Barr4k
A case on CSGOBig, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGOBig's own item price converted from csgobig coin at the rate on the site page.
Price
$40.44
40.44 CSGOBIG_COIN
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $36.39 from 9 items
Observed RTP, 30d
53.33%
36 openings, odds method
Variance
17.6×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 33
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
85.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 36 openings and 1.1 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values9 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 36 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ Butterfly Knife | Marble Fade (Factory New)knife · covert | 1 in 500 | $2,751 2,751 CSGOBIG_COIN | 15.1% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| AWP | Medusa (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert | 1 in 333 | $1,899 1,899 CSGOBIG_COIN | 15.7% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| ★ Sport Gloves | Vice (Battle-Scarred)gloves · extraordinary | 1 in 200 | $585 585 CSGOBIG_COIN | 8.0% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| M4A1-S | Printstream (Battle-Scarred)weapon · red | 1 in 50 | $207 207 CSGOBIG_COIN | 11.4% | 1 | 0.7 | — |
| AK-47 | Bloodsport (Field-Tested)weapon · covert | 1 in 25 | $184 184 CSGOBIG_COIN | 20.3% | 1 | 1.4 | 0.69× |
| USP-S | Kill Confirmed (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert | 1 in 13 | $48.97 48.97 CSGOBIG_COIN | 10.8% | 1 | 2.9 | 0.35× |
| Desert Eagle | Printstream (Battle-Scarred)weapon · red | 15.0% | $25.83 25.83 CSGOBIG_COIN | 10.6% | 9 | 5.4 | 1.67× |
| Sticker | Runtime (Holo)sticker · remarkable | 60.0% | $4.95 4.95 CSGOBIG_COIN | 8.2% | 21 | 21.6 | 0.97× |
| PP-Bizon Sand Dashed (Battle-Scarred)other · #B0C3D9 | 1 in 10 | $0.01 0.01 CSGOBIG_COIN | 0.0% | 3 | 3.6 | 0.83× |
Values are CSGOBig's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgobig:api/cases/getDetails?id=10068, 11 Nov, 06:29 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Sticker | Runtime (Holo)sticker · remarkableDick to small to Fit$40.4440.44 CSGOBIG_COIN$4.954.95 CSGOBIG_COIN0.12x
PP-Bizon Sand Dashed (Battle-Scarred)other · #B0C3D9$40.4440.44 CSGOBIG_COIN$0.010.01 CSGOBIG_COIN0.00x
Desert Eagle | Printstream (Battle-Scarred)weapon · red$40.4440.44 CSGOBIG_COIN$25.8325.83 CSGOBIG_COIN0.64x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $40.44 | 90.00% | 9 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 12.5%extraordinary 0.5%red 17.0%remarkable 60.0%#B0C3D9 10.0%best hit —