Headed
A case on CSGOBig, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGOBig's own item price converted from csgobig coin at the rate on the site page.
Price
$572.00
572 CSGOBIG_COIN
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $514.78 from 9 items
Observed RTP, 30d
0.01%
6 openings, odds method
Variance
28.6×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 63
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
93.3%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 6 openings and 0.1 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values9 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 6 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sticker | iBUYPOWER (Holo) | Katowice 2014sticker · legendary | 1 in 1,000 | $69.5K 69,500 CSGOBIG_COIN | 13.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| AK-47 | Wild Lotus (Factory New)weapon · legendary | 1 in 333 | $21.1K 21,053 CSGOBIG_COIN | 12.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| AWP | Gungnir (Factory New)weapon · covert | 1 in 200 | $16.1K 16,141 CSGOBIG_COIN | 15.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| AWP | Dragon Lore (Factory New)weapon · covert | 1 in 143 | $13.8K 13,800 CSGOBIG_COIN | 18.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| ★ Butterfly Knife | Fade (Factory New)knife · covert | 1 in 67 | $4,637 4,637 CSGOBIG_COIN | 13.5% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| M4A4 | Poseidon (Factory New)weapon · classified | 1 in 63 | $4,300 4,300 CSGOBIG_COIN | 13.4% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| ★ M9 Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4)knife · covert · Phase 4 | 1 in 50 | $3,322 3,322 CSGOBIG_COIN | 12.9% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| Sealed Graffiti | Eat It (Brick Red)graffiti · #B0C3D9 | 93.3% | $0.03 0.03 CSGOBIG_COIN | 0.0% | 6 | 5.6 | 1.07× |
| PP-Bizon Sand Dashed (Battle-Scarred)other · #B0C3D9 | 1 in 10,000 | $0.01 0.01 CSGOBIG_COIN | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
Values are CSGOBig's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgobig:api/cases/getDetails?id=10074, 11 Nov, 06:29 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Sealed Graffiti | Eat It (Brick Red)graffiti · #B0C3D9$572572 CSGOBIG_COIN$0.030.03 CSGOBIG_COIN0.00x
Sealed Graffiti | Eat It (Brick Red)graffiti · #B0C3D9$572572 CSGOBIG_COIN$0.030.03 CSGOBIG_COIN0.00x
Sealed Graffiti | Eat It (Brick Red)graffiti · #B0C3D9$572572 CSGOBIG_COIN$0.030.03 CSGOBIG_COIN0.00x
Sealed Graffiti | Eat It (Brick Red)graffiti · #B0C3D9$572572 CSGOBIG_COIN$0.030.03 CSGOBIG_COIN0.00x
Sealed Graffiti | Eat It (Brick Red)graffiti · #B0C3D9Dabbed | 7k weekly LB$572572 CSGOBIG_COIN$0.030.03 CSGOBIG_COIN0.00x
Sealed Graffiti | Eat It (Brick Red)graffiti · #B0C3D9$572572 CSGOBIG_COIN$0.030.03 CSGOBIG_COIN0.00x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%
No data in this window
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $572 | 90.00% | 9 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedlegendary 0.4%covert 4.7%classified 1.6%#B0C3D9 93.3%best hit —