Ricardoquik
A case on CSGOBig, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGOBig's own item price converted from csgobig coin at the rate on the site page.
Price
$19.88
19.88 CSGOBIG_COIN
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $17.89 from 13 items
Observed RTP, 30d
95.18%
29 openings, odds method
Variance
43.8×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 11
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
75.8%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 29 openings and 2.7 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values13 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 31 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are CSGOBig's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgobig:api/cases/getDetails?id=10071, 11 Nov, 06:29 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Souvenir MAC-10 | Gold Brick (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · restricted$19.8819.88 CSGOBIG_COIN$70.0070 CSGOBIG_COIN3.52x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $19.88 | 90.00% | 13 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 15.1%restricted 9.1%mil spec 14.7%violet 28.7%consumer 10.6%classified 1.6%#4B69FF 13.5%Mil Spec Grade 6.1%#B0C3D9 0.6%best hit —