Fer

A case on CSGOBig, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGOBig's own item price converted from csgobig coin at the rate on the site page.

Price

$111.00

111 CSGOBIG_COIN

Advertised RTP

88.95%

EV $98.74 from 10 items

Observed RTP, 30d

23.51%

47 openings, odds method

Variance

30.2×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 33

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

80.0%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

7 days

30 openings · below min

30 days

47 openings · below min

since tracking started

47 openings · below min

-0.5%105.8%212.0%

Small sample. 47 openings and 1.4 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	0	—	—	—
7d	30	14.41%±196.7	—	odds
30d	47	23.51%±157.2	—	odds
All	47	23.51%±157.2	—	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values10 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 47 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ Butterfly Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire)knife · covert · Sapphire	1 in 800	$13.4K 13,391 CSGOBIG_COIN	17.0%	0	0.1	—
★ M9 Bayonet \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire)knife · covert · Sapphire	1 in 800	$10K 10,045 CSGOBIG_COIN	12.7%	0	0.1	—
M4A1-S \| Blue Phosphor (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 133	$893 893 CSGOBIG_COIN	6.8%	0	0.4	—
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Case Hardened (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 50	$797 797 CSGOBIG_COIN	16.1%	0	0.9	—
★ Hand Wraps \| Cobalt Skulls (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 33	$440 440 CSGOBIG_COIN	13.4%	1	1.4	0.71×
M4A1-S \| Printstream (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 25	$383 383 CSGOBIG_COIN	15.5%	0	1.9	0.00×
Souvenir CZ75-Auto \| Chalice (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · restricted	10.0%	$112 112 CSGOBIG_COIN	11.3%	3	4.7	0.64×
Desert Eagle \| Printstream (Field-Tested)weapon · Ancient	25.0%	$27.07 27.07 CSGOBIG_COIN	6.9%	16	11.8	1.36×
Sticker \| fer \| Krakow 2017sticker · #4B69FF	30.0%	$1.19 1.19 CSGOBIG_COIN	0.4%	16	14.1	1.13×
PP-Bizon Sand Dashed (Battle-Scarred)other · #B0C3D9	25.0%	$0.01 0.01 CSGOBIG_COIN	0.0%	11	11.8	0.94×

Values are CSGOBig's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgobig:api/cases/getDetails?id=10065, 11 Nov, 06:29 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

Desert Eagle | Printstream (Field-Tested)weapon · AncientLeitao$111111 CSGOBIG_COIN$27.0727.07 CSGOBIG_COIN0.24x1d

PP-Bizon Sand Dashed (Battle-Scarred)other · #B0C3D9Leitao$111111 CSGOBIG_COIN$0.010.01 CSGOBIG_COIN0.00x1d

Desert Eagle | Printstream (Field-Tested)weapon · Ancient$111111 CSGOBIG_COIN$27.0727.07 CSGOBIG_COIN0.24x1d

Sticker | fer | Krakow 2017sticker · #4B69FF$111111 CSGOBIG_COIN$1.191.19 CSGOBIG_COIN0.01x1d

PP-Bizon Sand Dashed (Battle-Scarred)other · #B0C3D9$111111 CSGOBIG_COIN$0.010.01 CSGOBIG_COIN0.00x1d

Desert Eagle | Printstream (Field-Tested)weapon · Ancient$111111 CSGOBIG_COIN$27.0727.07 CSGOBIG_COIN0.24x1d

Desert Eagle | Printstream (Field-Tested)weapon · Ancient$111111 CSGOBIG_COIN$27.0727.07 CSGOBIG_COIN0.24x2d

Sticker | fer | Krakow 2017sticker · #4B69FF$111111 CSGOBIG_COIN$1.191.19 CSGOBIG_COIN0.01x2d

PP-Bizon Sand Dashed (Battle-Scarred)other · #B0C3D9$111111 CSGOBIG_COIN$0.010.01 CSGOBIG_COIN0.00x2d

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 88.95%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
3 Nov, 04:27 UTC	$111	88.95%	10

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 4.3%classified 2.8%extraordinary 3.0%restricted 10.0%Ancient 25.0%#4B69FF 30.0%#B0C3D9 25.0%best hit —