

CZ75-Auto | Eco (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted$30.0030 CSGOBIG_COIN$2.202.2 CSGOBIG_COIN0.07x1d

CZ75-Auto | Eco (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted$30.0030 CSGOBIG_COIN$2.202.2 CSGOBIG_COIN0.07x2d

Negev | dev_texture (Well-Worn)weapon · violet$30.0030 CSGOBIG_COIN$0.790.79 CSGOBIG_COIN0.03x2d

CZ75-Auto | Eco (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted$30.0030 CSGOBIG_COIN$2.202.2 CSGOBIG_COIN0.07x2d

PP-Bizon Sand Dashed (Battle-Scarred)other · #B0C3D9$30.0030 CSGOBIG_COIN$0.010.01 CSGOBIG_COIN0.00x3d

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
3 Nov, 04:27 UTC	$30.00	90.00%	13

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 9.8%legendary 0.3%restricted 25.0%violet 25.0%#777777 10.0%#B0C3D9 30.0%best hit —