Kingdom
A case on CSGOBig, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGOBig's own item price converted from csgobig coin at the rate on the site page.
Price
$10.00
10 CSGOBIG_COIN
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $9.00 from 10 items
Observed RTP, 30d
48.72%
52 openings, odds method
Variance
403.8×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 96
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
77.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 52 openings and 0.5 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values10 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 52 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ Karambit | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · covert · Ruby | 1 in 10,000 | $14.3K 14,250 CSGOBIG_COIN | 15.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| ★ M9 Bayonet | Crimson Web (Factory New)knife · covert | 1 in 2,500 | $7,081 7,081 CSGOBIG_COIN | 31.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| MAC-10 | Propaganda (Factory New)weapon · classified | 1 in 101 | $49.00 49 CSGOBIG_COIN | 5.4% | 0 | 0.5 | — |
| MAG-7 | Bulldozer (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted | 10.0% | $25.00 25 CSGOBIG_COIN | 27.8% | 7 | 5.2 | 1.35× |
| M4A1-S | Nightmare (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified | 12.0% | $10.00 10 CSGOBIG_COIN | 13.3% | 5 | 6.2 | 0.80× |
| MP7 | Bloodsport (Factory New)weapon · covert | 1 in 20 | $5.00 5 CSGOBIG_COIN | 2.8% | 2 | 2.6 | 0.77× |
| Glock-18 | Grinder (Factory New)weapon · Mythical | 10.0% | $1.97 1.97 CSGOBIG_COIN | 2.2% | 7 | 5.2 | 1.35× |
| Sealed Graffiti | OMG (Bazooka Pink)graffiti · #B0C3D9 | 15.0% | $0.69 0.69 CSGOBIG_COIN | 1.1% | 6 | 7.8 | 0.77× |
| AUG | Contractor (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #777777 | 11.7% | $0.03 0.03 CSGOBIG_COIN | 0.0% | 8 | 6.1 | 1.31× |
| PP-Bizon Sand Dashed (Battle-Scarred)other · #B0C3D9 | 35.2% | $0.01 0.01 CSGOBIG_COIN | 0.0% | 17 | 18.3 | 0.93× |
Values are CSGOBig's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgobig:api/cases/getDetails?id=1006, 11 Nov, 06:29 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Sealed Graffiti | OMG (Bazooka Pink)graffiti · #B0C3D9$10.0010 CSGOBIG_COIN$0.690.69 CSGOBIG_COIN0.07x
PP-Bizon Sand Dashed (Battle-Scarred)other · #B0C3D9$10.0010 CSGOBIG_COIN$0.010.01 CSGOBIG_COIN0.00x
Sealed Graffiti | OMG (Bazooka Pink)graffiti · #B0C3D9red3mption$10.0010 CSGOBIG_COIN$0.690.69 CSGOBIG_COIN0.07x
PP-Bizon Sand Dashed (Battle-Scarred)other · #B0C3D9$10.0010 CSGOBIG_COIN$0.010.01 CSGOBIG_COIN0.00x
PP-Bizon Sand Dashed (Battle-Scarred)other · #B0C3D9$10.0010 CSGOBIG_COIN$0.010.01 CSGOBIG_COIN0.00x
PP-Bizon Sand Dashed (Battle-Scarred)other · #B0C3D9$10.0010 CSGOBIG_COIN$0.010.01 CSGOBIG_COIN0.00x
PP-Bizon Sand Dashed (Battle-Scarred)other · #B0C3D9$10.0010 CSGOBIG_COIN$0.010.01 CSGOBIG_COIN0.00x
PP-Bizon Sand Dashed (Battle-Scarred)other · #B0C3D9$10.0010 CSGOBIG_COIN$0.010.01 CSGOBIG_COIN0.00x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $10.00 | 90.00% | 10 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 5.1%classified 13.0%restricted 10.0%Mythical 10.0%#B0C3D9 50.2%#777777 11.7%best hit —