Birb
A case on CSGOBig, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGOBig's own item price converted from csgobig coin at the rate on the site page.
Price
$78.44
78.44 CSGOBIG_COIN
Advertised RTP
87.50%
EV $68.64 from 18 items
Observed RTP, 30d
109.21%
39 openings, odds method
Variance
15.6×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 33
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
85.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 39 openings and 1.2 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values18 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 39 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are CSGOBig's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgobig:api/cases/getDetails?id=10060, 11 Nov, 06:29 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
★ StatTrak™ Ursus Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)StatTrak · knife · #EB4B4B · RubytorVic!$78.4478.44 CSGOBIG_COIN$1,5771,577 CSGOBIG_COIN20.10x
Latest dropsnewest first
Tec-9 | Nuclear Threat (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted$78.4478.44 CSGOBIG_COIN$120120 CSGOBIG_COIN1.53x
Tec-9 | Nuclear Threat (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted$78.4478.44 CSGOBIG_COIN$120120 CSGOBIG_COIN1.53x
★ Flip Knife | Marble Fade (Factory New)knife · covert$78.4478.44 CSGOBIG_COIN$469469 CSGOBIG_COIN5.98x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 87.50%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $78.44 | 87.50% | 18 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 11.5%legendary 0.1%#EB4B4B 0.5%Covert 3.0%restricted 5.0%high 40.0%remarkable 40.0%best hit $1,577 (20.10x)